Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | NBA on TNT (1/4): Whose House? Jokic’s House

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It’s a quiet night around the National Basketball Association as only two games are lined up for Thursday, Jan. 4. Having said that, there’ll be a lot of star power in attendance when the Denver Nuggets (24-11) collide with the Golden State Warriors (16-17) in the second of two nationally broadcast games on TNT at 10 p.m. ET.

The Nuggets finally return to action after notching Monday’s 111-93 win over the Charlotte Hornets, led by Jamal Murray’s team-high 25 points, which included sinking 5-of-9 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry’s 36-point effort helped the Warriors snap a three-game skid with a 121-115 win against the Orlando Magic two nights ago.

As usual, this game offers plenty of NBA betting opportunities that novice and expert bettors alike won’t want to miss. Fortunately, Betting News is here to help with tonight’s Nuggets vs Warriors prediction and best bets.

Nuggets vs Warriors NBA on TNT Tonight (1/4)

Nuggets vs Warriors Matchup Information

• Matchup: Denver Nuggets (24-11, 10-8 Away) vs. Golden State Warriors (16-17, 10-8 Home)
• Venue & Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, CA)
• Date: Thursday, Jan. 4, 2023
• Game Time: 11:14 a.m. Eastern Time
• Nuggets vs. Warriors TV Channel Info: TNT

Nuggets vs Warriors Odds & Spread

Nuggets vs. Warriors odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Jan. 4 at 11:11 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Nuggets vs Warriors Spread

• Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-115)
• Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-105)

Nuggets vs Warriors Over/Under

• Over 235.5 Points (-110)
• Under 235.5 Points (-110)

Nuggets vs Warriors Moneyline

• Denver Nuggets (-156)
• Golden State Warriors (+136)

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Nuggets vs Warriors Betting Trends

• Denver is 5-0 straight up in its last five games vs. Golden State.
• Golden State is 9-2 straight up in its last 11 home games.
• Denver is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games played in January.
• Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games vs. Denver.
• The total hit the Under in eight of Denver’s last 10 games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Golden State’s last six games vs. Denver.

Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction & Pick (1/4)

Tonight’s meeting marks the third of four Nuggets-Warriors matchups lined up for the 2023-24 NBA season.

Having said that, Golden State hopes this game ends differently than the first two. After all, it was the Nuggets who emerged victorious in the first two encounters, notching a 108-105 victory on Nov. 8 before earning a 120-114 win over the Warriors on Christmas Day. It’s worth noting that both of those games occurred at Ball Arena, meaning time will tell if things change now that Steve Kerr’s team holds the home-court advantage.

After an abysmal 1-6 SU record through their first seven home games this season, the Warriors have won nine of their last 11 outings at Chase Center. A consistent three-point presence has been key behind that success as Golden State is averaging 15.5 threes made on 39.2% shooting during that span. Unsurprisingly, Curry and Klay Thompson have led the charge with 4.9 and 3.4 threes made per game, respectively.

Nevertheless, the Warriors can’t expect an easy night on the perimeter. The Nuggets allow the fifth-fewest threes on the ninth-lowest success rate and actually rank second and 10th, respectively, when it comes to those stats on the road.

Another thing going against the Warriors is that they haven’t had much success against the Nuggets as of late. Following two losses to Nikola Jokic & Co. this season, Golden State has now lost five consecutive games against Denver, getting outscored by an average margin of 6.6 points.

A big reason behind the Nuggets’ success was their ability to hold the Warriors to an underwhelming 34.2 3P% in those contests, essentially taking away the latter’s key to victory. If Golden State isn’t sinking its threes, chances are it isn’t winning. Heading into tonight’s matchup, the Warriors are 4-10 SU when they shoot 35.0% or worse from the three-point line.

Furthermore, the Warriors tend to struggle against strong opponents this season, owning a 9-17 SU record against teams with a .500 or better record. On the flip side, the Nuggets are a perfect 16-0 SU against clubs with losing records, leaving time to tell if they can continue that streak.

Even though the Warriors have the advantage of being at home, I’m taking the Nuggets to win. Denver just doesn’t lose to sub-.500 teams, proven by the two aforementioned wins over Golden State this season. If the Nuggets can continue to defend the perimeter well, their 25th victory of the campaign will fall into place.

As far as the best goes, I like Denver outright at -156 odds. The Nuggets are capable of covering a 3.5-point spread, but it’s worth pointing out that two of their last three wins over the Warriors came by three or fewer points. I’m also not a fan of the 235.5-point total in this matchup because even though the Under is 4-2 in the last six games between these teams, they still combined for 234 points on Christmas Day, indicating that it could easily be a shootout tonight.

Erring on the side of caution, stick with a Nuggets outright victory.

Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction: DEN wins

Best Nuggets vs Warriors NBA Bet: DEN ML (-156)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on this pick over on BetOnline

Best Nuggets vs Warriors NBA Player Prop (1/4)

After looking through BetOnline’s Nuggets vs. Warriors player props, I have my eye on Nikola Jokic to finish with over 12.5 rebounds.

On top of averaging 12.3 rebounds in 2023-24, Jokic has finished with the Over on this prop in 18-of-34 (52.9%) outings so far. The Serbian superstar has also finished with 13-plus boards in five of his last seven games against the Warriors (including both meetings this season), averaging 14.0 RPG along the way.

With Golden State also allowing the ninth-most rebounds at home heading into tonight’s matchup, Jokic has zero excuses not to make good on this prop again.

Best Nuggets vs Warriors Prop Bet: Nikola Jokic o12.5 Total Rebounds (-136)

Get 50% up to $750 on this pick over on Bovada

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