Xavier vs Cincinnati Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Musketeers extend recent Crosstown Shootout dominance?

One of the best rivalries in college basketball resumes this afternoon as the Xavier Musketeers and Cincinnati Bearcats will meet in this year’s edition of the Crosstown Shootout.

The Musketeers have dominated the rivalry in recent years, winning three in a row and seven of nine. In their last visit to Fifth Third Arena, they defeated the Bearcats 77-69 two seasons ago.

Last year, Xavier defeated Cincinnati 83-63 at the Cintas Center, which was just their fourth 20-point win out of their 38 wins in the rivalry.

Who will come out on top in the 90th meeting between these two proud programs? Read on for our Xavier vs Cincinnati prediction, along with which bets we love for the game.

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Xavier Musketeers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Xavier Musketeers (6-3) vs Cincinnati Bearcats (6-3)
• Venue & Location: Fifth Third Arena (Cincinnati, Ohio)
• Date: Saturday, December 10, 2022
• Game Time: 3:00 pm ET
• How to Watch Xavier vs Cincinnati: ESPN2

Xavier vs Cincinnati Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, December 10, 2022, at 9:40 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Xavier -4.5 (-104)
• Cincinnati +4.5 (-118)

Over/Under

• Over 150.5 (-110)
• Under 150.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Xavier -172
• Cincinnati +142

Should We Expect an Uncharacteristically High-Scoring Contest?

There have not been many high-scoring games in this rivalry in recent years, but we could be in for one this year.

Out of the last 23 meetings between the Bearcats and Musketeers, 150+ total points have been scored just three times:

• December 13, 2009: Musketeers 83, Bearcats 79 (OT)
• January 26, 2017: Bearcats 86, Musketeers 78
• December 2, 2017: Musketeers 89, Bearcats 76

In Sean Miller’s first go-round as Xavier’s head coach, the totals in the five games he coached in were 119, 144, 122, 123, and 142.

But the new Sean Miller, after a season out of coaching following his dismissal from Arizona in April 2021, has embraced a different style than the one that previously both brought him a lot of success and limited the heights of that success.

Through nine games, Xavier is averaging 84.0 points per game, which ranks 18th in the country. The Musketeers are the only team in the top ten in the country in field goal percentage (51.6%) and three-point field goal percentage (43.0%), and they are just one of five teams shooting 50 percent or better overall and 40 percent or better from three.

Last Saturday’s 84-74 win over West Virginia was the sixth time this season that the Musketeers have hit the 80-point mark, and they scored 78 and 79 points in two of the games in which they fell short of the 80-point mark.

While Cincinnati isn’t soaring at quite those heights, the Bearcats are averaging 79.4 PPG. After scoring 80+ points four times in 33 games last season, they have hit the 80-point mark six times already, including each of their last three games.

To further compare, last season’s team averaged just 69.4 PPG, and no team has averaged 75 or more PPG since Mick Cronin’s 2017-18 team, which won 31 games and swept the AAC regular season and tournament titles.

Both teams have benefitted in a big way from a transfer addition playing at their third school.

For Xavier, Souley Boum, formerly of San Francisco and UTEP, leads the way in scoring (16.6 PPG) and is shooting 53.8 percent from the field, 51.6 percent from three, and 87 percent from the free-throw line.

For Cincinnati, it’s Landers Nolley II, who joined the program this season after stops at Virginia Tech and Memphis. Nolley is the team’s second-leading scorer at 15.3 PPG, and he is shooting 49 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from three.

Xavier vs Cincinnati Prediction and Picks

Xavier vs Cincinnati Prediction: Xavier to win

Xavier vs Cincinnati Picks: Xavier/Cincinnati over & Xavier to cover

With the offensive leaps that have been made by each program, it would be a shame if we don’t see that on display in this matchup.

Fortunately, I think that we will, and I have no qualms jumping on the over even with how rare this level of scoring is seen when Xavier and Cincinnati meet.

And while the game is in the Bearcats’ home venue, I also feel rather confident in the Musketeers coming away with the win.

Xavier has played the tougher schedule, and in addition to their win over West Virginia (#25 at KenPom) and Florida (#53), they were competitive and could have won any or even all of the games that they lost to Indiana (#10), Duke (#13), and Gonzaga (#9).

Cincinnati’s best win so far came in their last game, a 97-71 win over Bryant (#169). When they faced Arizona (#18) in Maui, they scored 93 points but gave up 101 to the Wildcats, and the next day they were blown away by 28 by Ohio State (#21), getting outscored by double digits in both halves.

I don’t think that it will necessarily be a runaway win for the Musketeers, but I feel confident in backing a fourth straight win over the Bearcats, and so should you.

Where can you find the best value for the above picks? You can take your pick with the over, as the total is 150.5 across the board at our recommended sportsbooks. I’m happy to back the over even up to 152 or 153, so 150.5 is perfect.

As for the spread, there has been some real movement in Xavier’s favor early this morning, but you can grab the Musketeers at -3.5 at BetMGM, while it is -4 or -4.5 elsewhere.

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