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Louisville vs USC Holiday Bowl Prediction & Picks: Can the Trojans Still Thrill Without C-Will?

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Miller Moss and USC take on Penn State on Saturday

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The Holiday Bowl is often one of the most exciting games of the college football bowl season, dating back to its inception in 1978. This year’s edition, which takes place tonight (8:00 pm ET, FOX), features two disappointed and depleted teams in Louisville and USC, but that doesn’t mean it will be devoid of excitement.

Both the Cardinals (10-3) and Trojans (7-5) will take the field at Petco Park perhaps wishing they were playing elsewhere. But there are different levels to the disappointment in each camp.

In Jeff Brohm’s first season back at his alma mater, Louisville emerged as the ACC’s best team with Clemson and North Carolina failing to live up to preseason expectations.

Unfortunately, things did not end all that well for the Cardinals. First, they were upset at home by 6-5 Kentucky to close out the regular season. Then, in the ACC Championship Game against Florida State, they couldn’t capitalize on the Seminoles being down to true freshman QB Brock Glenn, who made his first career start in FSU’s 16-6 win in Charlotte.

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While the final couple of games took some of the shine off of an otherwise successful season for Louisville, the final half of the season was a nightmare for USC.

The Trojans opened the season with six straight wins, but after struggling defensively against Arizona State, Colorado, and Arizona, things really fell apart for USC when their schedule toughened up. Over their final six games, the Trojans’ only win was a one-point victory at Cal, which was sealed by a stop on a late two-point conversion attempt by the Bears.

As with many teams taking part in this year’s bowls, both Louisville and USC will be shorthanded for the Holiday Bowl.

The most notable absence for USC is 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, but the Trojans will also be without NFL Draft entrants RB MarShawn Lloyd and WR Brenden Rice, as well as a number of other offensive and defensive players who have hit the transfer portal.

Louisville doesn’t have any concerns at quarterback, as well-traveled senior Jack Plummer will close out his collegiate career against a familiar foe. But the Cardinals will be without leading rusher Jawhar Jordan and leading receiver Jamari Thrash, as well as a number of their own portal entrants.

Louisville vs USC 2023 Holiday Bowl graphic

Louisville vs USC Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. If you’re interested in trying them out, we recommend checking out our BetOnline review.

Spread

Louisville -7 (-105)
USC +7 (-115)

Over/Under

Over 58.5 (-115)
Under 58.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Louisville -275
USC +230

2023 Season Results for Louisville (11-2)

(Atlanta, GA – Mercedes-Benz Stadium) vs Georgia Tech: won 39-34
vs Murray State: won 56-0
(Indianapolis, IN – Lucas Oil Stadium) vs Indiana: won 21-14
vs Boston College: won 56-28
at North Carolina State: won 13-10
vs Notre Dame: won 33-20
at Pittsburgh: lost 38-21
vs Duke: won 23-0
vs Virginia Tech: won 34-3
vs Virginia: won 31-24
at Miami: won 38-31
vs Kentucky: lost 38-31
(Charlotte, NC – ACC Championship Game) vs Florida State: lost 16-6

2023 Season Results for USC (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12)

vs San Jose State: won 56-28
vs Nevada: won 66-14
vs Stanford: won 56-10
at Arizona State: won 42-28
at Colorado: won 48-41
vs Arizona: won 43-41 (3OT)
at Notre Dame: lost 48-20
vs Utah: lost 34-32
at Cal: won 50-49
vs Washington: lost 52-42
at Oregon: lost 36-27
vs UCLA: lost 38-20

Players to Watch for Louisville

QB Jack Plummer: 235 of 370 (63.5%), 3,063 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT
RB Isaac Guerendo: 109 carries, 649 yards, 8 TD rushing; 17 catches, 192 yards receiving
DE Ashton Gillotte: 45 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 11 sacks

Players to Watch for USC

QB Miller Moss: 23 of 32, 309 yards, TD
WR Tahj Washington: 52 catches, 963 yards, 6 TD
WR/KR/PR Zacharian Branch: 29 catches, 311 yards, 2 TD receiving; 8 carries, 70 yards, TD rushing; 24 kick returns, 442 yards, TD; 15 punt returns, 309 yards, TD

Louisville vs USC Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Louisville to win

Despite the number of absences, both teams bring enough notable contributors that there’s still reason to think this could and should be an exciting contest.

Plummer didn’t play well in the ACC Championship Game, but the former Purdue and Cal QB has had a solid season after reuniting with his former coach. And while Jordan and Thrash are out, he will have Guerendo and most of his leading receivers to help lead the offensive attack.

With Williams not in action, Moss will draw the start for USC, and he will have some weapons at his disposal, including Branch, who could use this game as a springboard for a sensational sophomore season. With what the Trojans still do have to work with offensively, I expect them to still be able to put some points on the board.

That said, even with no Jordan or Thrash, I still have to take Louisville here. Defense was the issue that broke USC’s season, and I don’t see that unit stepping up against the Cardinals, even with new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn already at work for the Trojans.

Picks: Louisville/USC First Half Over 28.5 & USC +7 (Both -115 at BetOnline – Bet These Odds & Get a 100% Bonus on Your First Cryptocurrency Deposit)

With an inexperienced QB in for USC, there’s some risk involved in backing the Trojans to cover, even though I think they will come out on the losing end.

But the Holiday Bowl has been known for fireworks over the years, from BYU’s game-winning Hail Mary in 1980, to the Major Applewhite-led comeback for Texas against Washington in 2001, to last year’s wild finish between Oregon and North Carolina.

All told, 21 (out of 43) editions of the game have been decided by seven or fewer points, including four of the last seven. So, I feel pretty good about the potential outcome here, whether it occurs via a thrilling finish or a late throwaway score and a backdoor cover for the Trojans.

Where to Bet on Louisville vs USC and Other College Football Games

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season, including on the two CFP semifinal matchups between Michigan and Alabama and Washington and Texas.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

There are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting. Below are some of the books that we highly recommend:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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Louisville vs USC Holiday Bowl Prediction & Picks: Can the Trojans Still Thrill Without C-Will?

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