#19 Illinois vs #9 Penn State: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/28)

Big Ten football is off and running, and Saturday Night brings us a Top 20 Matchup at Beaver Stadium, as the #9 Penn State Nittany Lions host the #19 Illinois Fighting Illini. Not many people expected Illinois to be undefeated going into this game, and I’m sure many expected them to be 2-2. They picked up a huge home win against Kansas in Week 2, stunning the Jayhawks at home. After beating CMU, they followed it up with an upset win in OT in Lincoln against the Cornhuskers, instilling some huge confidence in the program.

Luke Altmyer is leading the offense and looks fantastic. He’s thrown for 862 yards and 10 TDs in four games, and he’s got a 4-0 record to show for it. The defense has come up huge as well, forcing 3 picks and a fumble against the Jayhawks, and an interception against Nebraska as well. The problem hasn’t been the secondary, but on the road against Penn State, they could have issues defending the run.

I don’t want to take anything away from Drew Allar, but the Nittany Lions rely heavily on their tandem backs to move the ball. Penn State is 3-0 and this is their first Big Ten matchup. Coming out of the bye week, they steam rolled Kent State, winning 56-0. While Penn State might not be as tested as the Illini, I still think they are the much better squad overall. Let’s break this down and find our best bets!

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Illinois vs Penn State: Big Ten Football

Matchup Information – Illinois vs Penn State

• Venue & Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
• Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
• Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NBC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Illinois +18 (-111)
• Penn State -18 (-109)

Money Line

• Illinois +615
• Penn State -800

Total

• Over 47.5 (-115)
• Under 47.5 (-105)

Undefeated Illinois Rolls into Penn State

Altmyer has been rock solid this season, and while Nebraska’s defense is good, Penn State’s is great. They’ve completely shutdown all of their opponents, however this will be the toughest offense they have faced. The Illini are firing on all cylinders, putting up nearly 350 yards per game and scoring 28 points per game. They have a very balanced attack, rushing for over 600 yards along with Altmyer’s 860 through the air, and have 4 backs with over 100 rushing yards this year. Those guys combine for 5.3 yards per rush, but they face a very tough Penn State front 7.

They are allowing just 85 rushing yards per game, and less than 3 yards per rush. Illinois may have to turn to Altmyer’s arm in order to move the ball, as I trust Penn State’s D-Line to win their battle in the trenches. For the Illini, I would be much more worried about the other side of the things.

Illinois is allowing almost 4 yards per rush, and struggle to control the line of scrimmage on defense. Kansas was able to rush for 186 yards and 5.3 per carry in their matchup. Without Jalon Daniels’ picks, the Jayhawks probably win that 6 point game. When they faced Nebraska, Illinois allowed 166 yards on the ground and 4.3 per rush. Now they face one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, and one of the best combination of running backs as well.

Penn State Rushing Attack

Drew Allar has 729 passing yards this season, while as a team, Penn State has 765 rushing yards in 3 games. That’s over 255 per contest, and as a team, they are going for 6 yards per rush. Allar has added 77 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, going for over 4 yards per carry. Now, let’s talk about these RBs.

Nicholas Singleton

The Junior from Shillington, Pennsylvania is 6′ and a meaty 227 pounds. He will run anyone over. Singleton has ran the ball 37 times for 314 yards this year, adding 2 TDs and 8.5 yards per rush. He is so tough to bring down, and isn’t afraid of a major workload. He’s added 2 TDs though the air as well, catching 4 passes for 49 yards this season, plus he’s a great pass blocker as well. When he does need a break, Penn State just throws in their other stud RB.

Kaytron Allen

Another Junior from Norfolk, Virginia, Allen is 5’11” but 229. He’s seen a similar workload to Singleton, running 35 times for 187 yards. While he hasn’t found the end zone on the ground, Allen does have one 20 yard TD reception this season. With both backs being 225+ pounds, you can imagine how hard it is to bring either one of them down. Illinois’s defensive linemen and linebackers will be incredibly worn out by the 2nd half from trying to tackle these dudes.

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Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn State Nittany Lions Best Bets

Illinois vs Penn State Prediction: Penn State Wins & Covers, Under 47.5

Best Bets: Illinois/Penn State Under 48 (-110) Bovada

I was looking at player props in this game, but none caught my eye. I think both Allen and Singleton’s lines are inflated, and it’s scary betting on either of them considering its a tandem system. While they have basically split carries 50/50 perfectly, Singleton is certainly the favorite near the goal line and in short down situations. Because of this, I think 80 yards from him is a stretch, along with 62 for Allen, even though they both probably clear this line.

I think Penn State dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This will wear down Illinois’ linemen, disrupting their entire game plan. The Nittany Lions should be able to do whatever they want offensively, but they run the ball a ton and operate slowly. I trust their defense to hold Illinois to less than 2 TDs, and I don’t think their offense will make this get out of hand.

Prior to booking this total, I looked at Illinois TT under in this game, but it is listed at 14.5 which worries me. I don’t see them scoring 20, and I don’t think Penn State’s offense will put up too many either, causing this game to stay under. So far I have been very impressed with Penn State’s defense, and in their first Big Ten matchup of the season, I see them coming to play.

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