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Tulane vs North Texas Odds & Predictions | January 6, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
ncaab
The weekend is finally here, and after a rough week of betting, this immaculate slate should get us back into positive territory.
In this massive slate only one game stood out and it had to be written about. A game only true college basketball degenerates could get behind.
?Confirmed ICE COLD ? https://t.co/xBVnJSO9dp
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) January 6, 2024
Tulane vs North Texas Betting Odds
Picks in this piece are courtesy of Bovada. At Bovada, you can get great odds on all of the top college basketball matchups every day.
Spread
Tulane: (+4.5) (-105)
North Texas: (-4.5) (-115)
Total
Over: 144.5 (-110)
Under: 144.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Tulane: +165
North Texas: -195
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Write Up Transparency
Let’s check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.
- 3-5 (37.5%)
- -2.00 Units
(As of January 5, 2024)
Tulane vs North Texas Prediction and Picks
North Texas’ leading scorer, Jason Edwards pointing to teammate
Pull up a chair because this may be one of the better games of the day, as these two teams look to stay undefeated in conference play.
Coming into Saturday’s matchup, both Tulane and North Texas are coming off double-digit victories over conference foes. Two completely different teams clashing. Tulane, is more of a run-and-gun type of team, while North Texas likes to keep it slow and play lockdown defense.
Entering this game Tulane has not truly been tested, ranked 291st in schedule strength, according to Haslametrics. They have only played two top-100 schools this season (George Mason & Miss State). The Green Waves have played six schools ranked 235+ and three of them were ranked 310+. Their most impressive win came against Cal back in November, where they won by three as 5.5-point favorites.
On the other hand, North Texas has the 80th-ranked strength in schedule, playing 4 teams in the top 100. They are one of the slowest teams in the country (3rd slowest), while having one of the best defenses. Holding opponents to 60.2 points per game (4th), but at home, opponents are averaging 58 points per contest. If you are a fan of lockdown defense this squad should have a soft spot in your heart.
I won’t waste any more of your time, here is the stank.
The Stank
Friday morning, my dear friend, Erik Haslam tweeted out a list of teams that have better performances vs stronger opponents and weaker opponents. The Green Waves landed inside the better performances vs weaker opponents category. Their average opponent’s rank is 202.45, no wonder their record looks so impressive.
A glimpse at our behind-the-scenes Paper Tiger Factor (PTF), which evalulates past performances this college hoops season to determine which teams have performed better vs. stronger opponents and which teams have performed better vs. weaker opponents. pic.twitter.com/boyuUE4F1T
— Erik Haslam (@haslametrics) January 5, 2024
North Texas at home this season has been fantastic offensively, 11th in adjusted efficiency in four games vs D1 opponents (6 total home games). Their three-point shooting has been exceptional shooting the rock 44.6% from deep. That is while being heavily reliant on the deep ball, North Texas has a 3-point rate of 39.7%. Meanwhile, Tulane is god-awful at defending the three. In four road/neutral site games this season the Green Waves are 299th in 3-pt percentage defense. On top of that they are 340th in defensive adjusted efficiency in road/neutral matchups.
Tulane has a solid offense, averaging 88.9 points per game (5th). However, if North Texas can control the pace and play superb lockdown defense, it should be a shock to the Green Waves’ system.
Prediction: North Texas wins and covers
Concerns: Tulane is actually legit and their stats hold true. However, if that is my only worry, I have to trust my process and ride it out. The line did open at a weird number, which had me worried, but since it dropped I feel better where it is now. (The line opened at North Texas (-7.5))
The Pick: North Texas (-4.5) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
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Where to find more advanced analytics
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball the ones I have mentioned above are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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