Men’s March Madness Bubble Watch (2/27/24): Whose NCAA Tournament Chances Are Trending Up or Trending Down?

Selection Sunday for the 2024 NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament is under three weeks away. A lot has been happening around the March Madness bubble this month, and things will only ramp up in intensity and anxiety as the big day draws closer and the margin for error decreases.

Fans of teams near the bubble may have one eye on their team’s schedule and another on what is happening elsewhere.

And if you are in that group, there’s a lot to keep an eye on in the American, ACC, Atlantic, Big East, and Pac-12.

In the A-10, Dayton is a March Madness lock. But Richmond and Loyola Chicago are a game ahead of the Flyers atop the conference standings, and neither is in at-large territory at present.

In the American, the big story is South Florida (21-5, 14-1 American). The Bulls have won 13 straight and hold a three-game lead over Florida Atlantic and Charlotte atop the conference. They are ranked this week but not in at-large territory either. Will they have to win the automatic bid to get in, or will the committee give more weight to a regular season title and the Bulls passing the eye test over unfavorable metrics?

Prep for March Madness With Our March Madness Guide

The most wonderful time of the year for college basketball enthusiasts is almost here. Get ready to follow and bet on all of the exciting action with our March Madness guide. Along with covering helpful information for betting on the NCAA Tournament, we also hook you up with the best March Madness bracket challenges and a bevy of historical facts that you can use to impress your friends and colleagues.

• March Madness Guide: How to Bet on the NCAA Tournament in 2024

Moving to the high majors, in the Pac-12, Arizona and Washington State (despite the Cougars’ loss at Arizona State on Saturday) are going dancing. But will any other tournament teams emerge from the conference? Colorado took a big step by routing Utah on Saturday, but the Buffaloes and Utes are both still on shaky ground.

In the ACC, Wake Forest took a leap towards security by taking down Duke at home last Saturday. But the Demon Deacons are far from a lock, and so is Virginia, who has moved precariously close to the bubble by dropping three of four games. With North Carolina, Duke, and Clemson the only three certainties from the conference, the next two weeks and the ACC Tournament will bear a lot of watching.

Then in the Big East, Seton Hall and Providence appear to be on the right side of the bubble for now, while Villanova and Butler are both trying to join them.

For now, here’s the bubble breakdown from several of the notable March Madness bracket predictions (ESPN, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, and NCAA.com).

Who Is Currently on the March Madness Bubble?

As of Tuesday, February 27.

ESPN (Joe Lunardi)

Last Four Byes

• Texas
• Wake Forest
• Nevada
• New Mexico

Last Four In

• Seton Hall
• Virginia
• Providence
• Gonzaga

First Four Out

• Texas A&M
• Villanova
• Utah
• Colorado

Next Four Out

• Butler
• Ole Miss
• Kansas State
• Iowa

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm)

As of Tuesday, February 27.

Last Four In

• Ole Miss
• Gonzaga
• Utah
• Wake Forest

First Four Out

• Texas
• Seton Hall
• Providence
• Oregon

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FOX Sports (Mike DeCourcy)

As of Tuesday, February 27.

Last Four In

• Wake Forest
• Ole Miss
• Texas A&M
• Virginia

First Four Out

• Utah
• Pittsburgh
• Villanova
• Colorado

Next Four Out

• Iowa
• Oregon
• St. John’s
• Cincinnati

NCAA.com (Andy Katz)

As of Tuesday, February 27.

First Four Out

• Ole Miss
• Colorado
• Utah
• Villanova

Next Four Out

• Syracuse
• St. John’s
• Pittsburgh
• Cincinnati

In addition to our March Madness guide, our college basketball betting guide covers a lot of valuable information about how to wager on all of the action in the coming weeks, including the Big Dance.

March Madness Bubble Stock Watch

Trending Up

• Iowa: The Hawkeyes fell at Illinois on Saturday but coming away from a home game against Wisconsin and road games against Michigan State and Illinois with a 2-1 record is outstanding. They have a legitimate shot now.
• Providence: The Friars are 4-1 in their last five games with home wins over Creighton and St. John’s and a road win over Xavier.
• Villanova: The Wildcats didn’t have a great time at UConn on Saturday, but they are 4-2 in February with wins over fellow bubble boys Providence, Seton Hall, and Butler.
• Wake Forest: After being held to 47 points in a loss at Virginia, the Demon Deacons put up 91 and 83 in wins over Pitt and Duke last week.

Trending Down

• Ole Miss: The Rebels have lost five of their last six games. A win over Alabama on Wednesday night would inject new life into their hopes, however.
• Texas: The Longhorns have dropped five of their last eight games and are now 6-8 in the Big 12.
• Texas A&M: The Aggies have lost four straight and were torched by 35 at Tennessee on Saturday.
• Virginia: The Cavaliers have a non-conference win over Florida, a win at Clemson, and a home win over Wake Forest. But they are 1-3 in their last four games, and if they lose at Boston College on Wednesday night, they could drop into a position of peril.

Notable March Madness Bubble Teams

Iowa

• Record: 16-12, 8-9 Big Ten
• NET: 60
• Quad 1 & Quad 2 Records: 7-11 (2-8 Quad 1, 5-3 Quad 2)
• Best Wins: Nov. 24 vs Seton Hall (neutral), Jan. 12 vs Nebraska, Feb. 17 vs Wisconsin, Feb. 20 at Michigan State
• Worst Losses: Dec. 10 vs Michigan
• Remaining Games: Feb. 27 vs Penn State (#96 NET), March 2 at Northwestern (#52 NET), March 10 vs Illinois (#17 NET)

There’s still a lot to be done before the Hawkeyes lock up a fifth straight trip to the NCAA Tournament, but the loss to Illinois didn’t alter the fact that Iowa very much has a chance. Can they win their final three games? If they do, they should be on the right side of the March Madness bubble entering the Big Ten tournament.

