NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Sunday College Hoops (1/19)

NFL Sunday is here, however, we still have some College Hoops games for your viewing pleasure as well. So naturally, we perused the slate and found some potential edges. Let’s dive in and discuss our NCAA Basketball best bets for tonight.

For all of our Expert NCAA Basketball Picks, check out our page here. But for now, let’s get right into it!

Listed below are my College Hoops best bets for today, but be sure to get all of my picks on my Twitter (@Shaggy_Bets)

NCAA Basketball Best Bets – January 19th, 2025

#18 Memphis vs Charlotte Predictions

Best Bets: Memphis -11 (-115) BetOnline

We are backing the Tigers on the road on this big spread, but let me explain why. First off, they are coming off an outright loss at Temple. The Owls are much better than the 49ers, so I’m not worried about the struggles continuing on the road. Instead, I think this is a perfect “get right” spot for Memphis before heading home. The Tigers are 18th in the AP Top 25, they rank #47th on Bart Torvik, while Charlotte is 270th. Memphis is simply the better team.

They have a Top 60 offense and defense, with their offense only improving on the road. In 5 road games this year, Memphis is Top 30 in eFG%, and Top 55 in both offensive rebounds and FT Rate. Penny Hardaway’s team does a great job of earning trips to the charity stripe, where they shoot almost 74%. The Tigers love to run, ranking 76th in pace, while also playing fantastic defense. They are 32nd in eFG Defense, but do have some trouble keeping teams off the offensive glass. That won’t be an issue tonight against Charlotte who struggle everywhere on the court.

Charlotte plays slow, so speeding up to the Tigers’ pace won’t benefit them at all, especially considering they are north of 300 in eFG% and overall defensive efficiency. They don’t force turnovers, but they take care of the basketball. Charlotte is north of 300 in offensive rebounds as well, but they are Top 10 at getting to the free throw line. The 49ers don’t shoot threes, can’t necessarily defend the perimeter at home either, so this could be a long day for the hosts. Charlotte has lost six straight games, and are literally Bottom 20 in shooting percentage in their own gym.

Give me the Tigers to run up and down and do whatever they please on offense.

TCU vs #25 Baylor Predictions

Best Bets: Baylor TT Over 74.5 (-120) BetOnline

This is a very high number for the Baylor Bears, who rank 268th in possessions per game, but at home, this team is a different animal. Overall they rank 20th in offensive efficiency, and 48th on defense, but those numbers drastically improve in Waco. In seven games at Foster Pavilion this season, the Bears are 5th and 6th in offensive and defensive efficiency. They are 7-0, rank 16th in eFG%, 6th in turnovers forced, and 5th in offensive rebounds, while also jumping to 169th in possessions per game.

What does this mean? At home, the Baylor Bears play much faster, shoot significantly better, and play incredible defense. But they’ve probably played a bunch of nobodies at home, right? Wrong.

Baylor’s last two games at home have been Big 12 conference games, taking down Utah (62nd on Bart Torvik) and Cincinnati (42nd). The Bears beat the Utes 81-56, while taking down the Bearcats 68-48. They’ve cleared 80+ points in 6/7 games at home this season, and coming off a tough set of road games, this could be their bounce back spot. Baylor hosts Kansas State on Wednesday, so there’s no worry of them looking ahead, but that’s not the case for the Horned Frogs.

TCU not only hosts Kansas on Wednesday, they have also not been playing great defense recently. Their defensive eFG% has been over 55% in three straight games and 4 of their L5, and playing this Bears offense at home won’t be any easier. While TCU is a Top 21 defense overall, they drop off in six games away from home this year. The Horned Frogs offense also does not travel with them, as they rank north of 315 in eFG% away from home, where they post an 0-6 record this season.

TCU gives up tons of offensive rebounds (331st) and I see Baylor having plenty of second chance points in this game. The Horned Frogs will speed up to the pace of Baylor and ultimately give them enough possessions to put up 75 for us.

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