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College Football Surprise Teams for the 2022 Season: Which Non-Power 5 Schools Can Crack the Top 25?
Written by: Nicholas Plowfield
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Every season there are a few schools that surprise the college football world and go on. surprise runs. Last season, the biggest surprise was the run that Cincinnati went on. They made the College Football Playoff as the first non-Power 5 school to do so.
In 2022, many teams have changed conferences, especially down in the lower ranked groupings. The Sun Belt, American Athletic Conference, Mountain West and Independents all have teams with enough talent to be considered for the Top 25 within the FBS.
We will take a look at some of the teams to keep an eye on if you are looking for some extra bets to cash in on. The Over/Under win total, 10+ Wins, and Conference winners all offer extra value for teams that may not be competing for the Championship at the end of the season.
2022 College Football Surprise Teams to Watch
Louisiana Lafayette
Lafayette had an incredible year in 2021. They finished ranked 16th in. the country, and they won the Sun Belt Conference Championship. Their schedule looks favorable in 2022, so winning a lot of games will be a breeze.
Louisiana Lafayette Over/Under Win Total for 2022
- Over 8.5: -135
- Under 8.5: +115
They are expected to do well within the conference, but they are not the favorites in the lines. Appalachian State holds that honor, but with the results of last season’s Championship Game, Louisiana looks like the better pick.
The good news for bettors is that Louisiana doesn’t play many tough games at the beginning of the season. Their toughest game against Florida State doesn’t come until their second-to-last game of the season.
Lafayette should be rested and in good shape throughout the start of the season, as they face Southeast Louisiana (FCS), Eastern Michigan, and Rice in the first three weeks. Their road tests are fairly tame, so look for a second consecutive 10+ win season for the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Houston
Houston made a great run last season, but ultimately fell short against Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game. They are one of the favorites in the AAC Conference this season, and they already have a spot in the Top 25. However, what is their ceiling?
Houston Over/Under Win Total for 2022
- Over 9.5: +115
- Under 9.5: -135
Houston Odds to Win 10+ Games in 2022
- 10+ Wins: +115
The Cougars do not have to face Cincinnati this season, so that should help their overall win total. They also avoid UCF and have a favorable start to the season with home games against Kansas, Rice, and Tulane.
The Cougars barely cracked the Top 25, but they snuck in at #24 in the pre-season polls due to their strong defense. They had the 26th ranked defense in the league last season, and they are returning a lot of their players from 2021.
As a team from the AAC, Houston very much resembles a Power 5 school. They will be making the move to the Big 12 soon, so expect them to go all out and win 10+ games in an effort to claim an AAC Title.
UTSA
The University of Texas San Antonio Roadrunners have a tougher schedule than they did last season, which gives them a great opportunity at catching the eye of the committee. They open the season against 24th ranked Houston, and they go on the road to Texas.
UTSA Over/Under Win Total for 2022
- Over 7.5: -165
- Under 7.5: +140
UTSA Odds to Win 10+ Games in 2022
- 10+ Wins: +450
UTSA went 12-2 last season and were ranked as high as 15th in the polls. For a team that had never won more than 8 games as a Division 1 school, it was a massive improvement and a big payout for those lucky bettors.
UTSA plays in Conference USA, which is at the bottom of the list as far as conferences that get committee attention. However, their good season has attracted the attention of better football schools who want to put them on the schedule.
They beat Illinois and Memphis last season in their two toughest games, and won their first conference championship in school history by beating Western Kentucky. There is a lot to look forward to in 2022, but seeing the Roadrunners back in the Top 25 would be the icing on the cake.
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- 2022 Sun Belt Football Predictions and Title Odds
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