Thunder vs Mavericks NBA Game 4 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (5/13): Will OKC Show Signs of Life?

Thunder vs Mavericks NBA Betting Trends

• Oklahoma City is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 games vs. the Western Conference.
• Dallas is 5-0 straight up in its last five games on Monday.
• Oklahoma City is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.
• Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games vs. Oklahoma City.
• The total hit the Over in eight of Oklahoma City’s last 11 games vs. Dallas.
• The total hit the Under in eight of Dallas’ last 12 games.

Thunder vs Mavericks Game 4 Predictions & NBA Picks Today (5/13)

Despite being the West’s No. 1 seed this postseason, the Thunder find themselves at risk of falling into a 3-1 hole if they lose to the Mavericks tonight.

Poor shooting is one reason why Oklahoma City has suffered back-to-back losses. The Thunder have only shot 47.1% from the floor and 33.3% from deep over the last two games, averaging just 105.5 points.

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed like his usual self during that stretch, some of his teammates have left much to be desired. Josh Giddey is only averaging 8.5 points while shooting 16.7% from downtown while Chet Holmgren put up 12.0 PPG on .429/.125/.625 splits. That’s without even mentioning how Lu Dortz owns a 35.3 FG% and 36.4 3P% in his latest two appearances.

The Mavericks’ shooting was far from stellar in Game 3, but they were fortunate to have more than one player step up. In addition to Washington’s solid offensive effort, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving each scored 22 points apiece. Considering how that wasn’t even the duo’s best showing, you have to assume that Dallas is feeling pretty good.

The Thunder need Chet Holmgren to play better if they’re going to even this series. 

The paint is another area where the Thunder struggled in Game 4. Not only did the Mavericks outrebound the Thunder 48-41, but they also outscored them in the paint 52-38.

Time will tell if the Mavericks can pick up another win at American Airlines Center, where they’re 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. On the flip side, the Thunder are just 2-6 ATS in their eight previous road games while owning a 7-8-1 ATS record as the away underdog this year. For reference, Dallas is 18-14 ATS as the home favorite.

Nevertheless, it’s also important to note that the Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 clashes with the Mavs. In fact, Mark Daigneault’s team has outscored Dallas by an average of 13 points in the last five meetings.

At the end of the day, Oklahoma City must take advantage of the opposition’s injury situation. Not only are Maxi Kleber (shoulder) and Olivier-Maxence Prosper (ankle) ruled out again, but Doncic (knee/ankle) will be a game-time decision. The Mavericks are 9-16 SU in the last 25 games that Doncic has missed.

As for the Thunder, they don’t boast a single injury designation.

How will the Mavericks perform if Luka Doncic (knee/ankle) can’t suit up for Game 4? 

Even though the Thunder are capable of evening this series on paper, I’m locking in the Mavericks to win. Dallas has much more playoff experience than the competition, which could play a factor tonight — especially with the thunderous crowd making an impact. I fully expect the Thunder to keep things close but the Mavericks will do the little things right to steal the victory.

But no matter who wins, I’m taking the Under on the 215-point total. The Under has been prevalent for both sides, going 4-1 in OKC’s last five games and 8-4 in Dallas’ 12 previous outings. Furthermore, the first three games of this series have averaged 215.7 PPG, finishing with fewer than 215 twice.

With the Under being 19-13 when the Mavericks are the home favorite this season, expecting fewer points is the correct play.

Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Game 4 Prediction: DAL wins

Best Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Bet: u215 Total Points (-110)

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Best Thunder vs Mavericks NBA Game 4 Prop Bet (5/13)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tends to love facing the Mavericks, which is why I’m taking him to record over 30.5 points (-117) for tonight’s prop pick.

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In his last 13 games against the Thunder, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.1 points on .525/.300/.902 shooting splits. He finished with at least 31 points in eight of those matchups, which includes finishing with the Over in this series’ last two games. The Over is also 4-2 in his last six trips to American Airlines Center.

As the only Thunder player whom the Mavericks can’t seem to contain, look for Gilgeous-Alexander to continue doing what he does best: scoring the ball.

Best Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4 Prop Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o30.5 Total Points (-117)

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