Auburn vs USC Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Tigers avoid the upset in Los Angeles?

With non-conference play winding down, USC is lacking a signature win to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. But the Trojans have one final chance to grab such a win, as #19 Auburn visits the Galen Center today.

The matchup between the Tigers (9-1) and Trojans (8-3, 2-0 Pac-12) is set to tip off at 5:30 pm ET (2:30 pm local time) and will be televised on ESPN.

The Trojans had a couple of opportunities to beat quality power conference opposition at the Battle 4 Atlantis last month, but they lost in overtime to Tennessee and lost by five to Wisconsin.

They have opened Pac-12 play with wins over Cal and Oregon State, but they don’t have a win yet that can beef up their resume and counter a season-opening loss to Florida Gulf Coast.

The Tigers also don’t have any notable wins, and their lone loss, an 82-73 loss to Memphis last weekend, came against the best opponent they have faced thus far.

But they aren’t in the same position as the Trojans are at the moment, coming in as a #5 seed in ESPN’s latest Bracketology update.

But they will want to come away from the first of their road trip–they visit Washington on Wednesday–with two wins before starting SEC play after Christmas, as a tough conference slate lies ahead.

Will the Trojans pull off the upset at home, or will the Tigers come away from the Galen Center unscathed? Read on for our Auburn vs USC prediction, as well as our betting picks and analysis for this SEC vs Pac-12 matchup.

Auburn vs USC Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, December 18, 2022, at 8:40 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Auburn -1.5 (-104)
• USC +1.5 (-118)

Over/Under

• Over 140.5 (-110)
• Under 140.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Auburn -111
• USC -108

Is Auburn Ripe for the Picking?

Prior to their loss to Memphis in Atlanta, the Tigers had ascended to #11 in the AP Poll, and they might have been set for a move into the top ten had they left State Farm Arena with their perfect record intact.

However, their 82-73 loss, in which they trailed by as many as 15, was an unsurprising result after they had lived dangerously against lesser opposition multiple times up to that point.

In the second game of the season, they trailed South Florida by nine early in the second half but rallied for a 67-59 win.

Against Northwestern in the Cancun Challenge, they shot only 26 percent from the field but escaped with a 43-42 win thanks to great defense of their own and Allen Flanigan’s go-ahead layup with 31 seconds left.

Against Saint Louis at home, they trailed by five with under five minutes left, but they outscored the Billikens 12-2 the rest of the way to pull out the win.

Even in the game following the loss to Memphis, they trailed Georgia State at halftime and for almost the first seven minutes of the second half before scoring more points in the final 14:17 (37) than they did in the first 25:43 (35).

So, there’s legitimate reason to be concerned about how they will fare in their first true road games of the season today and then at Washington in three days.

The Memphis loss is the only time thus far this season that they have allowed 70+ points, and they come in at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

But after finishing 26th, 6th, 33rd, 38th, and 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency in the previous five seasons, they are 51st thus far this season.

The same concerns about how Auburn will perform offensively against sound defensive squads are present for USC as well, and it is the same issue that led to last season’s early NCAA Tournament exit against Miami, who then beat Auburn in the second round.

Auburn vs USC Prediction and Picks

Tigers vs Trojans Prediction: USC to win

Tigers vs Trojans Picks: USC ML

For the best value on this bet, both BetUS and BetMGM has USC ML at plus odds at the time of writing.

I’ll admit I’m a bit surprised at the total for this one being where it is, as that is several points higher than I would have expected.

Were it in the lower 130s, then I would have pondered backing the over, but there’s no way I’m doing it at this number.

USC did score 88 points–their second-highest total of the season–against Long Beach State last time out, but they have scored 70+ points in consecutive games only once this season, in back-to-back wins over Mount St. Mary’s and BYU.

USC missed a couple of great opportunities in the Bahamas against Tennessee and Wisconsin, but Auburn’s ripe for the picking right now if they can put the clamps on defensively.

This one is likely to go back and forth and might not be decided until the final few minutes, but I’m rolling with the upset. Perhaps it will be even more of a reality check for Auburn than the loss to Memphis seems to have been.

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