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Top Player Props In Today’s NHL and NBA Games (3/13)
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 7 minutes
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We’ve got a great slate of NHL and NBA games for betting tonight. Instead of a game-by-game breakdown, here are a few player props from both leagues that are projected to be big winners tonight. All plays are trend backed and feature players in strong matchups. Using analytics and projections to find value is a profitable long-term strategy and good way to find and take advantage of misplaced lines. Let’s dive into tonight’s slate!
Mikko Rantanen Over 0.5 Assist Prop (-130)
This is a simple case of going with the trend and not overthinking it. Rantanen has recorded an assist in 10 straight games and has 9 assists in his last 5 games. The duo of he and Nathan Mackinnon has been the NHL’s hottest in the past couple weeks with Mackinnon averaging nearly 3 points per game in March. The Colorado power play is red hot, scoring on 35% of their opportunities in the last 7 games. Vancouver is without Vezina candidate, Thatcher Demko, who will miss the next few weeks with a knee injury. Casey Desmith has been inconsistent this season and the defensively, the Canucks have surrender 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 games. If Colorado is going to score 3+ in tonight’s game, which is likely considering they’ve done so in 7 of 10, Rantanen is going to factor in. He is projected for 0.88 assists tonight, making this a value play on top of a trend play. When a player’s hot, you trust him. Given the correlation play, Makar point and Mackinnon goal are good spots as well.
Check out the game preview of tonight’s Canucks vs Avalanche matchup here.
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Drew Doughty Over 0.5 Assist Prop (+125)
The Kings are battling Vegas for third place in the Pacific Division and Drew Doughty has been a big part of righting the Kings’ season of late. He’s recorded 4 assists in his last 5 games and one in each of his last 3. There is an option to take Doughty for a point, but plus-money for an assist has tremendous value. The model gives him a 58% chance to tally an assist tonight, compared to the implied sports book odds of 44%. Doughty figures prominently in the Kings offence and given that the Blues have given up 4+ goals in 5 of their last 10 games, he is more likely than not to figure in on one of the those goals. Doughty has recorded an assists in each of the two previous meetings this season and one point in each of his last 5 games against the Blues.
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Trevor Moore Over 2.5 Shots Prop (-190)
Another LA King makes an appearance on the list, with Trevor Moore hitting his line consistently. He’s had 3+ shots in 4 of his last 5 and 61% of his games this season. St. Louis is struggling to suppress shots and lacks depth, giving more an advantageous matchup in tonight’s game. Moore is averaging nearly 7 shot attempts per game in March and St. Louis has given up the 2nd most shots against in their last 10 games. He’s projected for 3.56 shots against St. Louis tonight. Playing on a line with Kevin Fiala, the duo will be able to use their speed and puck retrieval skills on the forecheck to extend shifts and generate off the cycle. Moore, in particular, is good at generating shots of deflections and rebounds at the net front, making him the ideal candidate to take advantage of a Blues lineup that struggles to defend.
Neal Pionk Over 1.5 Shots Prop (-145)
Pionk has found his offensive game for the Winnipeg Jets with 10 points in his last 10 games. Further to that, Pionk has gone over this line in all of his last 10 games and 18 of his last 25. Pionk has the second most shot attempts from Winnipeg defencemen this season behind Josh Morrissey, and fourth most on the team. He’s hit his line in both of the games against Nashville this season. Pionk benefits from easier match ups and should be able to take advantage of Nashville’s lack of depth and Winnipeg’s desire of creating offence from the point. He’s projected for 2.68 shots against Nashville who is middle of the pack in defending shots from defencemen. Following the trend and the projection, it makes sense to take Pionk in this spot; but he is not a ladder candidate.
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Other Props To Consider:
Alexander Georgiev Over 26.5 Saves
Quinn Hughes Over 2.5 Shots
Pierre-Luc Dubois Over 2.5 Shots
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points
Cade Cunningham Over 7.5 Assists Prop (-145)
Cade has been areal bright spot in a dismal season for the Detroit Pistons, and tonight is a clash of two struggling Eastern Conference teams. Cunningham has hit his line in 4 straight games and is a candidate for a a ladder to 10+, as he’s had a double-double in 2 of his last 3 games. According to Betalytics, he’s projected for 9.74 assists, making him a prime candidate for a double double against a Raptors team that gives up the second most assists to point guards in the NBA. My model has Cunningham projected for 10.02 assists, which aligns well with Betalytics and his trend of hitting this line in 7 of his last 10 games. Have confidence in the line and sprinkle on the ladder.
Luka Doncic Over 44.5 Points & Assists Prop (-120)
Happy Luka Doncic Triple Double Day to all who celebrate. At BettingNews, we’ve been hammering the Doncic triple-doubles lately and it has paid off. However, there is little value on his line given that he’s hit in 7(!) straight games. Against Golden State, Luka has been lethal as a shooter and passer, which is the focus of tonight’s matchup. Doncic has sailed over this number in 8 of last 10 games and would have hit it against Chicago had it not been a blow out. In his last 4 games against Golden State, he’s recorded 50, 53, 47, 49. Two of those outings included 40+ point games and a third had 39 points. He’s dominated the Warriors and has shot nearly 50% from the field in his last 5 matchups against them. Doncic is projected for 41 points and 12 assists tonight, far more than the 45 required. The only danger is the blowout without Stephen Curry. To hedge this, the Mavs have proven they are willing to leave him in to get his triple-double, which is a good hedge here in the event Dallas is winning in a blowout and the triple-double streak becomes the focus.
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De’Aaron Fox Over 28.5 Points Prop (-110)
Fox has been an offensive catalyst for the Kings and has great chemistry with Damontas Sabonis, another triple double candidate. Fox has hit this line in 6 of his last 10 and has 27 and 28 in two other games. Betalytics has projected him for 32.27 points this evening and my model has him projected for 33.02 points. The Lakers give up the 7th most points to point guards, with an average of 25.46 this season. In what is expected to be a close game with a 2.5 point spread, Fox will be leaned upon heavily. In three games against the Lakers this season, Fox has averaged 37 minutes, 36 points and a field goal percentage of 55%. He’s going to get his shots and there is little reason to believe he won’t continue to have success against the Lakers tonight. 30+ and small sprinkle of 35+ are good options, as well as 25+ parlayed with a Sabonis triple-double.
Check out tonight’s preview of the Kings and Lakers game here.
Other Props To Consider:
Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points
Jamal Murray Over 6.5 Assists
Chris Paul Over 1.5 3 Pointer
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Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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