New Mexico vs San Diego State Prediction & Best Bets (MWC Tournament Championship): Will the Lobos Leave No Doubt?

Is New Mexico going dancing for the first time since 2014? After wins over Boise State and Colorado State the past two days, the Lobos could very well be in the field of 68 at this point. But to avoid any potential drama or Selection Sunday heartbreak, the Lobos have one final hurdle to navigate, with a matchup against San Diego State in today’s Mountain West Conference tournament championship game (6:00 pm ET, CBS).

The sixth-seeded Lobos (25-9, 10-8 Mountain West) have seen off #11 Air Force, #3 Boise State, and #7 Colorado State each by double digits to reach the tournament title game for the first time since 2018.

Even if they fall to the fifth-seeded Aztecs (24-9, 11-7 Mountain West), there’s a good chance the Lobos will be in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014, when they made the most recent of their 15 all-time appearances.

But with potential bid stealers in the ACC (NC State), Pac-12 (Oregon), and American Athletic Conference (someone other than FAU), New Mexico can’t count on hoping that their wins over two tournament locks will be enough.

San Diego State, meanwhile, is looking to go back-to-back after defeating Utah State in last year’s championship game. The Aztecs, who beat #4 UNLV on Thursday and #1 Utah State last night, are playing for the conference title for the seventh straight season and the tenth time in 11 seasons. Overall, this will be their 16^th championship game appearance in 25 editions of the Mountain West tournament, which is twice as many as anyone else.

New Mexico vs San Diego State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• New Mexico +2 (-115)
• San Diego State -2 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 142 (-115)
• Under 142 (-105)

Moneyline

• New Mexico +104
• San Diego State -124

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of the top games each day.

New Mexico vs San Diego State Betting Analysis and Prediction

When the Lobos are playing well, they can beat anyone. They showed that in Thursday’s 76-66 win over Boise State and again yesterday in their 74-61 win over Colorado State.

The Lobos are now 7-0 in neutral-site games this season, which helps offset the 4-6 away record that is key to why they are on the March Madness bubble still.

An eighth win would remove any bubble concerns and crown New Mexico a conference champion for the first time since 2014, when they defeated San Diego State 64-58 for a tournament three-peat.

Will they be able to prevent the Aztecs from recording the fifth repeat in tournament history?

If they bring the same effort they did against the Rams and Broncos, they will. That is the same effort that saw them defeat San Diego State 88-70 in Albuquerque on January 13.

In that game, SDSU trailed 53-50 with 13 minutes left. Then UNM went on a 20-3 run over the course of the next seven minutes to take complete command of the game.

New Mexico is only 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season, with the lone straight-up win an 83-82 win at Nevada on February 13.

The Aztecs are 2-2 SU and 1-3 when favored by five or fewer points this season, with outright at Grand Canyon and UNLV as well as a missed cover in their overtime win over UNLV on Thursday.

San Diego State quite impressively dispatched #1 seed Utah State 86-70 last night, and they look primed to make another March Madness run after reaching the national championship game last season.

But New Mexico has already shown that they can beat San Diego State and knowing that they can make their Selection Sunday a lot less stressful with a win tonight will drive the Lobos to lock up the automatic bid in Las Vegas.

New Mexico vs San Diego State Best Bets

New Mexico +2.5 & New Mexico ML

With the two regular season meetings both hitting the 150-point mark, the over has a lot of appeal as well.

But because of how Mountain West tournament title games usually go, that one will stay shelved. There have been more than 142 points in only two of San Diego State’s 15 previous title game appearances, which accounts for two of five overall in 24 previous Mountain West tournament title games.

Other NCAA Basketball Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NCAA Basketball?

Throughout the college basketball season, you can find NCAA basketball odds at the top online sports betting sites. That includes prominent names like BetDSI, BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada.

Along with game odds, many sportsbooks offer men’s and women’s March Madness futures odds, Final Four odds, Wooden Award odds, and more.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Our reviews analyze available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos offered.

• BetDSI Sportsbook Review
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• Bovada Sportsbook Review
• MyBookie Sportsbook Review

Interested in Learning More About Betting on NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on the action from the Mountain West to the MAAC and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, check out our March Madness guide, and learn valuable March Madness betting tips, where you can find the best March Madness bracket challenges, who the Final Four favorites are, and much more.

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