Iowa State vs Houston Prediction & Best Bets (Big 12 Tournament Championship): Will Defense Dominate?

After winning the Big 12 regular season title in their first year in the conference, the Houston Cougars are on the verge of a sensational sweep. Tonight, the nation’s top-ranked team will take on Iowa State for the conference tournament title in Kansas City (6:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The Cougars (30-3, 15-3 Big 12) are in the title game after trouncing TCU and Texas Tech, showcasing their trademark defensive tenacity to take down the Horned Frogs and Red Raiders.

Yesterday, they were locked in a tight battle with Texas Tech after 20 minutes, but they owned the second half, outscoring the Red Raiders 50-30 in their 82-59 victory.

As impressive as the Cougars have been, the second-seeded and seventh-ranked Cyclones (26-7, 13-5 Big 12) have been every bit as outstanding.

After bouncing tenth-seeded Kansas State 76-57 on Thursday, the Cyclones brushed aside third-seeded Baylor 76-62 yesterday to reach the tournament title tilt for the first time since 2019.

Will the Cyclones win their sixth Big 12 tournament crown? Or will the Cougars cap their first season in the conference with a regular season and tournament sweep? Read on for a prediction and best bets for the matchup between Iowa State and Houston.

Iowa State vs Houston Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Iowa State +5.5 (-112)
• Houston -5.5 (-108)

Over/Under

• Over 122.5 (-103)
• Under 122.5 (-117)

Moneyline

• Iowa State +200
• Houston -240

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of the top games each day.

Iowa State vs Houston Betting Analysis and Prediction

In the regular season, the Cyclones and Cougars split their two meetings. Iowa State claimed a 57-53 win at home on January 9, while Houston claimed a 73-65 win at home on February 19.

How will this evening’s matchup at T-Mobile Arena play out? The obvious question is whether or not defense will dominate, given that the Cougars and Cyclones are ranked #1 and #2, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom).

Yesterday was the 25^th time this season that Houston has given up 65 or fewer points. When they do that, they are 24-1 SU and 12-11-2 ATS, with the lone straight-up loss being their loss in Ames.

Yesterday’s win over Texas Tech was the 21^st time this season that Iowa State has given up 65 or fewer points. The Cyclones are 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS, with the lone straight-up loss being their 65-58 loss at Kansas State to close out the regular season last Saturday.

Iowa State is 4-4 SU and 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while Houston is 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS favored by six or fewer points. In the two regular season games against the Cougars, the Cyclones covered and won as a 1.5-point underdog and pushed as an eight-point underdog.

Can they at least cover this evening? In the first 26 Big 12 Tournament championship games, the final margin was fewer than six points just five times. Also, 19 of the first 26 Big 12 Tournament titles were won by the higher seed, including 15 of the 21 times the winner won the title game by six or more points.

Iowa State vs Houston Best Bets

Iowa State +5.5 & Iowa State/Houston over 122.5

Keeping it close against Houston isn’t an easy task, but the Cyclones have the blueprint to compete and beat the Cougars. I do think that Houston will pull out the win, but I also think the Cyclones will keep it close.

And while it may take last-minute free throws, I also like the over to cash. The last time there were 123 or fewer points in a Big 12 Tournament championship game was 2004, when Oklahoma State defeated Texas Tech 65-49. Both of these teams are outstanding defensive teams, so there is certainly some risk. But only five of Iowa State’s games have gone under 123, and only eight of Houston’s have gone under that number.

Other NCAA Basketball Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NCAA Basketball?

Throughout the college basketball season, you can find NCAA basketball odds at the top online sports betting sites. That includes prominent names like BetDSI, BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada.

Along with game odds, many sportsbooks offer men’s and women’s March Madness futures odds, Final Four odds, Wooden Award odds, and more.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Our reviews analyze available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos offered.

• BetDSI Sportsbook Review
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• MyBookie Sportsbook Review

Interested in Learning More About Betting on NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on the action from the Mountain West to the MAAC and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

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