VCU vs Dayton Basketball Prediction & Picks: Holmes, Flyers look to make it eight straight

First place in the Atlantic 10 is on the line tonight as VCU (12-5, 3-1 A-10) visits Dayton (12-5, 4-0 A-10).

Tonight’s matchup from UD Arena is set for a 9:00 pm ET tip, and it will be televised by ESPN2.

The Flyers are all alone in first place in the conference and have won seven straight games since being blown out by Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on December 7.

VCU, meanwhile, has won seven of eight, with the lone blemish a 79-70 loss at Duquesne nine days ago. Since that loss, the Rams have registered a 17-point home win over Davidson and a 15-point win at Loyola.

Entering tonight, the Rams are tied with Saint Louis and Richmond for the second-best record in the A10. Will they end tonight tied with the Flyers for the conference’s best record? Read on for our VCU vs Dayton basketball prediction and picks.

VCU vs Dayton Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, January 13, 2023, at 6:45 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• VCU +7.5 (-114)
• Dayton +7.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 129.5 (-110)
• Under 129.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• VCU +245
• Dayton -310

Will VCU End Dayton’s A-10 Dominance?

Even though the Rams come into tonight’s game with three double-digit wins in conference play and their 7-1 hot streak, the Flyers are firm favorites to take care of business at home.

That’s for good reason, too.

Thus far in A-10 play, no one has played Dayton close.

• 69-57 W vs Duquesne
• 69-55 win at Davidson
• 76-56 win vs St. Joseph’s
• 82-58 win at Fordham

For the season, the Flyers are averaging just 68.5 points per game, which is 264th in Division I.

But the Flyers have scored 70+ points in eight of their 12 wins and 69, 69, 66, and 60 in the other four wins.

And they shot the ball really well in their last two games, shooting 50% (10 of 20) from three and 57.1% (28 of 49) from the field in their win over St. Joe’s and 42.9% (6 of 14) from three and 64.4% (29 of 45) from the field in the win at Fordham.

The offensive success raises Dayton’s potential to be a dominant team, both against VCU and the rest of the conference, given how good they are defensively.

The Flyers, who 17th in Division I in defensive efficiency, are one of the nation’s best teams in that department.

They rank ninth in points allowed per game (58.4 PPG), fourth in field-goal percentage (37.0%), and third in three-point percentage (26.8). Opponents are even struggling from the free-throw line against the Flyers, making just 65.7%, which is 23rd in the country.

They will certainly have a challenge on their hands tonight, with VCU also coming in hot offensively.

In their 89-72 win over Davidson, VCU was lights out, shooting 58.2% (32 of 55) from the field and 62.5% (15 of 24) from three. And in the win at Loyola, the Rams shot 57.1% (24 of 42) from the field, and they made four of their eight three-point attempts.

VCU vs Dayton Prediction and Picks

Virginia Commonwealth vs Dayton Prediction: Dayton to win

Virginia Commonwealth vs Dayton Picks: Dayton team total over 68.5 (Best Value: BetOnline) & Daron Holmes II over 19.5 points (BetOnline)

I think VCU can challenge Dayton more than the Flyers got from Duquesne, Davidson, St. Joseph’s, and Fordham.

Still, I expect the home to come out top tonight, and I think they will pull away from VCU in the end.

And once again, the Flyers will be led by big man Daron Holmes II, who has been an absolute beast in his team’s win streak.

Over the last seven games, Holmes is averaging 25.7 points per game, 9.4 rebounds per game, and two blocks per game.

The 6’10” sophomore has made 71% (71 of 100) of his shots from the field and 73.5% (36 of 49) of his free throws, which is a notable number for a guy who shot 58.6% from the stripe as a freshman.

Look for another monster night from Holmes and another impressive win for Dayton tonight.