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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets | November 30, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Saturday’s college basketball action features two intriguing matchups for team total unders. Chicago State’s struggling offense faces a tough test against Wisconsin’s lockdown defense, while Monmouth’s uptempo style clashes with Seton Hall’s methodical pace and elite defensive efficiency. Here’s a closer look at both games and why the unders stand out.
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Chicago State vs Wisconsin
Can Wisconsin hold Chicago State to under 60 points?
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Kicking off the college basketball slate with a team total under in the Chicago State vs. Wisconsin matchup in Madison. Two very different teams are squaring off: one aiming to break into the top 25, the other just trying to get its points-per-game average above 60. Not sure which is which? Let’s break it down.
Struggling Cougars
The Chicago State Cougars are, quite frankly, one of the worst teams in Division I men’s basketball. Ranked as low as 361st on advanced analytics sites, they’re 0-8 this season and barely competitive against teams ranked in the mid-200s. They’ve only surpassed 62 points three times and hit 70 points twice. That’s why their team total under jumps off the page. KenPom ranks their offense as the fourth worst in the country, with issues across the board: free throw percentage (308th), two-point percentage (third worst), turnovers (283rd), and rebounding (fourth worst).
Badgers’ Defense
On Saturday morning, they’ll face a Wisconsin Badgers team built on defense. This is the worst team Wisconsin will have played all season. Their previous weakest opponent, Holy Cross, managed just 61 points in the season opener. For context, Holy Cross’s offense is ranked 142 spots higher than Chicago State’s, which speaks volumes about how bad the Cougars are offensively.
The Play
Wisconsin, already tested against three top-100 teams, should have no problem shutting Chicago State down. The advanced analytics consensus projects the Cougars to finish with around 57 points. As of now, the team total prop hasn’t been posted, but anything above 57 is a green light. I’d play it down to 55, but anything lower than that is a pass.
Bet: Chicago State Team Total Under
BetOnline
Monmouth vs Seton Hall
Will Seton Hall’s low scoring matchups continue against Monmouth?
Monmouth vs Seton Hall odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
Another matchup with a juicy team total under is the Monmouth vs. Seton Hall game. I’ve been watching Seton Hall games closely for under opportunities, and today, Monmouth’s team total is the one to target.
Pirates’ Exceptional Defense
Despite the Hawks’ quicker tempo, ranked 136th nationally, they’re about to hit a brick wall. Seton Hall’s defense will control the pace, as the Pirates rank as the sixth slowest team in the country. Their defense is elite across the board: rebounding (50th), forcing turnovers (50th), defending the three (19th), locking down the interior (73rd), and blocking shots (77th), per Bart Torvik. Seton Hall has held opponents under 60 points in four of their seven games, with two of those games seeing opponents fail to reach 40 points.
Hawks Weaknesses
Monmouth has faced three teams ranked inside the top 100 and averaged 68 points in those matchups. But don’t be misled—this will be the best defense and slowest-paced team they’ve faced. Even Michigan State, known for its defense, plays at a tempo 135 spots faster than Seton Hall. To put it simply: the Pirates play at a pace so slow it would put your grandfather to sleep faster than The Masters. The other two top-100 teams Monmouth faced also played at significantly faster tempos.
Offensively, Monmouth is primed to struggle. They rank 11th worst in two-point percentage, rarely shoot threes (268th in three-point rate), and when they try, they’ll face one of the best perimeter defenses in the country. On the inside, they’ve been consistently shut down, ranking 295th in block percentage allowed.
The Play
As with the Chicago State game, this number hasn’t been posted at the time of writing. Advanced analytics project Monmouth’s team total around 56 points. Anything above 57 is a must-bet. I’d take it as low as 55, but anything below that is a no-go.
Bet: Monmouth Team Total Under
BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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