Ole Miss

• Record: 19-8, 6-8 SEC
• NET: 74
• Quad 1 & Quad 2 Records: 4-8 (4-6 Quad 1, 0-2 Quad 2)
• Best Wins: Jan. 10 vs Florida, Jan. 27 at Texas A&M, Jan. 30 vs Mississippi State
• Worst Losses: none
• Remaining Games: Jan. 28 vs Alabama (#6 NET), March 2 vs Missouri (#150 NET), March 5 at Georgia (#97 NET), March 9 vs Texas A&M (#58 NET)

That the Rebels are in the conversation is a notable achievement after they went 25-40 overall and 7-29 in the SEC in Kermit Davis Jr.’s last two seasons. But they have come down to earth with a mighty thud after entering February 18-3 overall and 5-3 in the SEC.

Is Saturday’s 13-point home loss to South Carolina the beginning of the end for their March Madness hopes? It won’t be if they can pull out a win over Alabama, navigate winnable road games at Missouri and Georgia, and see off fading Texas A&M to close out the regular season.

That’s a lot to ask of this team with how things appear to be going right now, but they are still very much in the race at this stage.

Many important matchups will take place over the next few weeks as the regular season winds down and conference tournaments take place. Bookmark our NCAA basketball picks page so to get free aggregated consensus picks for all of these major matchups from top sports betting industry sources.

Villanova

• Record: 15-12, 8-8 Big East
• NET: 38
• Quad 1 & Quad 2 Records: 9-9 (3-8 Quad 1, 6-1 Quad 2)
• Best Wins: Nov. 22 vs Texas Tech (neutral), Nov. 23 vs North Carolina (neutral), Dec. 20 at Creighton
• Worst Losses: Nov. 13 at Penn, Nov. 29 vs Saint Joseph’s, Dec. 2 vs Drexel (semi-home)
• Remaining Games: Feb. 27 vs Georgetown (#198 NET), March 2 at Providence (#54 NET), March 6 at Seton Hall (#61 NET), March 9 vs Creighton (#11 NET)

One benefit of being a school like Villanova is that as long as you’re near the surface, your metrics will remain favorable enough until you start accumulating enough wins to get on the right side of the March Madness bubble.

Is that unfortunate for high achievers like South Florida, James Madison, and others who have excelled this season but don’t have favorable metrics? Perhaps, but the Wildcats can take any drama or questions out of the equation by going at least 3-1 in their last four games.

That would give them 11 Big East wins, and provided the lone loss isn’t to Georgetown tonight, a 3-1 finish would give them five Q1 wins and 11 combined Q1 and Q2 wins, including two of the best wins anyone could hope for.

Wake Forest

• Record: 18-9, 10-6 ACC
• NET: 25
• Quad 1 & Quad 2 Records: 6-9 (2-4 Quad 1, 4-5 Quad 2)
• Best Wins: Nov. 29 vs Florida, Feb. 24 vs Duke
• Worst Losses: none
• Remaining Games: Feb. 27 at Notre Dame (#140 NET), March 2 vs Virginia Tech (#56 NET), March 5 vs Georgia Tech (#139 NET), March 9 vs Clemson (#23 NET)

After torching Pittsburgh by 33 and taking down Duke, the Demon Deacons are now in the field of 68 at ESPN, CBS, FOX, and NCAA.com.

Saturday’s 83-79 win over the Blue Devils provides some much-needed substance to Wake’s resume, which previously contained little else besides the win over Florida.

Now comes the hard part. A loss at Virginia Tech would be forgivable, but can they avoid a slip-up against the 10-17 Irish?

Two seasons ago, the Demon Deacons went 23-8 in the regular season but ended up on the wrong side of the March Madness bubble after early elimination at the ACC tournament. If they can defeat Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, Wake should be certain to go dancing for the first time since 2017, no matter what happens in D.C.

More March Madness Information

What Are the Best March Madness Betting Sites?

Numerous sportsbooks are good for March Madness betting, including the two mentioned above, BetOnline and BetUS. In addition to those two sports betting sites, Bovada and MyBookie are two other great options for March Madness betting.

• BetOnline (Review)
• BetUS (Review)
• Bovada (Review)
• MyBookie (Review)

All four of those well-known sports betting sites will have both men’s and women’s March Madness odds this year. Are you unfamiliar with any of these sites? Check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about what they offer. Each review covers betting options, deposit and payout options, and more.

Speaking of offers, keep an eye on the latest sportsbook offers from these books and others as the countdown to the opening tip of March Madness continues. That way, you will not miss out on any special sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos to pad your bankroll for March Madness betting.

Other March Madness Content at Betting News

You can find links to all of our content for this year’s NCAA Division I men’s and women’s basketball tournaments at our March Madness guide, but here are some of the most notable pieces to peruse in the coming weeks:

• 2024 Men’s March Madness Futures Odds
• Men’s March Madness Sleepers for 2024
• Men’s March Madness Bubble Watch

Also, follow us X (formerly known as Twitter), Twitch, and TikTok to catch all of the March Madness content that we will be posting on our socials.

• Betting News on X
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• Betting News on TikTok