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Fade the Storm Saturday | January 20, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaab
Good morning and happy Saturday! Today is a day filled with system plays. Most importantly, Fading the Storm plays. Let’s get into the two I will be fading.
If you are unaware of what “Fading the Storm” is, I am so glad you are here today. I live by a system that if a school storms the field or court, it is not the championship of their respected sport. I have to fade them in their following game. It is the ultimate letdown spot. If you are curious about the success rate of this theory, I found a tweet that I will link below from someone who has tracked it all the way back to 2017.
CIN -1 beats No.19 TCU 81-77, if you tune into @Josh_Insights pods you’d know Unranked Home Favs vs Ranked Opponents are approx 159-88 SU (64%) since 2017.
CIN -1 also got 52% $ / 40% bets ?
This is CIN’s 2nd W this season vs a Top25 team, 1/6 at No.12 BYU (71-60) pic.twitter.com/i0FFNb62T8
— Spence (@SyndicateSpence) January 17, 2024
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day!
Let’s check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.
- 7-7 (50%)
(As of January 20, 2024)
#15 Oklahoma vs Cincinnati
Matchup Information – College Basketball
- Venue & Location: Fifth Third Arena (Cincinnati, OH)
- Date: January 20th, 2024
- Tip Off: 1:00 Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada: One of the leaders in the sports betting market!
Spread
- Oklahoma: (+4.0) (-115)
- Cincinnati: (-4.0) (-105)
Total
- Over: 141.5 (-110)
- Under: 141.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Oklahoma: +140
- Cincinnati: -165
The Pick: Oklahoma (+4.0) (-115) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
I know what you are about to say, “Colby, how can you be taking the Sooners when Cincinnati is an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent?” Simple, storming the court following a win over a ranked opponent opens up a major letdown spot the following game. Plus, they were clearly more locked into their game against the Horned Frogs. I expect this to be a significant letdown spot for the Bearcats. That is why fading the storm cancels out that other system play.
⛈️Fade the Storm⛈️
Cincinnati -3✅✅
We ride with Oklahoma on Saturday!!!! pic.twitter.com/8ywOKeCtuA
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) January 17, 2024
The Stank
The Oklahoma Sooners have been on my fade list for a while due to their lack of road experience and success. However, today is a new day and the perfect day to be a Boomer Sooner fan.
In their last two true road games this season, they have faced some of the Big 12’s best. Losing to TCU and Kansas by 9+ points in each matchup. Sure, if Cincinnati could beat TCU, they could also beat Oklahoma. I understand that logic, but I gave up that thinking a long time ago.
The tough stretch the Sooners went through should prepare them to have a solid outing against the Bearcats. Plus, the Sooners are okay on the road. They are still in the top 100 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. Their defense will be the main reason they stay in this game. Against those two top 25 teams in Torvik’s rankings, the Sooner still were able to defend the deep ball and get rebounds. Two key things to take on Cincinnati, who are solid from behind the arc and excel at rebounding.
The most enticing thing about Oklahoma in this game is they are 33rd in consistency, according to Haslametrics, while Cincinnati is in the 300s.
Concerns: Cincinnati has one of the best home court advantages in the country. They have insane fans, and the atmosphere will be a madhouse. If the Sooners can tune out the noise and focus on the job, they are golden.
Penn State vs Ohio State
Matchup Information – College Basketball
- Venue & Location: Value City Arena (Columbus, OH)
- Date: January 20th, 2024
- Tip Off: 12:00 Eastern
- Broadcast: BTN
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada: One of the leaders in the sports betting market!
Spread
- Penn State: (+9.0) (-105)
- Ohio State: (-9.0) (-115)
Total
- Over: 149.0 (-110)
- Under: 149.0 (-110)
Moneyline
- Penn State: +435
- Ohio State: -470
The Pick: Ohio State (-9.0) (-115) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank
Outside the apparent letdown spot, the Penn State Nittany Lions are not good. They had a solid night shooting, forced a great team to have some turnovers, and snuck one past #11 Wisconsin.
⛈️Fade The Storm⛈️
Ohio State on Saturday https://t.co/ABhwfYzTA9 pic.twitter.com/IwZ4nFcRyc
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) January 17, 2024
Regardless, I am unimpressed by this Penn State team, especially on the road. Talk about a team that does not play any defense. In road/neutral games, the Nittany Lions are ranked in the 300s in effective field goal defense, defensive rebounding, and 2-point defense. Offensively, they are solid, but they struggle shooting from deep, 299th in 3-point percentage in road/neutral matchups.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is a well-rounded squad in the top 50 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes do everything right; they get offensive rebounds, do not foul, and knock down their free throws. That is all you can ask for in a solid college basketball team.
Penn State likes to run, as they are 35th in pace, according to Haslametrics. If the Buckeyes can limit the Lions’ possessions and keep them from getting the number of shots they are used to, They should come out on top in this one.
Where to find more advanced analytics
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball the ones I have mentioned above are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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