Mississippi State vs. Alabama Betting: Death, taxes, another torching in Tuscaloosa for the Bulldogs?

After nearly winning only to then lose at Tennessee last Saturday, Alabama has no margin for error the rest of the way this season, starting with this weekend’s visit from Mississippi State.

In Knoxville, the Crimson Tide came back from 28-10 down to take a 49-42 lead in the fourth quarter. But they failed to close out the win, and after missing a potential game-winning field goal, allowed the Vols to get into position for their own game-winning try, which Chase McGrath converted to send Neyland Stadium into pandemonium.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, missed an opportunity to make the trip to Tuscaloosa as a top-15 team, as they laid a big ol’ egg at Kentucky in a 27-17 loss.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: #24 Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2, 2-2 SEC) vs. #6 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1, 3-1 SEC)
• Venue & Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Alabama)
• Date: Saturday, October 22, 2022
• Game Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time (6:00 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Alabama: ESPN

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Mississippi State +21 (-110)
• Alabama -21 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 60.5 (-112)
• Under 60.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Mississippi State +890
• Alabama -1700

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction and Betting Picks

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Prediction: Alabama to win

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Picks: Alabama to cover (Best Value: -21 @ -107 at BetUS) & Mississippi State/Alabama over (Best Value: over 60.5 @ -112 at BetOnline)

In terms of geography, Mississippi State and Alabama are closer to each other than any other SEC universities.

But that is about the only thing that they are close in when it comes to their football rivalry. The last time that Mississippi State beat Alabama was 2007, which was Nick Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa.

Since that loss, these two have rarely played a remotely close game. Over the last 14 matchups, Alabama has held MSU to 10 or fewer points 12 times and won by 21+ points nine times.

The Tide have won the last four games by a total margin of 152-16, and in the last two matchups in Tuscaloosa in 2018 and 2020, they blanked the Bulldogs.

It is interesting to note that Mississippi State’s last win at Bryant-Denny Stadium was in 2006, in Alabama’s first SEC game following what was their last loss to Tennessee prior to this past Saturday.

If you’re a believer in narratives and whatnot, that might feel like a compelling reason to put a few bucks on MSU to pull off the upset.

I won’t tell you not to, but there are better uses of your money based on how things have played out between these two teams in recent years and with how the Bulldogs have delivered duds in their biggest road trip this season.

In their conference opener at LSU, they led the Tigers 13-0 at one point, only to lose 31-16. In Saturday’s loss, the Air Raid had a rough night, and so did their rushing defense, which allowed Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr. to go for almost 200 yards.

Both losses occurred with MSU seemingly poised to take a leap, so there is a chance that having no expectations attached may well bring out a better performance this week.

They are certainly a much better team than what they showed in Lexington, and their response to getting knocked back down to earth at LSU included dominant wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Mike Leach has led a few momentous upsets in his career as well. So, anything is certainly possible.

But since their win in 2007, Mississippi State has had the misfortune of being Alabama’s next opponent following a loss four times.

• 2010: lost at LSU, won 30-10 at home vs. Mississippi State
• 2011: lost at home to LSU, won 24-7 at MSU
• 2019: lost at home to LSU, won 38-7 at MSU
• 2021: lost at Texas A&M, won 49-9 at MSU

It would be nice if the Bulldogs could spice things up a little and make things competitive, much like Tennessee decided to do after years of similar results against the Tide.

But comparing the task that lie ahead of Tennessee last Saturday and the one that lies ahead of Mississippi State this Saturday is apples to oranges, or better yet, apples to fish or something equally not even in the same realm.

I will show a little optimism and say that the Bulldogs will put more points on the board than they usually do against Alabama and do their part to help the over hit, but all signs point to yet another lopsided result.

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