Texas State vs James Madison Basketball Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Dukes Dominate to Reach the Sun Belt Title Game?

This season, James Madison has 29 wins, including a season-opening victory at Michigan State. But with an at-large bid likely out of reach, the Dukes need to win the Sun Belt’s automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. With a semifinal win tonight over #11 seed Texas State, JMU will be one win closer to that goal.

Will the Bobcats, who are seeking their first NCAA Tournament trip since 1997, pull another upset after taking out #6 Southern Miss and #3 Troy? Or will the second-seeded Dukes advance to face either #1 seed Appalachian State or #4 Arkansas State for the title tomorrow night? Read on for our Texas State vs James Madison prediction and best bets.

Texas State vs James Madison Game Information

• Matchup: Texas State vs James Madison
• Date: Sunday, March 10, 2024
• Time: 8:30 pm ET
• Broadcast: ESPN+

The win over Michigan State remains a nice feather in JMU’s cap, and 29 wins is already five more than they have ever had in a season in Division I (24, 1981-82 season).

But with no other notable wins to their name, as well as a second-place finish in the Sun Belt behind a team that swept them in the regular season, the Dukes are almost certainly NIT-bound if they don’t win tonight and tomorrow.

While it’s been a banner year for James Madison, Texas State struggled through much of the regular season. At one point, they were 7-14 overall and 1-8 in Sun Belt play.

But they won their last three regular season games and have beaten #14 Old Dominion, #6 Southern Miss, and #3 Troy to reach the tournament semifinals for the second straight season.

Texas State vs James Madison Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Texas State +12 (-107)
• James Madison -12 (-113)

Over/Under

• Over 138 (-112)
• Under 138 (-108)

Moneyline

• Texas State +580
• James Madison -800

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks for tonight’s schedule? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of today’s top games.

Texas State vs James Madison Prediction and Best Bets

Texas State vs James Madison Betting Analysis and Prediction

When the two teams met to open conference play on December 30, James Madison, then undefeated and ranked 20^th at the time, won 82-65 at home.

In that win, the Dukes covered the spread as a 12-point favorite. For the season, they are 16-0 SU and 9-7 ATS when favored by double digits.

The Bobcats, on the other hand, are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season. The other three opponents were Oklahoma, Texas (covered as a 19.5-point underdog in an 77-58 loss), and Houston, so those numbers aren’t at all surprising.

The overall numbers look much better. Texas State is 7-9 SU and 6-8 ATS as an underdog this season, and they have covered and won outright in their last four games as an underdog. The Bobcats also handed Appalachian State one of their two conference losses, defeating the Mountaineers 63-56 in San Marcos on February 7.

Texas State is averaging just 69.9 PPG for the season, but the Bobcats have scored 73+ points in each of their last five games and shot 55.6% from the field and 50.0% from three in yesterday’s 74-68 win over Troy.

But the only way they will be able to beat James Madison, who is one of the highest scoring teams in the country (84.5 PPG) is by clamping down defensively. Texas State is 2-15 SU and 4-13 ATS this season when allowing 70+ points, though it is worth noting that the two wins are during their current six-game win streak.

I like the run that Texas State is on, but as well as James Madison has played over the course of the season, I don’t think that tonight is going to be the night where their NCAA Tournament dreams end. Tomorrow night might be, but tonight won’t.

Prediction: James Madison to win and cover

Texas State vs James Madison Best Bets

James Madison -12 (-113 at BetOnline) & James Madison team total over 75.5 (-105 at Bovada)

JMU has been held to fewer than 76 points just six times this season, and they have scored 76+ points in seven straight games since being held to 73 in a win over Akron (who finished second in the Mid-American Conference) on February 10.

Other NCAA Basketball Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NCAA Basketball?

Throughout the college basketball season, you can find NCAA basketball odds at the top online sports betting sites. That includes prominent names like BetDSI, BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada.

Along with game odds, many sportsbooks offer men’s and women’s March Madness futures odds, Final Four odds, Wooden Award odds, and more.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Our reviews analyze available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos offered.

• BetDSI Sportsbook Review
• BetOnline Sportsbook Review
• BetUS Sportsbook Review
• Bovada Sportsbook Review
• MyBookie Sportsbook Review

Interested in Learning More About Betting on NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on the action from the Mountain West to the MAAC and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, check out our March Madness guide, and learn valuable March Madness betting tips, where you can find the best March Madness bracket challenges, who the Final Four favorites are, and much more.

• March Madness Guide

Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more daily NCAA basketball betting insight from myself and the rest of our team.

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Will James Madison be in the field for the $200,000 Bracket Madness contest at BetOnline? Selection Sunday and the start of the contest aren’t until Sunday, March 17, but the contest is now open for entry fees. In the meantime, you can take advantage of their 100% cryptocurrency welcome bonus and build your bankroll for March Madness.