Florida vs Auburn Prediction & Best Bets (SEC Tournament Championship): Can the Gators Keep Scoring to Win in Nashville?

Conference tournament season has not been very kind to many high seeds in the major conferences. That includes the SEC, where #6 Florida and #4 Auburn are the last two teams standing for today’s championship game in Nashville.

After surviving against #11 Georgia on Thursday, Gators (24-10, 11-7 SEC) put up 102 points in taking out #3 Alabama on Friday and 95 more as they eliminated #7 Texas A&M yesterday. With the win over the Aggies, UF is in the tournament title game for the first time since 2014.

Auburn (26-7, 13-5 SEC) was the only top-four seed to win on Friday as they torched #5 South Carolina by 31 points, then held off #9 Mississippi State 73-66 to reach the title game for the first time since 2019.

Will the Tigers win their third SEC Tournament title, or will the Gators cap off their run with a fifth tournament crown? Read on.

Florida vs Auburn Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Florida +5 (-103)
• Auburn -5 (-117)

Over/Under

• Over 157.5 (-115)
• Under 157.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Florida +195
• Auburn -225

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of the top games each day.

Florida vs Auburn Betting Analysis and Prediction

In yesterday’s win over Mississippi State, Auburn failed to cover the spread as the Bulldogs managed to stay within reach even when the Tigers took control of the contest.

That outcome actually bodes rather well for today, based on how the season has gone.

To this point, the Tigers have suffered consecutive ATS losses only once this season. That was in their first two games of the season, when they lost to Baylor as a two-point favorite and didn’t cover as a 24-point favorite in an 86-71 win over Southeastern Louisiana.

The only other time that the Tigers have not covered in consecutive games is when they pushed as a four-point underdog in a 79-75 loss at Alabama and lost outright as a three-point favorite in a loss at Mississippi State three days later.

Auburn has been money as a favorite in SEC play, going 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS, and overall, going 20-10-1 (26-5 SU) as a favorite for the season.

Today’s opponent accounts for one of those rare SU losses. On February 10, the Florida defeated Auburn 81-65 in Gainesville, claiming the outright win as a two-point underdog.

How likely is a repeat result? If the Tigers do what they have done most of the season, it’s not very likely.

Florida has scored 85, 102, and 95 points in the SEC Tournament and hit the 75-point mark in a dozen straight games since a 67-66 loss at Texas A&M on February 3. Overall, they have scored 75+ points in 19 of 21 SEC games this season, including 14 games with 80+ points.

Auburn, on the other hand, has allowed 80+ points only four times and 75+ 11 times this season. Florida is just 1-4 SU and ATS this season when scoring fewer than 75 points, so if the Tigers bring it on defense as they did against South Carolina and Mississippi State, they will likely be well on their way to a win.

The Gators have put up a lot of points while giving up a lot of points in Nashville, but the same approach is unlikely to bear fruit against the Tigers, who are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS when scoring 80+ points in SEC games and 21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS overall when doing so this season.

If Florida can hold Auburn under 80, they will have a much better chance. When they have not hit the 80-point mark this season, the Tigers are just 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS.

They were able to do it once already this season, but will they be able to do so again? I don’t think so.

Florida vs Auburn Prediction: Auburn to win and cover

Florida vs Auburn Best Bets

Auburn -5 (-117 at BetOnline) & Auburn team total over 81.5 (-120 at Bovada)

Other NCAA Basketball Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NCAA Basketball?

Throughout the college basketball season, you can find NCAA basketball odds at the top online sports betting sites. That includes prominent names like BetDSI, BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada.

Along with game odds, many sportsbooks offer men’s and women’s March Madness futures odds, Final Four odds, Wooden Award odds, and more.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Our reviews analyze available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos offered.

• BetDSI Sportsbook Review
• BetOnline Sportsbook Review
• BetUS Sportsbook Review
• Bovada Sportsbook Review
• MyBookie Sportsbook Review

Interested in Learning More About Betting on NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on the action from the Mountain West to the MAAC and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, check out our March Madness guide, and learn valuable March Madness betting tips, where you can find the best March Madness bracket challenges, who the Final Four favorites are, and much more.

• March Madness Guide

Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more daily NCAA basketball betting insight from myself and the rest of our team.

• Betting News on “X”/Twitter
• Betting News on Twitch
• Betting News on TikTok

Where will the Gators and Tigers be in the tournament field for the $200,000 Bracket Madness contest at BetOnline? Selection Sunday and the start of the contest aren’t until Sunday, March 17, but the contest is now open for entry fees. In the meantime, you can take advantage of their 100% cryptocurrency welcome bonus and build your bankroll for March Madness.