College Football Futures: Pump the brakes on the Heisman hype for Caleb Williams

If you’ve played, watch, bet on, or written about sports, you’ll have seen this phenomenon a time or ten. It’s not unique to college football, and it’s not unique to American sports either. In fact, I’d venture a guess and say that UK media is even worse about it. But here we are, all of one start and five and a half significant quarters of action into Caleb Williams’ collegiate career, and he is being discussed as a Heisman Trophy candidate.

No, not for 2022. A little early to think about that, yes, but not premature. Oklahoma starting quarterbacks are often in the Heisman conversation. Spencer Rattler opened this season as the Heisman favorite before finding himself out of the mix and out of a job.

No, not for 2022, but for 2021. Yes, this season. He isn’t listed at all of our top recommended sportsbooks just yet. And BetOnline Sportsbook has yet to update their Heisman odds to fully fall in line with the books that have jumped on the hype train, as you can find the fantastic freshman at +5000 there. That puts him ninth on their list, which is still much, much higher than you would have pegged him, say, when Oklahoma was down 41-23 to Texas with 2:45 left in the third quarter all of nine days ago.

But at BetMGM, you can find Williams with the fifth-best odds to win the Heisman. He sits at +2000 with Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder.

2021 Heisman Trophy Odds

• Bryce Young, QB, Alabama +200
• Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss +200
• C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State +800
• Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State +1400
• Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas +2000
• Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati +2000
• Caleb Williams, QB, Oklahoma +2000
• Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh +2500
• TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State +4000
• Brian Robinson, Jr., RB, Alabama +6600

2021 Heisman Trophy odds are via BetMGM as of Monday, October 18, 2021 at 2:25 p.m. ET.

SEC Signal Callers Continue to Top Heisman Odds After Prolific Performances on the Road

Williams is on the rise and has a stat-padding opportunity this week as the Sooners visit Kansas (1-5, 0-3 Big 12). The Jayhawks are one of the worst teams in the FBS and should provide little resistance. But he has a little ways to catch up with favorites Corral and Young, who continue to hold steady as the top two, well ahead of the field.

After Alabama fell from #1 and the ranks of the unbeaten with their last-second loss at Texas A&M, they bounced back with their latest demolition of Mississippi State in Starkville. Young topped the 300-yard mark for the fourth time this season, throwing for 348 yards and four scores as the Crimson Tide battered the Bulldogs 49-9.

Corral didn’t pile up the touchdowns as Ole Miss held off Tennessee in Knoxville. But he certainly piled up the yards. He had an off night through the air, completing only 21 of 38 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns, and he threw his first interception of the season. But he compensated by rushing for a season and career-high 195 yards on 30 carries as the Rebels recorded a 31-26 win over the Vols in Lane Kiffin’s return to Neyland Stadium.

As long as Corral keeps balling and Ole Miss keeps winning, he should remain a favorite. Ole Miss hosts LSU this weekend, which should present another chance for Corral to put up big numbers. The Tigers aren’t the defensive juggernaut that they have been in previous years.

Young, meanwhile, gets his chance to do a number on Tennessee as the Tide take on the Vols in Tuscaloosa. Look for these two to continue to hold the fort at the top.

Should Williams Be in the Mix?

Williams most certainly deserves all the plaudits for helping lead the Sooners back from the brink against the Longhorns and following it up with a stellar showing against TCU last Saturday. After accounting for 300 yards and three touchdowns in the Red River Rivalry win, he torched TCU for 361 yards and five touchdowns in Oklahoma’s 52-31 win.

But let’s pump the brakes a little bit here.

Fair enough, this is an interesting year at the top. Often enough, the top Heisman candidates will be top offensive players from the top teams. But top-ranked Georgia doesn’t have one. Ridder isn’t putting up big enough numbers to be in the mix with Corral and Young. And Stroud and Ohio State took a hit with the Buckeyes’ early home loss to Oregon.

And if you go a little further, Michigan, Penn State, and Oklahoma State don’t have that standout candidate either. Warren is rising up the board, but the Cowboys would likely have to run the table for him to garner serious consideration come voting time.

So it stands to reason that Williams could find himself in the mix if he continues to put up big numbers and the Sooners stay undefeated. For a true freshman to unseat a seemingly entrenched starter–and preseason Heisman favorite–and lead the way for a national championship contender is nothing short of impressive, even if he didn’t have a starting role until the middle of the season.

But let’s slow down with this for a bit. Sometimes great performances need to be appreciated without sending the hype train into overdrive.

Potential Push for Pitt Passer Pickett?

While Williams is making a premature leap into the ranks, one name making a little more justified rise is Pitt’s Kenny Pickett.

Were it not for Pitt’s home loss to Western Michigan, which is par for the course for the Panthers but nonetheless stupefying even though the Broncos are a decent team, Pickett would be getting a lot more love right now. As it is, the Panthers are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the ACC, having won three straight since that loss.

Pickett is a big reason for that. He had a season-low 203 yards and two touchdowns at Virginia Tech last Saturday, but throw in his 38 rushing yards and a touchdown and he had a solid day overall, given how tough Blacksburg can be for opposing teams.

Can he make a serious push from here? He gets a chance to make an impression this week as the Panthers host Clemson. This Clemson team isn’t the same as any of their recent teams. But that is because of their offense, not their defense. The Tigers are second in the FBS in scoring defense, rank in the top ten in fewest passing yards allowed per attempt, and also rank respectably in passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and total yards allowed.

Virginia Tech’s defense is tough and forces mistakes, and Lane Stadium is as formidable a setting as there is in college football. But this shapes up as Pickett’s toughest challenge of the season. If he can pass it and lead the Panthers to a win, his odds should be a bit shorter come next week.