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Bowling Green vs. Toledo Football Betting: Will the Rockets rout the Falcons after two tight wins?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Last Tuesday, Toledo clinched the MAC West Division title with two games to spare thanks to a tight win over Ball State. But even with the division already locked up, don’t expect the Rockets to rest on their laurels against Bowling Green this week or at Western Michigan next week.
After missing the win over Eastern Michigan due to injury, QB Dequan Finn returned last week against the Cardinals and helped lead Toledo to a 28-21 win over visiting Ball State.
Finn had a quiet night on the ground with ten yards on eight attempts, but he threw for a season-high 301 yards and had three touchdown tosses, including the game-winner to Jamal Turner with 1:18 remaining.
With a trip to Detroit next month secured, Toledo can now play a little spoiler. Bowling Green still has a chance in the MAC East, along with Buffalo (5-5, 4-2 MAC).
But the Falcons need to win at Toledo to go into next week’s finale at home against the Bobcats with a chance to snatch the division, depending on what Buffalo does in their remaining games against West Division foes Akron (1-9, 0-6 MAC) or Kent State (4-6, 3-3 MAC), both of which are at home.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets Matchup Information and Betting Odds
Matchup Information
- Matchup: Bowling Green Falcons (5-5, 4-2 MAC, 3rd in the MAC East) vs. Toledo Rockets (7-3, 5-1 MAC, 1st in the MAC West)
- Venue & Location: Glass Bowl (Toledo, Ohio)
- Date: Tuesday, November 15, 2022
- Game Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time
- How to Watch Bowling Green vs. Toledo: ESPNU
Bowling Green vs. Toledo Odds
Game odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, November 13, 2022, at 11:45 p.m. ET. Odds from our other recommended legal online sportsbooks may also appear in this article.
Spread
- Bowling Green +14.5 (-110)
- Toledo -14.5 (-110)
Over/Under
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Bowling Green +460
- Toledo -650
Are the Falcons Contenders or Pretenders?
With only a home loss to Buffalo in their first five MAC games, the Falcons went into their final three games with everything still to play for.
But instead of benefitting from Buffalo’s 31-27 loss at Central Michigan last Wednesday, the Falcons were blown out at home the same night by Kent State.
After allowing 40 points in their previous three games–wins over Miami (Ohio), Central Michigan, and Western Michigan–the Falcons allowed that many points to the Golden Flashes in a 40-6 loss.
It wasn’t as bad of a defensive showing as some of their performances earlier this season, but giving up 415 yards after allowing 189, 306, and 318 was a major step back.
And things would have been worse if Kent State had not missed a field goal, turned it over on downs at the Falcons’ 12, 28, and 27, and been intercepted when they had driven to Bowling Green’s 24.
Their bad night was compounded by the offense turning it over on downs five times, three giveaways, and a missed field goal.
Mind you, it’s not even as they had gone up against a defensive juggernaut. Entering the game, Kent State had allowed at least 24 points and 415 yards against each of their FBS opponents this season.
When the Falcons have not fared well defensively against their best opponents this season and have had 400+ yards on offense just twice all season (vs. Eastern Kentucky and at Akron), it’s hard to feel like they are going to keep it close against Toledo.
Bowling Green vs. Toledo Prediction and Picks
Bowling Green vs. Toledo Prediction: Toledo to win
Bowling Green vs. Toledo Picks: Toledo to cover (Best Value: -14.5 @ -109 at BetUS) & Toledo team total over (Best Value: over 33.5 @ -104 at BetOnline)
Since losing to Buffalo last month, Toledo has, to borrow a phrase often used in soccer, left it late in wins over Eastern Michigan and Ball State. So, there is certainly some risk involved in backing them to cover such a large spread.
But this is a bad matchup for Bowling Green on both sides of the ball, and there are a number of weaknesses that Toledo can take advantage of on the way to a resounding win in their home finale.
They are ninth in the conference in scoring (22.4 PPG), tenth in total yards per game (331.6 YPG), yards per pass (6.4), and sacks allowed (30), and 11th in rushing yards per game (109.9 YPG) and rushing yards per attempt (3.2).
Toledo’s defense has given up some yards on the ground, but they are tops in the conference in passing yards allowed per game, opponent completion percentage, yards allowed per pass, and interceptions.
Offensively, the Rockets are 1st in the MAC in scoring, 3rd in total yards per game, and 1st in total yards allowed per game. They rank 3rd in both rushing yards per attempt (4.5) and yards per pass (7.5).
We should see Finn back in business with his legs after his season low against Ball State, and Toledo’s D should have a much better night against the run after allowing Ball State’s Carson Steele to run for 198 yards.
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