Marquette vs UConn Basketball Prediction & Picks: Is the over the play to hang your hat on in Hartford?

After picking up back-to-back wins for the first time in 2023, UConn has something resembling some positive momentum for the first time in a while. But it’s a big step up from DePaul and Georgetown, even on the road, to taking on conference co-leader Marquette tonight.

Tonight’s matchup at the XL Center in Hartford (6:30 pm ET, FS1) is big for the #21 Huskies (18-6, 7-6 Big East), who moved up three spots in this week’s AP poll after their wins over the Blue Demons and Hoyas.

If UConn is to have any hope of land a top-four seed in the Big East tournament and in the NCAA Tournament, a win tonight over #10 Marquette (19-5, 11-2 Big East) is imperative.

Who will come out on top in this clash of ranked Big East clubs? Read on for our Marquette vs UConn prediction and picks, as well as our analysis for tonight’s matchup in Hartford.

Marquette vs UConn Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, February 7, 2023, at 10:45 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Marquette +4.5 (-114)
• UConn -4.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 147.5 (-106)
• Under 147.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• Marquette +155
• UConn -188

Marquette, UConn Trends Point in Clear Direction

Entering today, the Golden Eagles rank 19th in Division I in scoring (81.3 PPG) and fourth in field goal percentage (50.0%).

They exceeded both of those numbers in their 82-76 win over UConn in Milwaukee on January 11, as they shot 50.9% from the field in their win.

The Huskies also surpassed their shooting percentage for the season in that game, shooting 48.3% in the loss compared to a 45.9% for the season entering today.

However, they lost in part because they underperformed from the perimeter, making just 6 of 22 (27.2%) from three, and because they made 16 turnovers, which is higher than the 12.5 they average per game for the season.

Offensive Statistics and Metrics for Marquette

• PPG: 81.3
• FG%: 50.0%
• 3PT%: 35.4%
• 2PT%: 60.4%
• FT%: 71.0%
• Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 4th

Offensive Statistics and Metrics for UConn

• PPG: 79.3
• FG%: 45.7%
• 3PT%: 35.6%
• 2PT%: 53.0%
• FT%: 75.2%
• Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 10th

Another higher-scoring game is likely in the cards tonight, based on the trends for both teams.

In UConn’s Big East games, the over is 8-5-0, while it is 7-6-0 in Marquette’s Big East games. Those aren’t especially outstanding numbers, but it is also worth noting that the over is 5-1-0 in the Huskies’ home games in conference play and 10-3-0 overall this season in their home games.

Also, both teams are unlikely to be held below 70 in back-to-back games.

To date, UConn has failed to score 70+ points in consecutive games only once, when they followed a 73-61 loss at Providence with a 69-60 win over Creighton.

Marquette, meanwhile, has yet to be held below 70 points in back-to-back games. In fact, their two games last week, a 73-64 win over Villanova and a 60-52 win over Butler, are the first time this season that they were held below 75 points in consecutive games.

Marquette vs UConn Prediction and Picks

Golden Eagles vs Huskies Prediction: Marquette to win

Golden Eagles vs Huskies Picks: Marquette +4.5 (Best Value: BetOnline) & Marquette/UConn over (Best Value: over 147 @ Bovada Sportsbook & BetUS)

In Big East play, UConn is just 4-9 ATS, including a 2-4 mark at home, while Marquette is 4-2 ATS in road games and 10-3 ATS overall.

The Golden Eagles are also 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season, with a push in a three-point loss to Mississippi State and a loss as a three-point underdog in an 80-76 loss at Xavier.

Beyond all the trends, Marquette has also done a good job of passing the eye test even in losses, scoring 98 points in a five-point, double-overtime loss at Providence and playing it close in their loss at Xavier.

UConn, meanwhile, has not had an easy time of it in conference play since winning their first three Big East games. There is a really good team in there, but will it come out when it needs to? I’m not convinced at this point.

You never want to look ahead, but a win tonight will put the Golden Eagles in a favorable position for the Big East regular season title, as their two toughest remaining games are at home to fellow co-leader Xavier–who is currently without Zach Freemantle–and at Creighton.

I don’t know how the rest of Marquette’s conference slate will go, but I like them to go into Hartford tonight and get a big win over UConn.

Looking for more college basketball picks? Check out Doc’s Sports, where you can find both free sports picks and premium sports picks for tonight’s college basketball, NBA, and NHL games.

If you’d like to try before you buy, Doc’s Sports is currently offering $60 in free premium picks for new signups. That’s a deal not to be passed up, folks.