#13 Kansas State vs BYU Prediction & Expert Picks: Who Will Claim Conference Catfight in Provo?

Next week, Kansas State has a huge home game against fellow top-15 team Oklahoma State. But before the Wildcats can look ahead to their matchup with the Cowboys, they have to navigate a tough trip to Provo, Utah for their conference opener against BYU (10:30 pm ET, ESPN).

K-State (3-0) enters Big 12 play after sandwiching home wins over UT Martin and Arizona around a road win over Tulane in non-conference play. Last week, they dominated a battle of Wildcats, shutting down Arizona’s offense in a 31-7 victory in Manhattan.

That performance against Arizona, who was ranked #20 going into that matchup, was the perfect way to head into Big 12 play, especially when they open with a tough road game.

The Cougars (3-0) were also perfect in the non-conference portion of their schedule, defeating Southern Illinois at home and winning at SMU and Wyoming.

While Kansas State came in 3^rd in the Big 12 preseason poll, BYU was picked 13^th, ahead of only Cincinnati, Houston, and Arizona State. But tonight’s game is an opportunity for the Cougars to show that they could be much better than expected.

Kansas State vs BYU Betting Analysis

If BYU is to have a chance to pull off the upset tonight, two factors will be key.

Through their first three games, Kansas State has compiled 283, 215, and 235 rushing yards and is averaging nearly seven yards per rushing attempt.

Can the Cougars make K-State quarterback Avery Johnson have to use his arm to win the game for the Wildcats? The sensational sophomore has completed 64.2% of his passes and thrown only one interception in 67 attempts, but he will be going against a defense that has done well against the pass thus far. The Cougars’ first three opponents completed only 47.3% of their passes and averaged only 4.2 yards per pass attempt.

The Cougars will also need to have some balance on offense. Tulane, who led 20-10 at halftime in their 34-27 loss to Kansas State, did that, as QB Darian Mensah threw for 342 yards and RB Makhi Hughes tallied 128 yards on 21 carries. BYU doesn’t necessarily need the same numbers, but they need to move the ball well.

A lot will depend on the availability of running backs LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati. Martin (ankle) and Ropati (knee) were injured in the win over SMU and didn’t play against Wyoming. Without that duo, the Cougars tallied 140 yards on 28 attempts, 62 of them by QB Jake Retzlaff, who isn’t on Johnson’s level as a runner but can make plays with his legs.

Kansas State vs BYU Prediction & Expert Picks

This matchup does profile as a potential problem, especially if Martin and Ropati can play.

Under Kalani Sitake, BYU is 11-8 (.579) ATS against ranked opponents. However, Kansas State does counter that with a 7-2 (.778) record as a road favorite under Chris Klieman. Additionally, they are 24-12-2 (.667) ATS overall as a favorite under Klieman. In that time period—since 2019—only New Mexico State (13-4, .765) and Rutgers (14-6, .700) have been better at covering as a favorite.

That said, Lavell Edwards Stadium is a very tough place to play, and the stadium will be rocking for this matchup. Also, BYU’s road win over SMU is not to be taken lightly.

The Cougars may not win tonight, but the Wildcats will leave this catfight with at least a few metaphorical claw and teeth marks.

Kansas State vs BYU Prediction: Kansas State to win

Kansas State vs BYU Pick: 1) BYU +7 2) BYU team total over 20.5 points (-125 at BetOnline) 

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