Liberty vs Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Picks: Will the Flames Be Extinguished for the First Time This Season?

Life in Conference USA couldn’t be going much better for Liberty, as the Flames are 7-0 and knocking on the door in the AP poll. But to continue that perfect start and potentially land in next week’s rankings, they will have to pass a big test Tuesday night at Western Kentucky (7:30 pm ET, ESPNU).

The Hilltoppers (4-3, 2-1 Conference USA) were atop the C-USA preseason poll, with the Flames sitting second ahead of their first season in the conference.

But as the two teams prepare for their Tuesday tussle, the Flames (7-0, 5-0 C-USA) sit alone atop the conference standings, with Jacksonville State (6-2, 4-1 C-USA) and New Mexico State (5-3, 3-1 C-USA) between Liberty and Western Kentucky.

Both teams had a close game this past Tuesday, with differing results.

At Jacksonville State, WKU led by ten twice in the first half but went scoreless in the second half, and the Gamecocks pulled out a 20-17 win on a field goal with no time left.

Liberty, meanwhile, trailed Middle Tennessee twice in the second half but scored the game’s final two touchdowns in a 42-35 win at home.

Are we in for a close contest in Bowling Green? Early odds have the Flames favored by a little more than a field goal.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada (Sunday, October 22, 2023, at 7:30 pm ET)

Spread

• Liberty -4 (-110)
• Western Kentucky +4 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 60.5 (-110)
• Under 60.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Liberty -185
• Western Kentucky +160

Can Liberty Rattle Misfiring Reed?

Last season, Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed threw for 300+ yards nine times in 14 games, including four 400-yard games.

Reed opened this season by throwing for 336 yards in a win over South Florida, but he hasn’t hit the 300-yard mark in the six games since.

He is throwing the ball as much as he did last season–he averaged 43 pass attempts per game last season and is averaging 42 per game thus far this season–but he has suffered a severe drop in accuracy.

In 2022, he completed 64.6% of his 602 passes, but he has completed only 59.2% of his 294 passes to date this season and has hit only 60% or more of his throws in only two games. Last season, he failed to complete at least 60% of his passes in only four games.

In the loss at Jacksonville State, he had his most inaccurate performance of the season, completing only 50% of his 48 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.

Game-by-Game Numbers for Western Kentucky QB Austin Reed (2023 Season)

• South Florida: 29 of 50 (58.0%), 336 yards, 2 TD
• Houston Christian: 27 of 33 (81.8%), 253 yards, 4 TD
• Ohio State: 21 of 37 (56.8%), 207 yards, TD, INT
• Troy: 24 of 40 (60.0%), 275 yards, 2 TD
• Middle Tennessee: 30 of 52 (57.7%), 297 yards, 2 TD, INT
• Louisiana Tech: 19 of 34 (55.9%), 297 yards, 3 TD, INT
• Jacksonville State: 24 of 48 (50.0%), 250 yards, 2 TD, INT
• Season: 174 of 294 (59.2%), 1,915 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT

Will the lights come on this week? Things get worse before they get better, actually.

If you take a gander at updated college football statistics, who leads the FBS in interceptions? That would be Liberty, whose 15 interceptions are three more than any other team.

Additionally, the Flames rank ninth in the FBS in opponent completion percentage (53.7%) and 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.2).

Last week, Middle Tennessee QB Nicholas Vattiato was 24 for 37 for 332 yards and four touchdowns, but he was picked off in Liberty territory on the Blue Raiders’ final two possessions to help seal the deal.

There’s a strong possibility that turnovers could be decisive in this matchup as well, but the Flames aren’t the only ones who have happy hands on defense.

Only Bowling Green (20) has more takeaways than Liberty and Western Kentucky have (18 apiece), and only Penn State (+12) and Oklahoma (+10) have a better turnover margin than the Flames and Hilltoppers (+9).

Liberty vs Western Kentucky Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Western Kentucky to win

Picks: Liberty -4 (-110 at Bovada) & Liberty team total over 31.5 points (-120 at Bovada)

The Hilltoppers are a tough team to beat at Houchens Stadium, but with Reed struggling with accuracy, I don’t have a lot of faith in WKU to hand the Flames their first loss of the season.

Also, Liberty’s biggest strength is where Western Kentucky is weakest on defense.

The Flames are second in the FBS in rushing yards per game (274.6) and sixth in yards per attempt (5.7), while the Hilltoppers are 126th in rushing yards allowed per game (203.7) and allow an average of 4.8 yards per attempt.

Liberty ran for 401 yards against Middle Tennessee, with QB Kaidon Salter going for 160 yards on 16 attempts and RB Quinton Cooley going for 134 yards and three scores on 24 attempts. They may not reach those lofty numbers against Western Kentucky, but another big night on the ground will help propel the Flames to an eighth straight win and a potential place in next Sunday’s AP poll.

Where to Bet on College Football

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

There are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting. Below are some of the books that we highly recommend:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.