NCAA Tournament Upsets: March Madness Trend Continues in 2022

One of the best parts about March Madness every year is the upsets. Well, unless you have a tie of some sort to a team that gets upset. But every year, we can look forward to a number of upsets, even in years in which things go relatively well for favorites. And the 2022 NCAA Tournament has been no exception.

In the end, it is likely that a top seed will cut down the nets on April 4 in New Orleans, which is the location of this year’s Final Four. After all, in 21 of the previous 30 editions of the NCAA Tournament, a #1 seed has won the championship. That includes Louisville’s 2013 vacated title, as the Cardinals were the #1 overall seed that year.

But ten lower seeds won in the first round, including three of the four #9 seeds. The only exception was Marquette, who was throttled by #8 North Carolina (more on them later) in the East Region.

The Midwest Region led the way with four lower seeds winning in the first round in Creighton, Miami (FL), Iowa State, and Richmond.

With seven double-digit seeds reaching the second round, this marks the 14th straight time that at least five double-digit seeds have made it to the round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. The last time fewer than five double-digit seeds made it out of the first round was 2007, when only two advanced (Winthrop and VCU, both #11 seeds).

And of those lower seeds who advanced to the second round, at least two will be in the Sweet Sixteen.

Michigan and Saint Peter’s Headline March Madness Lower Seed Successes

This year’s March Madness Cinderella story is Saint Peter’s, the #15 seed in the East Region. The Peacocks, who hail from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, shocked the college basketball world by sending Kentucky home in the first round. The Wildcats entered the 2022 NCAA Tournament as one of the national title favorites, but the Peacocks were not overawed in the slightest and outlasted UK in overtime.

Michigan is also in the Sweet Sixteen, but the Wolverines aren’t quite the underdog that Saint Peter’s is. Prior to the season, Michigan was projected as a potential Final Four team. But after struggling to find consistent success throughout the season, the Wolverines were fortunate to make the March Madness field as the #11 seed in the South Region.

But after wins over #6 Colorado State and #3 Tennessee, Michigan is headed to San Antonio, along with South Region #1 seed Arizona, #2 Villanova, and #5 Houston.

Here’s a look at all of the wins by lower seeds over higher seeds thus far in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

It goes without saying, but all of these wins are not equal. Michigan was favored over Colorado State, Memphis was favored over Boise State despite being the lower seed, and Houston was favored over Illinois. And Iowa State was facing an overseeded LSU team that had not played particularly well before the tournament and was playing without former head coach Will Wade, who was fired the day before Selection Sunday.

2022 March Madness Upsets and Lower Seed Over Higher Seed Wins

NCAA Tournament First Round

West Region

• #12 New Mexico State 70, #5 UConn 63 (West Region)
• #11 Notre Dame 78, #6 Alabama 64 (West Region)
• #9 Memphis 64, #8 Boise State 53 (West Region)

East Region

• #15 Saint Peter’s 85, #2 Kentucky 79

South Region

• #11 Michigan 75, #6 Colorado State 63 (South Region)
• #9 TCU 69, #8 Seton Hall 42 (South Region)

Midwest Region

• #12 Richmond 67, #5 Iowa 63 (Midwest Region)
• #11 Iowa State 59, #6 LSU 54 (Midwest Region)
• #10 Miami (FL) 68, #7 USC 66 (Midwest Region)
• #9 Creighton 72, #8 San Diego State 69 (Midwest Region)

NCAA Tournament Second Round

• #15 Saint Peter’s 70, #7 Murray State 60 (East Region)
• #11 Iowa State 54, #3 Wisconsin 49 (Midwest Region)
• #11 Michigan 76, #3 Tennessee 68 (South Region)
• #10 Miami (FL) 79, #2 Auburn 61 (Midwest Region)
• #8 North Carolina 93, #1 Baylor 86 (East Region)
• #5 Houston 68, #4 Illinois 53 (South Region)

Will This Year’s March Madness Upsets and Double-Digit Seed Wins Continue into the Sweet Sixteen and Beyond?

With Iowa State and Miami set to meet in the Sweet Sixteen, we will see at least one double-digit seed in the Elite Eight.

Based on recent history, should we expect to see more than that?

The NCAA Tournament started using seeding with the 1979 tournament, the year that future NBA legends Larry Bird (Indiana State) and Magic Johnson (Michigan State) faced off for the national championship.

That year’s NCAA Tournament featured 40 teams, so there were only four double-digit seeds. The next year, the tournament expanded to 48 teams, then in 1985, the field expanded to 64 teams. Since then, March Madness has featured a 64-team first round.

From 1985 to 2010, 15 double-digit seeds reached the Elite Eight. Two of those teams, LSU in 1986 (a #11 seed) and George Mason (a #11 seed in 2006), went on to reach the Final Four.

Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams and added the First Four instead of a single play-in game (which took place from 2001 to 2010), seven double-digit seeds have reached the Elite Eight.

Double-Digit Seeds to Reach the Final Four (Since 2011)

• 2011: VCU (#11 seed in the Southwest Region – defeated #1 seed Kansas in the Elite Eight)
• 2016: Syracuse (#10 seed in the Midwest Region – defeated #1 seed Virginia in the Elite Eight)
• 2018: Loyola-Chicago (#11 seed in the South Region – defeated #9 seed Kansas State in the Elite Eight)
• 2021: UCLA (#11 seed in the East Region – defeated #1 seed Michigan in the Elite Eight)

VCU and UCLA both emerged from the First Four to the Final Four, which no team will do this year with all First Four winners having been eliminated already.

Last year was the first time in the 68-team era that two double-digit seeds advanced to the Elite Eight. In addition to UCLA winning the East Region to reach the Final Four, Pac-12 counterpart Oregon State, who only made the NCAA Tournament field by virtue of winning the Pac-12 Tournament, reached the Midwest Region final, where they lost to Houston.

With either Iowa State or Miami assured of a place in the Elite Eight, Michigan seemingly having rediscovered its best right on time (and with starting point guard DeVante’ Jones potentially set to return for the Sweet Sixteen matchup with #2 seed Villanova after missing the first two games), and a fearless group of Peacocks from Saint Peter’s, there is a good chance we could see multiple double-digit seeds in the Elite Eight for the second year in a row.