Boise State vs San Diego State Football Prediction, Odds & Picks: Will Defense Dominate This Mountain West Matchup?

After both experiencing some frustrations in non-conference play, Boise State and San Diego State will now turn their attention to the conference calendar and a matchup on Friday night (10:30 pm ET, CBS Sports Network) at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.

The Broncos (1-2) opened the season by being blown out at Washington and a final-second home loss to UCF, before getting into the win column for the first time this season last week with a 42-18 win over North Dakota.

On the other side, the Aztecs (2-2) started with wins over Ohio and Idaho State but head into their Mountain West opener with back-to-back losses, first to UCLA at home then to Oregon State in Corvallis.

The Broncos were the media’s preseason pick to win the Mountain West, while the Aztecs were selected fourth behind Boise State, Air Force, and Fresno State. So, Friday’s showdown in San Diego could be key to the outcome of the conference title race. Expect a hard-fought contest as a result.

Boise State vs San Diego State Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 6:30 pm ET Wednesday, September 20, 2023.

Spread

• Boise State -6.5 (-120)
• San Diego State +6.5 (+100)

Over/Under

• Over 46 (-105)
• Under 46 (-115)

Moneyline

• Boise State -260
• San Diego State +215

San Diego State’s Scoring Struggles Likely to Continue Against Boise State

If an offensive showcase is what you are hoping to see in this contest, you are almost certain to be disappointed.

Not only is this a matchup between a pair of programs that pride themselves on defensive proficiency, but neither team is exactly lighting the world on fire on the other side of the ball.

I expected San Diego State to have an uptick in offensive output with QB Jalen Mayden back and Ryan Lindely promoted to offensive coordinator. Instead, the Aztecs have managed just four offensive touchdowns in a dozen quarters against FBS opposition, and they are averaging just 301 yards of total offense against FBS opposition.

In their losses to UCLA (35-10) and Oregon State (26-9), San Diego State averaged less than two yards per rushing attempt, and Mayden was picked off four times in those two games after not throwing a pick against Ohio and Idaho State.

Boise State did move the ball some against Washington and UCF, but it didn’t translate on the scoreboard. Things went much better from that standpoint against North Dakota, but the challenge will be much stiffer on Friday.

The Broncos’ strength is running the ball, as QB Taylen Green (52.9% completion percentage) is still very much finding his feet as a passer.

That unit will be all the more equipped to take on the Aztecs if George Holani is able to play. Holani, who has run for 1,000 yards twice in his collegiate career, suffered a lower-body injury in the opener against Washington and hasn’t played since.

Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Boise State to win

Picks: Boise State/San Diego State under 46.5 (-115 at Bovada) & San Diego State team total under 19.5 points (-110 at Bovada)

Anything can happen, but the total for this game appears to be several points too high.

In Brady Hoke’s second stint as San Diego State head coach, 46 or more points have been scored in just a third of the Aztecs’ games (13 of 39).

On the other sideline, 46 or more points have been scored in 14 of 29 games (48.3%) in Andy Avalos’s tenure as head coach.

So, the percentages certainly favor the under, and that lines up well with what both teams have done (or not done) on offense.

I do give the edge to the Broncos, because I think they will be able to run the ball with some success against a defense that gave up 254 rushing yards to UCLA and 191 to Oregon State. But it will not be a pretty game, so I suggest perhaps just keep tracking of this one via play-by-play instead of tuning in.

Where to Bet on Boise State vs San Diego State

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

Along with Bovada, where the Boise State vs San Diego State odds in this article are from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting.

Below are some of the other books that we highly recommend:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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