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Mountain West Conference 2024 Preview: NCAA Football Predictions & Team Insights
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Let’s dive into one of my favorite G5 conferences in the country as we take a look at the Mountain West Conference. This league features one of the biggest preseason favorites to win the entire conference, but are there other teams that could compete for that title?
Despite not being officially ranked, the Boise State Broncos are huge favorites to win the MWC and rank around 28th in the nation. At a glance, I do not see any other teams challenging them for the title, but there is still plenty of football to be played. Last year teams really beat up on each other as all 12 teams ranked from 6-2 to 2-6 in conference play. The UNLV Rebels lost to Boise in the MW Championship, and that will likely a rematch this year.
Odds to Win Mountain West Championship
Ashton Jeanty had over 1,800 all purpose yards and 19 touchdowns last year
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- Boise State -150
- UNLV +350
- Fresno State +600
- Air Force +1200
- Wyoming +1600
- Colorado State +1800
- Hawaii +3300
- San Diego State +5000
- Utah State +5000
- San Jose State +5000
- Nevada +15000
- New Mexico +20000
The deck is certainly stacked against the rest of the conference as Boise State is the second biggest favorite to win their conference behind Liberty in the C-USA (-225). The Broncos are looking to win a second consecutive Mountain West Championship and advance to their 3rd straight MW Championship game. This conference is one that remained unchanged through the realignments, and thus doesn’t see as many curveballs as the other leagues!
Let’s dive in to find a Mountain West Champion!
Mountain West is Boise’s to Lose
Maddux Madsen leads the Broncos into the Mountain West for the 2024 season
After Spencer Danielson led the Broncos to a 3-1 record and a Mountain West Title, Boise State gave him the full gig for the 2024 season, after replacing Andy Avalos in early November. Danielson got the Broncos back on track and won the conference title, but lost to UCLA in the LA Bowl.
Sophomore Maddux Madsen won the starting QB job over USC Transfer Malachi Nelson, and his supporting cast is fantastic. Running Back Ashton Jeanty had over 1,200 yards on the ground and another 500 in the air and scored 19 touchdowns. They are returning 4/5 offensive linemen, and they have plenty of fire power at receiver after bringing in a couple transfers. The defense isn;t anything to write home about, but they certainly have plenty of talent. Defensive End Ahmed Hassanein had 12.5 sacks last season, while Andrew Simpson patrols the linebackers.
My problem with Boise, is that all four of their toughest games will be on the road.
Boise plays:
- @ Oregon
- @ UNLV
- @ Wyoming
- @ Colorado State
While they avoid Fresno State, they are also hosting the forgotten members of the Pac-12, Washington State and Oregon State. Boise hosts all of the bottom of the barrell Mountain West teams, their toughest games will be on the road which could be daunting in this conference.
Who Can Hold Off Broncos?
Can UNLV top Boise State in the Mountain West?
UNLV Rebels
The Rebels seem like consensus favorite to have the best chance at upsetting the heavily favored Broncos. After having their stud freshman QB transfer to USC following a 9 win season, UNLV brought in two senior studs to compete for the job. Either will have returning receiver Ricky White III who posted and 81-1,386-7 season least year and looks to get some revenge on Boise.
The UNLV defense will certainly have some question marks, but Head Coach Barry Doom added 10 transfers on defense, including Safety Jalen Catalon from Texas. If this defense can figure out a way to not allow 28.6 points per game like last year, the Rebels could challenge Boise, as their meeting this season is in Las Vegas, giving the Rebels home field advantage. UNLV will host their two toughest conference opponents, but has a tough challenge @ #22 Kansas early in the season.
Can Fresno State sneak their way into the Mountain West Title Game?
Fresno State Bulldogs
With former assistant Tim Skipper stepping up as the interim coach for the 2024 season, the Bulldogs will try to have as good a start as last year. They started 8-1 and then lost 3 straight games in November to miss the Mountain West Title game, but this team has plenty of returning starters. On offense, QB Mikey Keene and RB Malik Sherrod are joined by recievers Jalen Moss, Mac Dalena and Josiah Freeman, with 4 of 5 OL starters returning as well. The offense is certainly primed for the season.
However, the defense struggled to defend the run last year, giving up 200 yards on the ground in MW play. Fresno added USC Transfer Korey Foreman to help switch that up this year, and the secondary should certainly see some improvement with CB Cam Lockridge returning from injury after playing just 4 games last year. Fresno does not have to play Boise State in conference play, but they travel to Michigan, play @ UNLV, and @ Air Force, which are arguably their 3 toughest games on the schedule.
Fowler-Nicolosi leads the Rams on offense this season
Colorado State Rams
I am very high on the Colorado State Rams this season, and let me tell you why. Returning QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 3,400 yards and 22 TDs last season, and turned down MASSIVE six figure NIL Deals to stay with the Rams. Clearly this kid trusts HC Jay Norvell and has plenty of heart. I’m buying in with him. Tory Horton also returns as a stud receiver for one last season, and they also return 3 O-Linemen and their RB, Justin Marshall who had a strong last few games.
Defensively, the Rams have six returning starters, and the secondary is one of the best in the conference. The Rams open the season against #4 Texas in Austin, and also play rival Colorado early in the season. I see the Rams getting their revenge on the Buffalos this year, and rolling through the rest of the Mountain West. Colorado State avoids Boise and UNLV this season, but they do play Air Force and Fresno both on the road. If they handle business, I see a 2-3 loss Colorado State team making the Mountain West Championship.
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Final Mountain West Predictions
- #1 Boise State
- #2 Fresno State
- #3 Colorado State
- #4 Air Force
- #5 UNLV
- #6 Wyoming
- #7 Hawaii
- #8 San Diego State
- #9 Utah State
- #10 San Jose State
- #11 New Mexico
- #12 Nevada
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- NCAA Football 2024 Preview
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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