Iowa State vs Missouri Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Tigers conquer the Cyclones in Columbia?

One of the most interesting matchups on today’s college basketball schedule pits one of the nation’s top defensive teams against one of the nation’s top offensive teams, as #12 Iowa State visits Missouri.

This Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup is set for 2:00 pm ET (1:00 pm CT) at Mizzou Arena in Columbia, and it will be televised on ESPN2.

The Cyclones (15-4, 6-2 Big 12) are tied for first place in the Big 12 after taking down #5 Kansas State 80-76 on Tuesday night, while the Tigers (15-5, 4-4 SEC) are coming off of an 89-77 win at Ole Miss on Wednesday.

Mizzou has beaten three ranked teams already this season, logging wins over Illinois, Kentucky, and Arkansas. Will they get a fourth this afternoon? Read on for our Iowa State vs Missouri basketball prediction and picks.

Iowa State vs Missouri Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, January 28, 2023, at 10:00 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Iowa State -1.5 (-110)
• Missouri +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 140.5 (-110)
• Under 140.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Iowa State -120
• Missouri +100

Can Iowa State Score to Win Again?

On Tuesday, the Cyclones shot a scorching 57.1% (28 of 49) against Kansas State. They were only 5 of 16 (31.3%) from three, but they made 23 of 33 (69.7%) of their two-point shots and made 19 of 25 (76%) of their free throws.

It was Iowa State’s second-best shooting performance of the season behind the 63.4% they shot against Western Michigan on December 18. And for the team that is dead last in the Big 12 in free-throw percentage (67.7%) but has made its shots in a number of close wins this season, it was another timely successful showing from the stripe.

But can Iowa State do it all again this afternoon? In their last two road games, two-point losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, they have shot horribly.

In their 62-60 loss at Kansas, they shot 38.3% (23 of 60) from the field, including just 37.5% (15 of 40) on two-point shots. And in their 61-59 loss at Oklahoma State, they shot just 39.7% (25 of 63), including 42.5% (23 of 54) on two-pointers.

The Cyclones, who are eighth in the country in defensive efficiency, have won on the back of defense this season, but that will be a tough task in Columbia.

Tuesday’s win showed that the Cyclones can score, if need be, but with Caleb Grill, the team’s third-leading scorer, continuing to deal with back stiffness, Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur, the team’s leading scorers, are going to have to reprise their heroics from the win over the Wildcats, as will big man Osun Osunniyi.

Iowa State is 5-0 when scoring 80+ points and 11-0 when scoring 70+ points this season, but they will be playing a dangerous game if Missouri can take this one into the 80s.

The Tigers have had their ups and downs in SEC play, but they were lights out in Wednesday’s win at Ole Miss, shooting 55.4% from the field and making 16 threes.

Iowa State vs Missouri Prediction and Picks

Iowa State vs Missouri Prediction: Missouri to win

Iowa State vs Missouri Picks: Missouri ML (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook & BetMGM) & Missouri team total over 70.5 (Best Value: BetOnline)

Iowa State is equipped to win even if Grill (10.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 37.1% 3PT) isn’t able to contribute much yet again.

And Missouri has gotten blown away at home by Kansas and Alabama, who both held the Tigers below 70 points.

But while the Cyclones are certainly as good as anyone in the country defensively, winning on the road against a team that can score like Missouri does is a tough, tough ask.

Mizzou had a weak schedule to open the season, building a gaudy record on beating mostly scrubs. But they have since shown that they can hang with and beat some of the better teams in the country, even if they took their lumps against two national title contenders in Kansas and Alabama.

Defense certainly travels, and Iowa State’s formidable record when they do score can’t be ignored. But I like the home team to come away with the W in this one and score an important victory in their quest to return to the Big Dance.

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