Bucks vs Warriors Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | NBA Picks Today (3/6): Don’t Underestimate Draymond

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The Milwaukee Bucks (41-21) put their six-game winning streak on the line when they visit the Golden State Warriors (32-28) at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 6. It’s also one of two national broadcasts on ESPN.

Good morning.#FearTheDeer pic.twitter.com/bjrmiOoHhd

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 6, 2024

Despite trailing by as many as 15 points, the Bucks didn’t let it get them down as they fought back to a 113-106 victory over the LA Clippers two nights ago. Meanwhile, the Warriors return home after ending their four-game road trip with a 140-88 loss to the Boston Celtics on Sunday.

Could we see one of these teams hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy this spring? Maybe. Milwaukee currently owns the fourth-best 2023-24 NBA Finals odds (+800) while Golden State finds itself sitting eighth at +2500 on Bovada Sportsbook.

Without wasting more time, let’s dive into my Bucks vs. Warriors predictions and best NBA bets for tonight.

Bucks vs Warriors NBA Betting Tonight (3/6)

Bucks vs Warriors Matchup Information

• Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks (41-21, 16-14 Away) vs. Golden State Warriors (32-28, 16-15 Home)
• Venue & Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, CA)
• Date: Wednesday, March 6, 2024
• Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Bucks vs. Warriors: ESPN

Warriors vs Bucks Odds & Spread

Warriors vs. Bucks odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Wednesday, March 6 at 10:44 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Bucks vs Warriors Spread

• Milwaukee Bucks +4 (-105)
• Golden State Warriors -4 (-115)

Warriors vs Bucks Over/Under

• Over 226.5 Points (-110)
• Under 226.5 Points (-110)

Bucks vs Warriors Moneyline

• Milwaukee Bucks (+140)
• Golden State Warriors (-165)

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Best Bets and Picks Tonight

Looking to get in on even more NBA picks today? Check out our NBA Picks page for consensus picks for every 2023-24 season game.

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Bucks vs Warriors NBA Betting Trends

• Milwaukee is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 games vs. the Pacific Division.
• Golden State is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games as the favorite.
• Milwaukee is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games vs. Golden State.
• Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.
• The total hit the Under in 10 of Milwaukee’s last 11 road games.
• The total hit the Under in five of Golden State’s last six home games.

Bucks vs Warriors Prediction & NBA Picks Today (3/6): Will Milwaukee’s Streak Continue?

Tonight is the second and final Bucks vs. Warriors clash of the 2023-24 NBA season. The two teams collided back on Jan. 13, resulting in a 129-118 victory for Milwaukee as Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated with a 33-point performance on 59.1% shooting.

Having said that, the Warriors were shorthanded in that loss as both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green were absent. That won’t be the case tonight, though, as Golden State has a fully healthy rotation for the first time since November.

The same can’t be said for the Bucks, who are fairly banged up as they begin their California road trip. Antetokounmpo, who missed Monday’s game with an Achilles issue, is questionable while Khris Middleton (ankle) has already been ruled out. Jae Crowder (knee) and MarJon Beauchamp (foot) are hurting, too, but they’re probable to suit up.

It’s worth noting that the Bucks are only 10-9 SU in the last 19 games that the ‘Greek Freak’ has missed.

The Bucks could be in trouble if Giannis Antetokounmpo (Achilles) can’t face the Warriors tonight. 

Yes, the Bucks are on a six-game winning streak, but continuing that momentum won’t be easy. The Warriors are not only 11-3 SU across their last 14 games, but they’ve also emerged victorious in six of their last seven outings as the favorite.

Milwaukee is an abysmal 2-6 SU as the underdog this season, only covering the spread in three of those matchups. On the flip side, Golden State is 26-12 SU and 19-19 ATS as the favorite in 2023-24.

Another thing that the Warriors have going for them is that they’re 4-1 ATS in the Bucks’ last five trips to the Bay Area. In fact, Golden State has three consecutive home wins over Milwaukee, outscoring the Bucks by an average of 7.7 points.

For those who are curious, the Bucks haven’t beaten the Warriors on the road since Jan. 8, 2020 — before COVID-19 even shut down the NBA.

The Warriors have proven that they know how to handle the Bucks at Chase Center.

Although I think the Bucks are the better team when healthy, that clearly isn’t the case tonight. With that in mind, I’m taking the Warriors to win, covering the 4-point spread in the process.

The Bucks nearly lost to the Clippers had it not been for Damian Lillard’s efforts and they can’t rely on him to do the same if they’re shorthanded tonight. The Warriors are at full strength and are pushing for a playoff spot, so I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas pedal.

The Warriors are also 11-3 ATS across their 14 previous outings and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the Bucks. Unless Golden State forgets how to shoot the ball, the home team should cover tonight.

Bucks vs Warriors NBA Prediction: GSW wins

Best Bucks vs Warriors NBA Bet: GSW -4 (-115)

Get 50% up to $750 on your Bucks vs. Warriors NBA picks today over at Bovada

Best Bucks vs Warriors NBA Prop Pick (3/6)

While there are plenty of solid Bucks vs. Warriors player props available tonight, I’d be crazy not to take Draymond Green to finish with over 12.5 rebounds and assists.

Though Green isn’t the flashiest player, he’s averaging the Over this season, putting up 7.0 rebounds and 5.8 assists (12.8 R/A) per outing. Those numbers have actually jumped up to 8.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists across his last 19 games — a stretch where he’s recorded the Over on this prop 13 times.

If you need more convincing, Green also made good on this wager in nine of his last 11 meetings with the Bucks, averaging 8.0 rebounds and 7.1 assists (15.1 R/A) along the way.

Don’t overthink things: expect more of the same from Green tonight.