Minnesota vs. Illinois Betting: Will Brown & the Illini upset the odds to continue resurgent campaign in Champaign?

In a wide open Big Ten West Division, Saturday’s showdown between Minnesota and newly minted Top 25 team Illinois shapes up to a big game for how the race to lose to Michigan or Ohio State will play out.

Since losing in the final minute at Indiana in their second game of the season, the Fighting Illini have reeled off four straight wins thanks to a stingy defense and the nation’s leading rusher, Chase Brown.

Their hot streak has resulted in a place in this week’s AP poll, and they are two wins from the program’s first winning season since 2011 and three wins from their first winning record in Big Ten play since 2007.

But their sights are no doubt set higher with the division very winnable. A win over Minnesota will bring loftier goals even more into focus, but it will have to come as an underdog, as the Golden Gophers, with their own standout running back and stingy defense, are favored to leave Champaign with the win.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten, #24 AP Poll)
• Venue & Location: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Illinois)
• Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
• Game Time: 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time (11:00 a.m. local time)
• How to Watch Minnesota vs. Illinois: Big Ten Network

Minnesota vs. Illinois Early Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Minnesota -6.5 (-114)
• Illinois +6.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 37.5 (-112)
• Under 37.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Minnesota -275
• Illinois +220

Minnesota vs. Illinois Updated Odds (Friday, October 14)

Game odds are via BetOnline.

Spread

• Minnesota -6.5 (-110)
• Illinois +6.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 39.5 (-105)
• Under 39.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Minnesota -245
• Illinois +198

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Betting Picks

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction: Illinois to win

Minnesota vs. Illinois Picks: Illinois to cover (Best Value: +6.5 @ -106 at BetOnline) & Illinois ML (Best Value: +222 at Bovada Sportsbook)

The spread would likely a bit different if Illinois starting QB Tommy DeVito’s status was not uncertain.

DeVito suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter of Saturday’s 9-6 win over Iowa, and if he is unavailable, Artur Sitkowski will start for the Illini. Against the Hawkeyes, Sitkowski was 13 of 19 for 74 yards and an interception.

While Illinois could be missing a key piece of their offense, Minnesota is expected to get one of theirs back for the trip.

Star RB Mohamed Ibrahim missed the game against Purdue two Saturdays ago with an ankle injury, and his absence was certainly felt in a mistake-filled 20-10 home loss to Purdue.

Can Illinois get the win if DeVito is unable to play? Sitkowski is a step down, but he managed to not give the game away against Iowa.

After going for 129 yards on 25 carries against Wisconsin and 146 on 31 carries against Iowa, I’m confident that Brown can have a productive day against Minnesota’s defense, which will help Sitkowski be more at ease.

Chase Brown. ?@chasebrown____ x @IlliniFootball pic.twitter.com/HTwyM0ytnf

— Illinois on BTN (@IllinoisOnBTN) October 9, 2022

Game-by-Game Statistics for Illinois RB Chase Brown

• vs. Wyoming: 19 carries, 151 yards, 2 TD
• at Indiana: 36 carries, 199 yards
• vs. Virginia: 20 carries, 146 yards
• vs. Chattanooga: 20 carries, 106 yards, TD
• at Wisconsin: 25 carries, 129 yards, TD
• vs. Iowa: 31 carries, 146 yards

The Illini will certainly need more than nine points to beat the Golden Gophers, but their playmaking defense will put them in favorable positions.

This season, Illinois has 21 sacks, nine interceptions, and is allowing opponents to complete just 44.8 percent of their passes.

They can definitely get to Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan, who threw three picks, completed only 18 of 33 passes, and was sacked twice against Purdue. If they do get to him and force another off day, it will negate the impact that Ibrahim can have and turn the tide in favor of the home team.

I’d say it’s a shame that one of the bigger games of the weekend will only be on BTN, but this is not a game that will be high on entertainment value. It will be easier to watch than Iowa-Illinois was, but the bar is pretty low there.

But where it won’t be high on entertainment value, there is plenty of betting value in backing the Illini to win their fifth game in a row, with or without their starting QB. A heavy diet of the nation’s leading rusher and another dominant defensive performance will prove to be a winning recipe for the home team in Champaign.

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