Mississippi State vs LSU Basketball Prediction & Best Bets (SEC Tournament 2nd Round): Will the Bulldogs Win to Get In?

After dropping their final four regular season games, Mississippi State has little margin for error entering their SEC Tournament matchup with LSU. If the ninth-seeded Bulldogs defeat the eighth-seeded Tigers, they will likely lock up a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. If they lose, they will face an anxious wait for Selection Sunday.

The Bulldogs (19-12, 8-10 SEC) moved into a solid position in the March Madness field with a five-game win streak in February. But a heartbreaking home loss to Kentucky started a season-ending losing skid, which also featured losses at Auburn and Texas A&M and a tough overtime loss to South Carolina at home.

With non-conference wins over Washington State and Northwestern and conference wins over Tennessee and Auburn, the Bulldogs have a strong case to make the field of 68. And as of Wednesday’s bracketology updates at ESPN and CBS Sports, they were still in a position of security.

But if MSU can’t defeat LSU (17-14, 9-9 SEC) for a second time this season, the best-case scenario might be a second straight trip to Dayton, Ohio for the First Four.

Mississippi State vs LSU Odds

Odds are via Bovada, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our Bovada sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Mississippi State -5 (-105)
• LSU +5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 145 (-110)
• Under 145 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mississippi State -200
• LSU +170

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of the top games each day.

Mississippi State vs LSU Betting Analysis and Prediction

When the Bulldogs and Tigers met in Baton Rouge on February 24, Mississippi State rolled to an 87-67 win behind 32 points by Josh Hubbard.

To date, it is their most recent win. LSU, meanwhile, wrapped up the regular season with three wins in their last four games, with the lone blemish coming at Arkansas last week.

The numbers do not favor a fourth win in five games for the Tigers. For the season, they are 3-12 SU and 5-10 ATS as an underdog, and they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when an underdog by five or fewer points.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, is 4-3 SU and ATS when favored by five or fewer points. However, in four instances in SEC play, their win over LSU is their lone SU & ATS victory in that spot.

If the spread widens, the numbers are better. The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU and ATS when favored by 5.5 to 10 points, with last Saturday’s OT loss to South Carolina and a November 28 loss at Georgia Tech accounting for the two defeats.

Beyond the betting numbers, the Bulldogs are the better team despite being the lower seed and should get the job done to set up a quarterfinal matchup with #1 seed Tennessee.

Their defensive prowess, which was the biggest reason that they were a tournament team last season, has dropped off. But with Hubbard (16.8 PPG), who has scored 23+ points in five consecutive games, MSU is one of 34 teams that rank in the top 60 at KenPom in both adjusted offensive efficiency (55^th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (24^th).

Mississippi State vs LSU Best Bets

Josh Hubbard over 3.5 made threes (+100 at Bovada) & over 20.5 points (-115 at Bovada)

When the Bulldogs won in Baton Rouge last month, Hubbard was 9 of 17 from the field, including 6 of 12 from three.

That was the first of five straight games in which he has at least four made threes and 23+ points.

Given his recent run and his likely volume, both plays above are appealing. He averaged 15.2 field goal attempts and 9.7 three-point attempts in SEC play, but over the last five games, he has averaged 19.4 field goal attempts and 13 three-point attempts per game.

Also, while he is not a prolific free-throw shooter (3.9 attempts per game for the season), he has attempted at least six foul shots in four of his last five games and is shooting 84.2% from the stripe for the season. In the previous meeting with LSU, he made all eight of his free throws.

Other NCAA Basketball Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NCAA Basketball?

Throughout the college basketball season, you can find NCAA basketball odds at the top online sports betting sites. That includes prominent names like BetDSI, BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada.

Along with game odds, many sportsbooks offer men’s and women’s March Madness futures odds, Final Four odds, Wooden Award odds, and more.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Our reviews analyze available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos offered.

• BetDSI Sportsbook Review
• BetOnline Sportsbook Review
• BetUS Sportsbook Review
• Bovada Sportsbook Review
• MyBookie Sportsbook Review

Interested in Learning More About Betting on NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on the action from the Mountain West to the MAAC and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, check out our March Madness guide, and learn valuable March Madness betting tips, where you can find the best March Madness bracket challenges, who the Final Four favorites are, and much more.

• March Madness Guide

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