Fresno State vs #9 Michigan: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/31)

As Saturday approaches and College Football really gets rolling, we needed to dive into one more matchup for this Saturday. Our defending National Champions, the Michigan Wolverines, ranked #9 in the country take on a feisty squad out of the Mountain West, in the Fresno State Bulldogs. Now, this matchup isn’t the greatest on paper, as the home team is a 20.5 point favorite, but I think it might be closer than we think.

The Wolverines are going to be dealing with quite the championship hangover, as they lose their starting QB, RB, and Head Coach all to the NFL. Life without Harbaugh might be rough for Michigan, and even at home, I think the Bulldogs will be able to put up a fight with their returning team. Fresno State returns QB Mikey Keene, who threw for 2,900 yards and 24 TDs last season, RB Malik Sherrod, who ran for 950+ yards and 10 total TDs. They also return a trio of wideouts who are primed and ready to step up in this aerial attack. The O-Line returns 4 starters as well, and they gave up less than 20 sacks in conference play last year.

Michigan will certainly have their hands full with Fresno State, and they are already trying to revamp both sides of the ball. Will they be able to cover this 3 touchdown number at home? Or can the Bulldogs come to play in the Big House?

Fresno State vs #9 Michigan: Don’t Underestimate the Bulldogs

Matchup Information – Fresno State vs Michigan

• Venue & Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, MI)
• Date: Saturday, August 31st, 2024
• Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NBC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Fresno State +21 (-110)
• Michigan -21 (-110)

Money Line

• Fresno State +870
• Michigan -1500

Total

• Over 45.5 (-105)
• Under 45.5 (-115)

How Will Michigan Start Season Following Championship?

The Wolverines are coming off a National Championship win, but they return just 5 starters from last season and have a new head coach. Yes, Sherrone Moore did a good job filling in during Harbaugh’s suspension, but he has a lot of production to replace on both sides of the ball. Michigan will certainly rely more on their defense as the offense may need some extra time to figure things out, as they are replacing all 5 O-Linemen as well. I could see the Michigan offense struggling against this Fresno State defense, even at home.

Fresno State Bulldogs Defense

They held teams to just 23.5 points per game last year, and with some additional transfers and key prospects returning from injury, I think the unit will be even better. USC Transfer Korey Foreman adds depth to their defensive line, LB Malachi Langley is emerging as a great defensive play caller, and CB Cam Lockridge will be returning from injury, immediately boosting their secondary. Personally, I could see the defenses outplaying the offenses in this matchup to start the season.

While both units will have their work cutout for them, I still see the offenses struggling. Fresno State may have trouble running the ball, as Michigan does return two of the Big Ten’s best defensive tackles with Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, while some new faces will rush from the edge. Some transfer LBs will help with the lack of depth on the edge, but the secondary may have some question marks, considering Safety Rod Moore went down in the spring with an injury, meaning underclassmen and transfers make up most of the DB unit. I think Fresno State will try to expose the inexperienced Michigan secondary by attacking with some big plays early and often.

Mikey Keene is not a scrambler, he stays in the pocket and makes throws. With an O-Line returning 4/5 starters and 3 experienced pass catchers, I could see him having a big game through the air. I’ll actually have two bets in this game, one against the spread, and the other a player prop.

Fresno State vs Michigan Best Bets

Fresno State vs Michigan Prediction: Michigan Wins, Fresno State Covers, Under 45.5

Best Bets: Fresno State +21 (-110) BetOnline

I already touched on why I think these offenses struggle, which will result in less points, which will make it much easier for Fresno State to cover three touchdowns. My mind leans under in this game, and while I don’t see Fresno necessarily scoring 20+ points, I don’t think Michigan puts up a 30 ball. This Fresno defense is underrated in my eyes, and I am sold on the fact that Michigan will have offensive struggles early in the year. As for a player prop, I am backing Keene to air it out.

Bonus Bets: Mikey Keene Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetOnline

Mikey Keene only went over this number in 1 of his final 4 games last season throwing for 380 yards and 3 TDs in a bowl game win against New Mexico State. However, he started off the season red hot. Not only were the Fresno State Bulldogs 7-1 to start the season, Keene threw for 226+ yards in 7 of those starts, including his first 5.

The Bulldogs started last season on the road against another Big Ten opponent. Keene torched the Purdue defense for 366 yards and 4 TDs while leading the Bulldogs to a 39-35 victory. They scored 36.4 points per game in their first 5 matchups last season, and Keene averaged 294.8 yards per game while adding 14 TDs and just 4 Interceptions. Fresno State will probably be playing from behind, meaning Keene is going to have to let it fly to have a shot at beating Michigan.

While they may not be able to win outright, I do trust the Bulldogs to keep this game close, and for Keene to earn his stripes. He averaged over 37 passing attempts away from home last season, and soared over this line each game with 40+ attempts. Give this man the ball, let him air it out, and I think Fresno State has a great shot to cover.

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