Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams Betting Preview: Will Rams Rebound From Frustrating Finish and Best Boise?

A lot of college football teams have had interesting seasons, but Boise State and Colorado State have had two of the most interesting seasons out there.

When the Broncos have been good, they have been good. They handed 6-1 UTEP their only loss in a 54-13 blowout, shut down 5-1 Utah State on the road in a dominant 27-3 win, and upset BYU in Provo when the Cougars were 5-0 and ranked 10th. They might be the best 3-4 team in college football, but that doesn’t get you very far when it matters, does it?

Colorado State opened their season by being routed at home by FCS member South Dakota State and followed that up with a loss to Vanderbilt. But the Rams have turned it around since, and could have been 3-0 in the Mountain West were it not for inexplicably bad last-second execution last week at Utah State.

Instead of spiking it on first down and stopping the clock, Colorado State rushed their field goal unit onto the field.

With the clock running, they then missed the potential game-winning field goal. Utah State wins the game. pic.twitter.com/vw3sXclgDP

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 23, 2021

As tough as that ending was, the Rams are still in the hunt for a division title, and a win today over the Broncos will be a good way to wash away the bad taste from their loss to the Aggies. Will they hold the fort at home against the unpredictable Broncos?

Boise State Broncos (3-4, 1-2 Mountain West) vs Colorado State Rams (3-4, 2-1 Mountain West), CBS Sports Network, 7:00 p.m. ET

Boise State vs Colorado State College Football Betting Odds

Moneyline

• Boise State -132
• Colorado State +108

Total

• OVER 51.5 (-114)
• UNDER 51.5 (-106)

Spread

• Boise State -2.5 (-105)
• Colorado State +2.5 (-115)

Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams college football betting odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Saturday, October 30, 2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Boise State vs Colorado State Best Bet

Colorado State ML

Boise State has alternated losses and wins this season, so if things were to go according to form, the Broncos will win today.

But as tempting as it is to back Boise State in this matchup, I’m riding with the Rams here. This is a bad matchup for the Broncos, who are still trying to get it together under new coach Andy Avalos.

Trouble Brewing for Bachmeier and the Boise Offense?

Colorado State’s recovery from their 0-2 start has been fueled by strong defensive play, and that defense will lead the way in this matchup.

The Broncos’ ground game is a major weakness, averaging only 2.4 yards per carry and 84.4 yards per game. That puts them among the worst of the worst in college football in both categories. It will be a major surprise if they have any success in that area against the Rams. As awful as the Broncos are running the ball, the Rams are every bit as adept at stopping the run. Colorado State is sixth in the country in fewest yards allowed per carry (2.8).

So the Broncos will need Hank Bachmeier to be on his game today, and well, that is no guarantee either. Colorado State defenders love to feast on opposing quarterbacks, to the tune of 30 sacks this season. Scott Patchan, Mohamed Kamara, and Cam’Ron Carter all with five or more. It should come as no surprise then that the Rams rank in the top 30 in the country in completion percentage against (56.3 percent) and in yards allowed per attempt (6.5). Overall, Colorado State allows only 4.53 yards per play, which ranks in the top ten in major college football. That is a lot to contend with.

Can the Broncos Win the Turnover Battle?

Boise State’s best hope is to force turnovers. In their wins, they have forced 13 turnovers and have a turnover margin of +11. In their losses, they have forced four turnovers and have a turnover margin of -4. Colorado State’s Todd Centeio has only two interceptions in 214 attempts, and the Rams have only seven giveaways all season. Centeio is one of only seven quarterbacks at this level of college football with 200 or more passing attempts and two or fewer interceptions this season.

The Rams should also be able to control the clock against the Broncos. Boise State is statistically one of the worst teams in the country against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and almost 200 yards per game on the ground. Running back David Bailey, a Boston College transfer, tallied a season-high 159 yards on 30 carries against Utah State and also caught two passes for 39 yards.

That disastrous sequence against Utah State was not a great example of doing the small things well. But doing the small stuff well is why the Rams had won three of four before that loss. It is also why they are great value for the win in this matchup.

Is it a little dangerous to trust a Steve Addazio-coached team all that much? Perhaps. Is it also a little dangerous to bet against the Broncos, who have scored a trio of terrific wins? Perhaps. But this is a bad matchup for the Broncos in a number of areas all over the field. If the Rams exploit those advantages as they should, they will get the win. Back them straight up.

Boise State vs Colorado State College Football Score Prediction

Colorado State 31, Boise State 20