Houston vs Virginia Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the first team to 40 win in Charlottesville?

Of today’s five college basketball matchups which feature two ranked teams, the one that tops the charts rankings wise is in Charlottesville, Virginia, where #5 Houston visits #2 Virginia.

The matchup between the Cougars (10-1) and Cavaliers (8-0, 1-0 ACC) is scheduled to tip off at 2:00 pm ET, and it will air on ESPN2 following the Indiana vs Kansas matchup.

Houston lost a 15-point lead, the game, and the #1 ranking last Saturday against Alabama, but the Cougars go into today’s tilt after bouncing back from the loss with a 28-point win over North Carolina A&T on Tuesday.

Virginia is playing its first game since edging James Madison by five on December 6, so it will be interesting to see if there is any rust to shake off for the Cavaliers, who own wins over Baylor, Illinois, and Michigan thus far this season.

With how slow both of these teams play and how strong they are defensively, is the under a shoo-in in Charlottesville? Keep reading for our Houston vs Virginia prediction, as well as our betting picks and analysis for the Cougars vs Cavaliers matchup.

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Houston Cougars vs Virginia Cavaliers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, December 17, 2022, at 11:15 am ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Houston -2.5 (-105)
• Virginia +2.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 115.5 (-110)
• Under 115.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Houston -134
• Virginia +112

Are Houston and Virginia Certainly to Play Out an Ugly, Low-Scoring Game?

If you are planning to use this time slot to watch the rest of Alabama vs Gonzaga then spend time with your family, do some Christmas shopping, or twiddle your thumbs, I can’t begrudge you.

When these teams met at Houston last season, the Cougars dominated in a 67-47 win. That would be Virginia’s second-lowest offensive output of the season, beaten only by their 43 points in an ACC Tournament loss to North Carolina.

Had Houston not had an uncharacteristically good day from the perimeter–they made 11 of 20 (55.0%) from three, the only time in 38 games last season that they shot 50% or better from three–it would have been even more of a low-scoring game.

How will today’s matchup pan out? Both teams rank well defensively, with the Cougars #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom and the Cavaliers coming in at #15.

However, they also both rank among the most efficient teams offensively, with Virginia ranking 11th and Houston 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Last Saturday’s 71-65 loss to Alabama, in which the Cougars gave up 42 points in the final 16:19, is the only time that UH has allowed more than 56 points this season. On the offensive end, they have been held below 65 points only twice and scored 70+ points seven times.

Virginia has been pretty sound defensively, but the Cavaliers have allowed fewer than 60 points just four times so far, two of those have come in their last two games.

On the offensive end, they have scored 62 and 55 in their last two games, both five-point wins over Florida State and James Madison. But they had hit the 70-point mark in each of their first six games, and they stunningly put up 86 in a win over Baylor last month in the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas.

The Tony Bennett way is certainly not for everyone–the Cavaliers rank 351st in average offensive possession length and 362nd in adjusted tempo–but you can’t argue with the results.

The Cavaliers are shooting 47.2 percent from the field and shooting 39.6 percent from three, and they have four players averaging double figures in scoring, led by Kihei Clark and Jayden Gardner (both at 11.6 PPG).

Virginia’s going to play the same way no matter what. It’s just a matter of whether or not it works.

Last year, it didn’t, as they shot 44.9 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from three and averaged just 62.6 PPG. It’s working thus far this season, and if it continues to, the Cavaliers could be in the national championship conversation.

Houston vs Virginia Prediction and Picks

Cougars vs Cavaliers Prediction: Virginia to win

Cougars vs Cavaliers Picks: Virginia ML (Best Value: +125 at BetUS & BetMGM)

I’m not touching the total for this one, but if I was, I’d be compelled to not only back the over, but also back an alternate higher total. For example, over 121.5 is +180 at both BetOnline and BetUS.

Is it because I love chaos so much? Partly, but also because of how most of Virginia’s games have played out thus far. The total has finished under 120 in just three of their games, with 105 (vs James Madison), 117 (72-45 win over Maryland-Eastern Shore), and 119 (vs Florida State) the totals in those games.

Houston fell apart in the final 16 minutes against Alabama, but they still scored 65 points on a bad day.

That said, a lot of things have to happen for any overs to be in play, and this one could easily end up finishing in the 40s, like Houston’s 49-44 win over Kent State did.

Long term, Houston might end up being the better team and going further in the NCAA Tournament. But Virginia is executing better on the offensive end right now, and I expect them to hold serve at home and improve to 9-0 this season.

Other College Basketball Content at Betting News

• Indiana vs Kansas Basketball Prediction & Picks
• Alabama vs Gonzaga Basketball Prediction & Picks