Xavier vs Georgetown Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Musketeers maul the Hoyas to open Big East play?

Fresh off of the news that coach Sean Miller will not receive any NCAA sanctions, the Xavier Musketeers (8-3) will open Big East play tonight at struggling Georgetown (5-6). Tonight’s game is scheduled to tip off at 6:30 pm ET, and it will be televised on FS1.

Sanctions related to Miller’s time at Arizona could have affected the Musketeers’ positive start, but with that now in the rearview, Xavier can focus on locking down the program’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2018.

While the outlook is promising for Xavier, whose three losses are to Indiana by two, Duke by seven, and Gonzaga by four, the same can’t be said for Georgetown.

NBA legend Patrick Ewing got another season to turn things around after going winless in Big East play last season, but after posting a losing record in non-conference play, it looks like some hard decisions will have to be made at the end of this season, if not sooner.

The odds for tonight’s matchup are as good an indicator of where the Hoyas are at present, as the Musketeers are favored by double digits on the road. Will we at least see a competitive game? Read on for our Xavier vs Georgetown prediction, as well as our Musketeers vs Hoyas picks.

Xavier Musketeers vs Georgetown Hoyas Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, December 16, 2022, at 8:00 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Xavier -10.5 (-114)
• Georgetown +10.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 156.5 (-108)
• Under 156.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Xavier -630
• Georgetown +450

Hoyas Unlikely to Provide Much Resistance in Comfortable Xavier Win

Based on what I have seen from Georgetown against decent competition, I don’t envision them sniffing the upset tonight.

Their non-conference schedule featured four games against power conference opposition, and they lost all four games. They lost to Northwestern, Texas Tech, and Syracuse all by double digits, and they blew a double-digit halftime lead in an overtime loss to South Carolina, who is an unimpressive 5-5 thus far under new coach Lamont Paris.

All four of those teams scored above their season averages against Georgetown as well, as did Loyola Marymount and American University, the other two teams that defeated the Hoyas:

• Northwestern (won 75-63): 10.6 points above season average of 64.4 PPG
• Loyola Marymount (won 84-66): 7.3 points above season average of 76.7 PPG
• American University (won 74-70): 5.1 points above season average of 68.9 PPG
• Texas Tech (won 79-65): 6.0 points above season average of 73.0 PPG
• South Carolina (won 74-71 in OT): 9.2 points above season average of 64.8 PPG (scored 65 in regulation)
• Syracuse (won 83-64): 8.5 points above season average of 74.5 PPG

Notably, the Hoyas scored below their season average (73.9 PPG) in all six of their losses.

All of this is rather ominous for a matchup against Xavier, who is one of the best offensive teams in the country.

Offensive Statistics and Rankings for Xavier

• PPG: 83.2 (19th in the country)
• FG%: 50.7% (6th)
• 3PT%: 40.8% (8th)
• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (at KenPom): 11th
• 2PT%: 55.1% (42nd)

The Musketeers are 29th in the country in adjusted tempo and 19th in average offensive possession length, so the Hoyas are going to be under a lot of pressure defensively from the tip.

Xavier vs Georgetown Prediction and Picks

Musketeers vs Hoyas Prediction: Xavier to win

Musketeers vs Hoyas Picks: Xavier to cover, Souley Boum over 15.5 points & Zach Freemantle over 11.5 points

I typically stay far, far away from double-digit spreads, especially for road favorites, regardless of the sport or the level.

But for Georgetown to keep it close against Xavier, they will have to put forth a performance that hasn’t been seen yet this season.

The Musketeers may well give up some points, but they simply have too many offensive threats and are too sound of a team on that end for the Hoyas to be able to keep up.

Among our recommended sportsbooks, BetOnline has a more favorable spread than any of our other recommended sportsbooks, but I’m happy to back the spread out to -11.5.

If you’re looking for some additional Xavier vs Georgetown betting action, Bovada Sportsbook is offering player props on the matchup. For me, the two props listed above are the two that stick out the most.

Boum, the team’s leading scorer at 17.0 PPG, has scored at least 16 points in six games, including each of his last three (23 vs West Virginia, 21 vs Cincinnati, and 17 vs Southern in just 27 minutes).

Freemantle, who is the team’s leading rebounder (7.5 RPG) and fourth-leading scorer (13.3 PPG), has scored at least 14 points in nine of Xavier’s 11 games this season.

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