Missouri vs Arkansas Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Hogs tame the Tigers?

After dominating Illinois and Kentucky to move into the national rankings, #20 Missouri (12-2, 1-0 SEC) will look to make it three straight wins over ranked teams tonight as they visit #13 Arkansas (11-2, 0-1 SEC).

Tonight’s matchup between the Tigers and Razorbacks is set to tip off at 8:30 pm ET (7:30 pm local time), and you can catch the action on the SEC Network (or the ESPN app).

After routing Illinois by 22 in St. Louis, Missouri opened SEC play last week with an 89-75 win over Kentucky.

Now, the high-scoring and high-flying Tigers will take aim at a huge road win over the Razorbacks, who opened SEC play with a close loss at LSU.

Read on for our Missouri vs Arkansas prediction, as well as our picks for tonight’s tilt in Fayetteville.

Missouri vs Arkansas Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Wednesday, January 4, 2023, at 4:50 pm ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Missouri +7.5 (-102)
• Arkansas -7.5 (-120)

Over/Under

• Over 155.5 (-115)
• Under 155.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Missouri +270
• Arkansas -345

Will the Razorbacks Ride Offensive Success to Stop Missouri?

In last Wednesday’s 60-57 loss in Baton Rouge, Arkansas was held to a season low in points, shot just 36.9% (24 of 65) from the field and 16% (4 of 25) from three.

Still, the Razorbacks had first a chance to take the lead in the final seconds, and as disappointing as the loss was, it shouldn’t derail them in their quest for an SEC title and a high NCAA Tournament seed.

There are some reasonable concerns, certainly. Nick Smith Jr. remains out, and the Hogs are shooting only 30.0% from three, which is 12th in the SEC.

If the two-point shots aren’t falling at the level that they need to, they can find themselves some trouble, as was the case against LSU.

For the season, Arkansas is shooting 55.5% on two-point shots, but they shot only 50% (20 of 40) against the Tigers. Ricky Council IV, the team’s leading scorer (17.9 PPG), went into the game making 58.6% of his two-pointers but was only 4 of 14 (28.6%) on twos in Baton Rouge.

The shots are going to need to be falling against Missouri, who leads the SEC in scoring (88.8 PPG, 3rd in the country) and field goal percentage (51.1%, 4th nationally) and is second in three-point percentage (37.1%, 61st nationally).

Mizzou has three players shooting over 40% from three, led by Kobe Brown, the team’s second-leading scorer (15.6 PPG).

Leading Offensive Threats for Missouri

• D’Moi Hodge: 16.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.2 APG, 2.8 SPG, 52.0% FG, 41.8 3PT
• Kobe Brown: 15.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.3 SPG, 60.6% FG, 45.7% 3PT, 80.5% FT
• Noah Carter: 10.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 51.5% FG, 36.2% 3PT
• DeAndre Gholston: 10.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 44.2% FG, 32.4% 3PT, 80.5% FT
• Nick Honor: 10.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.2 SPG, 48.8% FG, 44.6% 3PT, 85.2% FT

Brown was at the center of the wins over Illinois and Kentucky, putting up 31 points (10 of 15 FG, 3 of 4 3PT, 8 of 8 FT), five rebounds, eight assists, and four steals against the Illini and 30 points (10 of 18 FG, 4 of 8 3PT, 6 of 8 FT) and six rebounds against the Wildcats.

Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction and Picks

Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction: Arkansas to win

Missouri vs Arkansas Picks: Missouri/Arkansas over 155.5 (Best Value: BetMGM) & Missouri/Arkansas first half over 73.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook)

Things didn’t go well for the Razorbacks in Baton Rouge, but I expect them to bounce back tonight and get the win over Missouri.

Last Wednesday’s loss was just the third time this season that Arkansas shot 40% or worse.

After shooting exactly 40% (24 of 60) against San Diego State at the Maui Invitational, they shot 52.9% (27 of 51) in a win over Troy the next time out.

And after shooting a season-low 33.3% against UNC Greensboro on December 6, they shot 59.3% (their second-highest percentage of the season behind 62.7% in a 99-58 win over San Jose State) in an 88-78 win over Oklahoma four days later.

Both of those games are also the only two times this season that Arkansas has shot below 50% on two-point shots.

They shot 48.8% (21 of 43) on two-pointers against the Aztecs, then shot 60% (24 of 40) on twos against Troy. And after shooting only 41.7% (15 of 36) on twos against UNC Greensboro, they shot 66.0% (31 of 47) on two-pointers against the Sooners.

Those numbers bode well for tonight’s matchup against Missouri, and I feel very good about backing them to get the job done at home in a high-scoring game.

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