UNC vs Virginia Basketball Prediction and Picks (2023 ACC Tournament Quarterfinal)

It has been an extremely disappointing season in Chapel Hill, but UNC can set themselves up for a chance at another March Madness run by downing Virginia tonight in the ACC Tournament quarters (7:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The seventh-seeded Tar Heels (20-12, 11-9 ACC) opened their stay in Greensboro with a resounding 85-61 win over Boston College last night, setting up a meeting with the second-seeded Cavaliers (23-6, 15-5 ACC).

As of this morning, UNC is the third team out in ESPN’s latest Bracketology update, while they are the second team out in the latest update by CBS Sports.

Will the Tar Heels take a big step towards safety, or will their March Madness hopes be dashed? Read on for our UNC vs Virginia basketball prediction and picks.

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UNC vs Virginia Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 9, 2023.

Spread

• North Carolina +2.5 (-115)
• Virginia -2.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 128.5 (-110)
• Under 128.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• North Carolina +112
• Virginia -134

UNC Seeks Second Win Over Virginia in Three Weeks

A victory over Virginia might not cement their place in the field of 68, but with either #3 Clemson or #6 NC State waiting in the semis, things would be on a very favorable path with a win tonight.

That they even have a chance at this point is down to a 71-63 win over Virginia in Chapel Hill on February 25. That win is UNC’s only Quad 1 win to date.

The Tar Heels haven’t given up fewer than 65 points on a regular basis this season, but when they do, it has typically worked out well.

In the 11 games in which North Carolina has given up fewer than 65 points, they are 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS. Both of the straight-up losses are at the hands of Duke, who beat the 63-57 in Durham and 62-57 in Chapel Hill.

Improvement on defense will be key tonight for Virginia, as UNC shot 46.8% from the field and made 10 of 22 (45.5%) from three. When the Cavaliers have given up 60 or more points, they are 5-9-1 ATS.

If the Tar Heels are able to get the win tonight in Greensboro, it will be their first win as an underdog this season. In five previous instances, they are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS, including a 65-58 loss at Virginia as a 4.5-point underdog on January 10.

UNC vs Virginia Prediction and Picks

North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction: UNC to win

North Carolina vs Virginia Picks: UNC ML (Best Value: BetMGM) & UNC team total over 63.5 (Best Value: Bovada Sportsbook)

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