NBA Betting: Lakers back on track, but avoid large spreads tonight and beyond even after LeBron returns

After hitting some bumps at the outset of the season, the Los Angeles Lakers appear to be headed in the right direction as a unit and in the win column. The Lakers have won five of their last six games and are 5-3 entering tonight’s home matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

NBA betting odds for tonight’s tilt at Staples have the Lakers as a double-digit favorite. LeBron James is out tonight and possibly for at least a week due to an abdominal strain, which was announced this afternoon. The news has unsurprisingly affected the spread, but it has only moved from 13 to 10.5.

Last season, we would have seen a more precipitous drop. But the offseason addition of Russell Westbrook gives the Lakers more star power and mitigates concerns about how the team will fare without LeBron. In the first few weeks of the season, the Lakers are 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS without LeBron, winning at San Antonio as an underdog and losing at Oklahoma City as a favorite.

The last meeting with the Thunder saw the Lakers blow a 26-point lead and be outscored 67-43 in the second half as the Thunder rallied for a 123-115 win. That game ended with Russell Westbrook getting T’d up and tossed for admonishing Darius Bazley for dunking in the waning moments with the result already settled.

RUSS GETS EJECTED AFTER WORDS WITH BAZLEY. ? pic.twitter.com/IFjwnguT0k

— House of Highlights (@HoHighlights) October 28, 2021

Westbrook and co. have a little score to settle with the Thunder after last Wednesday’s loss. But if you’re looking to back the home team tonight, think long and hard before you do. Why? LeBron’s absence is certainly something to consider, but so is a notable trend. Let’s break it down below.

NBA Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder (1-6) vs Los Angeles Lakers (5-3), AT&T SportsNet Los Angeles, 10:30 p.m. ET

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers NBA Betting Odds

Spread

• Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5 (-110)
• Los Angeles Lakers -10.5 (-110)

Total

• OVER 214.5 (-108)
• UNDER 214.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Oklahoma City Thunder +460
• Los Angeles Lakers -620

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers betting odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 5:40 p.m. ET. To compare NBA betting odds from several top online sportsbooks, check out our NBA odds page.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers NBA Betting Picks

To check out NBA betting picks for tonight’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers game, check out our Thunder vs Lakers matchup page: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Matchup: NBA Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Past and Present Trends Favor Thunder Cover Tonight at Staples

While the Lakers’ recent results are encouraging, their ATS numbers are at the other end of the spectrum.

Thus far this season, they are 2-6 ATS, which includes a 1-5 mark at home. Their only covers have come against the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers. Against the Spurs, they won straight up as a two-point underdog in San Antonio. In their matchup with LeBron’s former team, the Lakers were favored by 8.5 and covered in a 113-101 home win last Friday.

The latter result actually happens to be an infrequent result for the Lakers. Since Anthony Davis joined the team two years ago, the Lakers have a 23-30-2 ATS record–regular season and postseason combined–when favored by eight or more points. Tonight’s game will be the fourth consecutive game in which the Lakers have been favored by at least eight points. They have won all three straight up, but the win against the Cavs, the first game in that stretch, is their only cover.

Is the Over the Best Total Bet Even With LeBron Sidelined?

While betting on the Lakers to cover should require a lot of thought, the total stands out as a more interesting option. In their last 27 games as a double-digit favorite, the over is 16-11-0, which includes a 12-6 mark at home. An over tonight would match the result in last week’s meeting in OKC. That game ended with a total of 238 after having a pregame total of 217.

An over tonight would also fall in line with early trends for the young season. Here’s how things shake out over LeBron’s time in Los Angeles:

• 2018-19: 32-49-1
• 2019-20: 34-37-1
• 2020-21: 28-43-1
• 2021-22: 5-3-0

The natural assumption to make is that not having the services of someone who is averaging 24.8 points per game would make the under the better option. But two of the Lakers’ highest-scoring games so far were the two games that LeBron missed.

2021-22 Game Totals for Los Angeles Lakers

• 1. 246: 125-121 win at San Antonio Spurs)
• 2. 239: 121-118 win vs Memphis Grizzlies
• 3. 238: 123-115 loss at Oklahoma City Thunder
• 4. 236: 119-117 win vs Houston Rockets
• 5. 235: 121-114 loss vs Golden State Warriors
• 6. 220: 115-105 loss vs Phoenix Suns
• 7. 214: 113-101 win vs Cleveland Cavaliers
• 8. 180: 95-85 win vs Houston Rockets

Given the above results, there is a lot of reason to favor the over tonight and in the Lakers’ upcoming games even with LeBron out. The same can’t be said for hefty spreads, unless you are a contrarian.