Purdue vs Michigan State Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Boilermakers survive in East Lansing?

Will there be a tie atop the Big Ten men’s basketball standings this evening? That’s what Michigan State will be hoping for as they host Purdue at the Breslin Center today.

The matchup between the Spartans (12-5, 4-2 Big Ten) and Boilermakers (16-1, 5-1 Big Ten) is set for a 2:30 pm ET tip, and it will be televised by FOX.

With a Michigan State win, there would be a three-way tie between themselves and Purdue for first, with Rutgers (12-5, 4-2 Big Ten) a half-game behind.

Who will take the win in East Lansing? Read on for our Purdue vs Michigan State prediction, as well as our picks for the top matchup on today’s college basketball schedule.

Purdue vs Michigan State Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Monday, January 16, 2023, at 6:17 am ET. This article may also include odds from our recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Purdue -3.5 (-118)
• Michigan State +3.5 (-104)

Over/Under

• Over 133.5 (-110)
• Under 133.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Purdue -182
• Michigan State +150

Will Michigan State Punish Purdue from the Perimeter?

On Friday, Michigan State saw a seven-game win streak come to an end with a 75-66 loss at Illinois.

The game got away from the Spartans in the first half, as they went into the locker room trailing by 13 and were unable to rally in the second half.

Michigan State isn’t a team that is built to score 75 points game in, game out, but had they made even a few outside shots, things could have been a bit different.

Instead, for the first time since a loss to Michigan on March 4, 2021, the Spartans failed to make a single three, as they missed all seven of their perimeter attempts.

Given that the Spartans are shooting 37.0% from three this season–fourth in the Big Ten and 60th nationally–we should expect to see some shooting success against Purdue.

Michigan State’s top two scorers, Tyson Walker (13.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.9 APG) and Joey Hauser (13.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.2 APG), both shoot 40% from three, with Hauser shooting 40.3% (31 of 77) and Walker shooting an even 40% (28 of 70).

They don’t take a lot of threes, averaging just 6.9 made threes per game, which is tied for ninth in the Big Ten.

But if they can even connect on their season average, it bodes well for their chances to pull off the upset.

The Spartans have made seven or more threes 11 times in 17 games this season, and they are 10-1 in those games, with the lone loss their home loss to Northwestern last month. In that 70-63 loss, they made eight threes, but after making 5 of 9 in a 37-point first half, they were only 3 of 13 in a 26-point second half.

Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction and Picks

Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction: Michigan State 68, Purdue 65

Purdue vs Michigan State Picks: Michigan State +3.5 (Best Value: BetOnline) & Purdue team total under 68.5 (BetUS*)

*If only one of our recommended sportsbooks is listed without a “Best Value” designation, that means it is the only book that has a particular bet available at the time of writing.

Defense has been key in helping the Spartans get their season back on track after a 5-4 start, and if they can make some shots from outside, take care of the basketball, and come to play defensively, I like their chances.

It’s obviously easier said than done against one of the best teams in college basketball, but that’s exactly what Rutgers did in their win at Purdue earlier this month.

They made 42.9% (6 of 14) of their threes, committed only ten turnovers, and held Purdue to 39.6% (19 of 48) shooting from the field and 30.4% (7 of 23) from three.

Here’s what Michigan State did defensively in their seven-game win streak:

• Points Allowed Per Game: 57.7
• FG%: 38.6% (154 of 399)
• 3PT%: 25.9% (38 of 147)

Even though they gave up 75 points against Illinois, they weren’t awful defensively, but Dain Dainja (8 of 12 FG, 20 points) and Max Mayer (7 of 12 FG, 3 of 6 3PT, 19 points) had big games for the Illini.

Outside of that duo, the rest of the team was 3 of 12 (25%) from three and 12 of 36 (33.3%) overall, with Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois’ leading scorer, going only 1 of 5 from three and 5 of 13 overall from the field.

If the Spartans play to the level that they have largely played recently, I feel confident that they will upset Purdue.