NBA Betting: Can Paul George Win MVP As the Clippers’ Main Man Without Kawhi? Should You Back the Under in Memphis?

With Kawhi Leonard out for most–and perhaps all–of the NBA season, expectations for the Los Angeles Clippers were understandably tempered coming into the season.

Beyond the fact that the Clippers were going to be without one of the NBA’s top talents for an indefinite period of time, they didn’t live up to sky-high expectations in each of the previous two seasons since signing Kawhi and Paul George two years ago. Even if you take into consideration the effect that COVID had on the 2019-20 season and Kawhi’s untimely injury during last season’s playoffs, finishes of second and fourth in the West are below where they were projected to be in each season.

When this season started, adjusted expectations took even more of a hit. The Clippers lost four of their first five games despite two 40-point games by George.

But now? It’s too soon to say that they will contend for the Western Conference title without Kawhi. Much too soon. But it at least looks like there is life without him. The Clippers’ ceiling may well be limited, but the floor is a lot higher than it appeared to be when they opened 1-4.

The Clippers have won eight of their last nine and now sit with a much sightlier 9-5 record. They are now tied with the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, and Denver Nuggets for the third-best record in the Western Conference entering tonight’s matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies.

With Kawhi out, George is “the guy” all by his lonesome, and he is flourishing in that role so far. Like Steph Curry, his shooting percentages are being affected by volume but are balanced by the results of said volume.

Paul George 2021-22 NBA Season Statistics

• Points Per Game: 27.0 (4th in the NBA)
• Rebounds Per Game: 8.2
• Assists Per Game: 5.1
• Steals Per Game: 2.2

George has had to be the main man at various points over the last couple of seasons with Kawhi missing a number of games. But he hasn’t been in the situation he is now since his time with the Indiana Pacers. Before he joined forces with Kawhi in Los Angeles, he was with Russell Westbrook for two seasons. Reggie Jackson, who is the Clippers’ second-leading scorer, has had some big shots and big performances this season. But he is not on that level, respectfully.

PG has scored 25 or more points eight times, including five games with 30+ points. He also has five double-doubles already this season, two short of the total he had in the entire regular season last season. In Tuesday’s 106-92 win over the San Antonio Spurs, he had 34 points and nine rebounds.

Based on what he and the Clippers are doing at the moment, you would think that his NBA MVP odds would be shorter, right? Perhaps oddsmakers are in wait and see mode, which is fair. But he is well behind Steph, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the consensus top three MVP favorites across top sportsbooks.

NBA MVP Odds for Paul George

• BetOnline Sportsbook: +2500 (tied for 7th with Joel Embiid)
• BetMGM: +2500 (8th)
• DraftKings Sportsbook: +3000 (9th)
• MyBookie: +4000 (11th)

Going beyond the basics, PG-13 is also tied for the NBA lead in defensive win shares, with he and Rudy Gobert both at 1.1. He also ranks highly in a few other “advanced” statistics, including VORP, which is neither a faraway planet nor a cartoon character. If he continues to excel and the Clippers continue to win without Kawhi, he will be in the mix. Or he should be.

George is on track to put up a season similar to his 2018-19 campaign with the Thunder. That season, he established his current career highs in scoring (28.0 points per game), rebounds (8.2 rebounds per game), and steals per game (2.2). He finished third behind Giannis and James Harden in MVP voting and third behind Gobert and Giannis for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. The Thunder, who stumbled out of the gate as the Clippers did this season, opened 0-4 but went 49-33 to finish sixth in the West.

Can PG Finish Top Three in NBA MVP Voting?

The MVP competition this season looks likely to be rather stiff. There’s the aforementioned favored trio (who are all former MVPs) of Steph, KD, and Giannis, the latter of whom torched the Lakers for a season-high 47 points last night. Then there’s reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, who is extraordinary once again. And then you have the likes of Luka Doncic and Jimmy Butler, who have performed at a high level in positive starts for the Mavs and Heat.

Unfortunately for George’s chances, some of his competition is in a similar boat. The Nets will be without Kyrie Irving unless he relents on his COVID vaccine stance (not happening) or New York’s vaccine mandate changes (not imminent). The Nuggets are without Jamal Murray (torn ACL) indefinitely. And Steph is still without his other Splash Brother, Klay Thompson. Klay is reportedly on track to return in late December, but by that point, the Warriors will already be 30 or more games into the season.

But if PG finished in the top three a few seasons ago with Russell Westbrook, a comparable or better individual campaign and a top-six finish for the Clippers–with Kawhi potentially sidelined most or all of the season–should make him worth significant consideration.

As for tonight, PG matches up with another possible MVP candidate in Ja Morant as the Clippers visit Memphis.

Los Angeles Clippers (9-5) vs Memphis Grizzlies (7-7), Bally Sports Southeast, 8:00 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies NBA Betting Odds

• Spread: Los Angeles Clippers +1 (-110), Memphis Grizzlies -1 (-110)
• Total: OVER 221 (-108), UNDER 221 (-112)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles Clippers -102, Memphis Grizzlies -116

Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies betting odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET. To compare NBA betting odds from several top online sportsbooks, check out our NBA odds.

Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies NBA Betting Picks

Check out our Clippers-Grizzlies NBA betting picks, betting stats, and other Clippers-Grizzlies matchup info here: Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies Matchup: NBA Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Betting News aggregates our NBA betting picks from trusted sports betting industry sources. Along with NBA picks for every NBA matchup, we also offer MLB picks, NFL picks, and NHL picks.

NBA Betting Notes for Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies

No best bets from us tonight, but here’s a brief word if you are thinking about backing a total tonight. Statistically, the Grizzlies are one of the worst teams in the league on the defensive end. They rank last in scoring defense, 29th in defending the three, and 28th in opponent field goal percentage. And they are a respectable seventh in the league in scoring at 109.9 points per game.

But the under is 8-6-0 in their games and 8-3-0 after three straight overs to start their season. That is in line with the success that unders have had across the league.

NBA unders went 9-2 yesterday. ✅

UNDERs now 136-87 (61%) this season per @Bet_Labs.

— John Ewing ? (@johnewing) November 18, 2021

If the total remains in the 220s, it will be the ninth Grizzlies game this season with a 220+ total. In those games, the under is 5-1 in the last six and 5-3 overall.

But even if it goes under, look for a big night for PG from three. He’s currently shooting below his career clip, but opponents are shooting 39.4 from deep against the Grizzlies. When the two teams met in Los Angeles on October 23, George had five threes and 41 points in a 120-114 loss, though the Clippers shot only 33.3 percent (13 for 39) from three as a team.