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#16 Kentucky vs Mississippi State Odds & Predictions: An Unranked Home Favorite
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Once again, we are blessed with another beautiful Tuesday night filled with excellent college basketball. Tonight, we have a SEC showdown featuring the Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Two teams that have been playing some impressive ball. In their last three games, Kentucky has taken down two top-ranked schools, #14 Auburn and #13 Alabama.
NO. 17 KENTUCKY DOMINATES NO. 13 ALABAMA ?
The Wildcats bounce back from a loss with an INCREDIBLE offensive display ? pic.twitter.com/YIcK0NgcY0
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 24, 2024
Mississippi State has been on a heater, winning 5 straight games. They have been lights out at home in conference this season, winning six of their seven games. Their lone loss coming against Alabama. In those seven games, they are allowing 66.7 points per game.
This SEC matchup should be one of the best on the slate. Make sure to get your popcorn ready!
#16 Kentucky vs Mississippi State Betting Odds
Picks in this piece are courtesy of Bovada. At Bovada, you can get great odds on all of the top college basketball matchups every day.
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Let’s check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.
- 15-15-2 (46%)
(As of February 26, 2024)
Spread
Kentucky: (+3.5) (-115)
Miss State: (+3.5) (-105)
Total
Over: 157.0 (-110)
Under: 157.0 (-110)
Moneyline
Kentucky: +140
Miss State: -165
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#16 Kentucky vs Mississippi Prediction
Mississippi State guard, Josh Hubbard preparing to shoot a free throw
The Stank:
I will not leave this Kentucky team alone. Tonight, I will be fading them. Why? The Wildcats are not consistent enough to go back-to-back games, shooting 63.1% from the field and 54.2% from behind the arc. Oh, you think they could? How did Creighton shoot against St. John’s on Sunday? Not as good as they did against UConn? I wonder why? It is hard to go back-to-back games having a career shooting night. I am not saying this will be a blowout win for Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs should pull off the win and cover.
I also love Mississippi State because of the revenge factor. In their first meeting on January 17th, the Wildcats beat the Bulldogs 90-77 as 6.5-point favorites. Now, at home, the Bulldogs open as 2.5-point favorites. The Bulldogs should be ready to go to war.
She’s a beaut ?#HailState? x @HailStateMBK pic.twitter.com/V5qrPwbEDv
— Mississippi State Athletics (@HailState) February 27, 2024
Especially with their lockdown defense, Mississippi State is 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. On top of that, they force a lot of turnovers and defend the perimeter very well. Offensively, the Bulldogs are top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Top 40 in offensive rebounding and free throw rate.
Mississippi State likes to run a slower-paced offense if they control the pace and prevent the Wildcats from running. It should disrupt their offense and lead to a Bulldogs victory.
Prediction: Mississippi State Wins
Pick: Miss State (-3.5) (-105) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Where to find more advanced analytics
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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