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College Basketball Best Bets: Fade the Upsets | January 23, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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After sweeping the college basketball card on Saturday by simply fading teams that stormed after an upset, we look to Tuesday night to keep that same mentality rolling.
Let’s have a Tuesday!
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day!
Let’s check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.
- 9-7 (56%)
(As of January 20, 2024)
West Virginia vs Central Florida
Matchup Information – College Basketball
- Venue & Location: Addition Financial Arena (Orlando, FL)
- Date: January 23, 2024
- Tip Off: 7:00 pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada: One of the leaders in the sports betting market!
Spread
- West Virginia: (+8.0) (-110)
- UCF: (-8.0) (-110)
Total
- Over: 141.5 (-110)
- Under: 141.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- West Virginia: +290
- UCF: -385
The Pick: UCF (+8.0) (-110) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank
We are once again fading a storm. West Virginia on Saturday upset #7 Kansas at home, and you know the rest. The Country Roads-loving Mountaineer fans stormed the court in celebration. Now, on the road in Orlando, the Knights look to give them a taste of reality.
In the Knights’ 11 games at home this season, They have one of the most complete defenses in the country. They are nearly perfect in every category, minus their slight foul trouble issues. Outside of that, UCF would be one of your father’s favorite basketball teams. They play lockdown defense, rebound well on both ends and force turnovers.
While their defense is mouth-watering, their offense might be the complete opposite. However, West Virginia’s defense has been horrid on the road this season. Small sample size, but the Mountaineers are 337th in effective field goal defense, according to Bart Torvik. On top of that, they are the tenth worst in three-point defense.
Coming off their biggest win of the season, expect some regression from the Mountaineers, especially on the road. They have not had much success offensively this season, so expect the Knights’ stellar defense to give the Mountaineers some trouble come Tuesday night.
Concerns: The spread being too high. Eight is a lot, but the Knights should take care of business on both ends of the floor.
Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech
Matchup Information – College Basketball
- Venue & Location: Hank McCamish Pavillion (Atlanta, GA)
- Date: January 23, 2024
- Tip Off: 7:00 pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada: One of the leaders in the sports betting market!
Spread
- Pittsburgh: (-3.5) (-105)
- Georgia Tech: (+3.5) (-115)
Total
- Over: 144.5 (-110)
- Under: 144.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Pittsburgh: -148
- Georgia Tech: +120
The Pick: Georgia Tech (+3.5) (-110) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank
No storm fading here, but if Pitt was home, there would have been one. The Panthers upset #12 Duke as 12.5-point underdogs in Cameron Indoor Stadium. They look to carry that momentum into Atlanta, where the Yellow Jackets are waiting to rain on their parade.
Georgia Tech does not have the sexy numbers Pitt has, but they have been tested. The Yellow Jackets have the 14th toughest schedule coming into this game. They have played very well against teams in the top 100. Being in the top 85 in effective field goal defense and 2-point offense. They are also top 55 in offensive rebounding at home this season. They will need those second-chance opportunities against the Panthers.
Pitt is an all-around complete team, there is no denying that, but in road games this season. They have yet to find answers for their opponents on the inside, as they are 316th in 2-point defense. On top of that, they get into foul trouble a lot, 312th in defensive free throw rate on the road.
If Georgia Tech can get some stops and win the rebound battle they should be able to cover in this one.
Concerns: Pitt’s momentum continues and rolls through Georgia Tech, while the Jackets have no answers for the Panthers.
Where to find more advanced analytics
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball the ones I have mentioned above are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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