Michigan State vs Penn State Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Spartans step up after stunning Sunday setback?

It may only be early December, but after being upset at home by Northwestern to open Big Ten play on Sunday, Michigan State is already in must-win territory for tonight’s matchup at Penn State.

Losses to Gonzaga and Alabama are one thing.

But an 18-point loss at Notre Dame, followed by a home loss to Northwestern in which they trailed for the final 23 minutes and scored only five points in the last 4:50? Yikes. Big yikes.

And while they have five home games to look forward to after tonight’s matchup with Penn State, an 0-2 start to their conference campaign and five losses before mid-December are not what Tom Izzo would want to have on his hands.

But Penn State upset a ranked Michigan State squad at home last season, and the Nittany Lions have the goods to knock off the Spartans again. Will they get it done? Read on for our Michigan State vs Penn State prediction and picks.

Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (5-4, 0-1 Big Ten) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2, 0-0 Big Ten)
• Venue & Location: Bryce Jordan Center (University Park, Pennsylvania)
• Date: Wednesday, December 7, 2022
• Game Time: 6:30 pm ET
• How to Watch Michigan State vs Penn State: Big Ten Network

Michigan State vs Penn State Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Wednesday, December 7, 2022, at 2:05 pm ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Michigan State +4.5 (-115)
• Penn State -4.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 136.5 (-110)
• Under 136.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State +152
• Penn State -180

Will Scoring Struggles Continue to Stifle Spartans?

In their first seven games of the season, Michigan State scored 70+ points in all but one game, their 64-63 loss to Gonzaga in their second game of the season.

But they have hit an ill-timed rough spot on the offensive end, which doomed them against both Notre Dame and Northwestern.

Against the Fighting Irish, they shot only 38.9 percent (21 of 54) from the field and 33.3 percent (4 of 12) from three, and they attempted only six free throws in the 70-52 loss. Of their 52 points, exactly three-fourths (39) came from three players.

Against Northwestern, the Spartans shot 41.8 percent (23 of 55) from the field and 36.4 percent (8 of 22) from three, and no one scored more than 12 points.

They can ill-afford to have another subpar showing offensively against Penn State, who is one of the most dangerous shooting teams in college basketball.

The Nittany Lions rank first in the country in made threes per game (12.1), eighth in threes attempted per game (30.0), and 13th in three-point percentage (40.4 percent). Their five leading scorers have all made at least ten threes thus far this season.

Their best player so far is shooting only 31.3 percent from three, which is a career low for a guy with over 200 made threes in his collegiate career.

But it is one of the few things that isn’t going well right now for Jalen Pickett, who is averaging 16.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 7.6 APG.

In Penn State’s most recent game, a 101-94 double overtime loss to Clemson in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge last week, Pickett (23 points, seven board, eight assists) was one of three 20-point scorers for the Nittany Lions (Camren Wynter had 26, while Seth Lundy had 23 points and 12 boards), but he missed all seven of his threes.

Given that Pickett has made at least one three in nearly 90 percent of his collegiate games between Siena and Penn State, we likely won’t see him have another 0-fer from outside.

Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction and Picks

Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction: Penn State to win

Michigan State vs Penn State Picks: Michigan State/Penn State first half over (Best Value: over 63.5 @ -120 at BetOnline) & Penn State team total over (Best Value: over 70.5 @ +100 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Oddsmakers will often give the big names favor even when their play doesn’t warrant it, but this is the second notable example in recent days of it not happening.

On Sunday, Virginia Tech was favored at home against preseason #1 North Carolina, who went into the game with three straight losses.

I liked the Hokies over the struggling Tar Heels in that matchup, and they backed up my confidence and the odds with an 80-72 win.

The spread’s a bit bigger in this matchup, but I see the same outcome. Tom Izzo teams have had a knack for stepping up when they were not expected to, but Penn State held serve at home last year and are even more equipped to do so this year.

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