Xavier vs Creighton Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Musketeers score another big road win?

After successfully crossing off the first of a pivotal three-game stretch, #13 Xavier will look to cross off the second this afternoon as they visit surging Creighton (12:15 pm ET/11:15 am CT, CBS).

The Musketeers (17-4, 9-1 Big East) are coming off of an 82-79 win at UConn on Wednesday, which allowed them to maintain their lead over #16 Marquette (16-5, 8-2 Big East) and #23 Providence (16-5, 8-2 Big East) atop the conference standings.

In fourth sits Creighton (12-8, 6-3 Big East), who has won three straight games since a 90-87 loss at the Cintas Center when these two teams met in Cincinnati on January 11.

Will the Musketeers be able to pick up the regular season sweep over the Bluejays? Read on for our Xavier vs Creighton prediction, as well as our picks for this afternoon’s matchup at the CHI Health Center in Omaha.

Xavier vs Creighton Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, January 28, 2023, at 7:40 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Xavier +5.5 (-110)
• Creighton -5.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 158.5 (-106)
• Under 158.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• Xavier +190
• Creighton -235

Will Xavier and Creighton Pile Up the Points Again?

When the Musketeers hosted the Bluejays earlier this month, both teams were sharp offensively.

In their win, Xavier shot 50% (34 of 68) from the field and hit 8 of 19 (42.1%) shots from outside, with Souley Boum (26 points, five rebounds, eight assists) and Colby Jones (20 points, four rebounds, three assists) leading the way.

Creighton, meanwhile, also shot 50% (32 of 64) from the field and made 10 of 23 (43.5%) from three. All five starters scored in double figures for the Bluejays, led by Baylor Scheierman’s season-high 25.

It wasn’t enough for the visitors to pull out the win in Cincinnati, but it was the first time the Bluejays had scored 85+ points since a 90-87 win over Arkansas in the Maui Invitational semis in November.

It was also their best offensive output in Big East play until Wednesday, when they throttled St. John’s 104-76.

Just like in the loss to Xavier, all five Creighton starters scored in double figures against the Red Storm, the team shot over 50% from the field (38 of 67, 56.7%), and they made 10+ threes (11 of 30, 36.7%).

They are likely going to have to keep things rolling to pick up a fourth straight win, considering that Xavier has been held below 78 points only three times this season: a 71-64 loss to Duke, a 73-70 win over Seton Hall, and their recent 73-72 loss at DePaul.

Offensive Statistics and Metrics for Xavier

• PPG: 84.0 (8th in Division I)
• FG%: 50.3% (5th in D-I)
• 3PT%: 40.3% (2nd in D-I)
• 2PT%: 54.5% (38th in D-I in D-I games only)
• FT%: 72.9% (128th in D-I)
• Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): 5th

It’s still somewhat mind-blowing that a Sean Miller-coached team is doing what the Musketeers are doing this season, but he used his year off from coaching to recalibrate things in a major way.

As a result, he has a team with the potential to reach the Final Four, which would be a first for both Miller and the program.

Wednesday’s game at UConn seemed like the perfect spot for the Huskies to get hot and for the Musketeers to trip.

But Xavier punched first and punched hardest, scoring the game’s first points 36 seconds into the game.

From there, UConn didn’t even tie the game at any point, and after leading by 15 at halftime and by as many as 17 in the second half, the Musketeers withstood the Huskies’ rally to close out a huge win.

It was the first time this season that anyone had made 10 threes against the Huskies, the first time this season anyone had shot 50% or better against the Huskies from three, and their 53.4% shooting percentage from the field was the second highest against UConn, eclipsed only by the 53.8% they shot in their 83-73 win in the teams’ first meeting on New Year’s Eve.

Sure, UConn is in a rough run right now, but Xavier took the biggest shot the Huskies could give them right now and left Storrs with a win. They’re not going to be overawed in Omaha.

Xavier vs Creighton Prediction and Picks

Xavier vs Creighton Prediction: Xavier to win

Xavier vs Creighton Picks: Xavier +5.5 (Best Value: BetOnline/Bovada Sportsbook/BetUS) & Xavier/Creighton over 157.5 (Best Value: BetMGM)

These teams have a similar profile offensively. All five starters on both teams average 10+ PPG, and all five starters on both teams have at least one 20-point game this season.

And both teams can shoot the three really well, though the Musketeers have been far more consistent in that department.

I am a big believer in the potential that both teams have for a deep March Madness run, but when it comes to betting on this game, I am a bigger believer in Xavier. Even if Creighton pulls out the win, the Bluejays aren’t going to run away with it.