North Dakota State vs South Dakota FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Prediction & Picks: Can the Coyotes Get the Best of the Big Bad Bison Again?

Earlier this season, South Dakota defeated North Dakota State for just the second time since the Coyotes made the move from Division II to the FCS in 2008. If they can repeat the feat today, this time at home in Vermillion (2:30 pm ET, ABC), they will advance to the quarterfinals of the FCS Playoffs for the first time ever.

On September 30, USD went into the Fargodome and left with a 24-19 upset victory over the then-#2 Bison, their first win over NDSU since 2015. At the time, the Coyotes were unranked, but that win in Fargo was the catalyst for their best record (7-1) and finish (second) in the Missouri Valley Football Conference since they joined in 2012.

As a result, South Dakota landed the #3 seed in this year’s FCS Playoffs, and they advanced to the quarters for the first time with a 34-24 win over Sacramento State in the second round.

Bet on North Dakota State vs South Dakota and Other FCS Playoff Games at BetOnline

The reward for that is a rematch with North Dakota State, who did not receive one of the eight playoff seeds due to three losses in MVFC play but are back in a familiar spot after blowing out Drake and eliminating #5 Montana State on the road in overtime.

As the saying goes, “If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.” NDSU may not be the top seed in the playoffs, but in addition to being one of USD’s big longtime rivals, the Bison are the preeminent program in the FCS, having won nine national titles since 2011.

Though the Coyotes will be at home and already own a win over the Bison, North Dakota State is favored by almost a touchdown. Will South Dakota buck the odds and bag the program’s biggest win since making the move to the FCS?

North Dakota State vs South Dakota Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.

Spread

• North Dakota State -6.5 (-115)
• South Dakota +6.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 48.5 (-110)
• Under 48.5 (-110)

2023 Season Results for North Dakota State (10-3)

• (Minneapolis, MN) vs Eastern Washington: won 35-10
• vs Maine: won 44-7
• vs Central Arkansas: won 49-31
• vs South Dakota: lost 24-19
• at Missouri State: won 38-10
• at North Dakota: lost 49-24
• vs Western Illinois: won 52-7
• vs Murray State: won 38-6
• at South Dakota State: lost 33-16
• vs Southern Illinois: won 34-10
• at Northern Iowa: won 48-27
• vs Drake (FCS Playoffs First Round): won 66-3
• at #5 Montana State (FCS Playoffs Second Round): won 35-34 (OT)

2023 Season Results for #3 South Dakota (10-2)

• at Missouri: lost 35-10
• vs St. Thomas: won 24-0
• vs Lamar: won 35-6
• at North Dakota State: won 24-19
• vs Murray State: won 38-7
• vs Youngstown State: won 34-31
• at Indiana State: won 17-3
• vs South Dakota State: lost 37-3
• at Southern Illinois: won 14-7
• vs North Dakota: won 14-10
• at Western Illinois: won 48-6
• vs Sacramento State: won 34-24

Can North Dakota State Crush South Dakota’s Semifinal Dreams?

The winner of this matchup will travel to Missoula, Montana next week to take on #2 seed Montana, who outlasted #7 seed Furman 35-28 in overtime in Friday’s only quarterfinal contest.

For South Dakota to earn that trip, they will have to overcome some prodigious history for North Dakota State.

In 2010, seven years after moving from Division II to the FCS, the Bison made the FCS playoffs for the first time. The next year, they made the semifinals for the first time then went on to defeat Sam Houston State in that year’s championship game.

Since their first championship season, the Bison have made ten further semifinal appearances. In that time, the lone loss is a 2016 loss to James Madison, as the Dukes scored a 27-17 upset of top-seeded NDSU in Fargo.

The Bison may have three losses this season, but since their loss at South Dakota State, they have won four straight games, all in impressive fashion.

In last week’s win at Montana State, NDSU’s defense allowed 509 yards, and quarterback Cam Miller didn’t have his best game. Miller went only 5 of 13 for 66 yards passing and rushed for 15 yards on 15 attempts, and after being sacked only seven times entering the game, he was sacked four times by the Bobcats.

North Dakota State QB Cam Miller This Season vs Last Week

This Season

• Passing: 186 of 254 (73.2%), 2320 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT
• Rushing: 122 attempts, 640 yards (5.2 YPA), 12 TD

Last Week at Montana State

• Passing: 5 of 13 (38.5%), 66 yards, TD
• Rushing: 15 attempts, 15 yards (1.0 YPA), TD

But as they have many times over the years, they made the plays they needed to make when they needed to make them.

With under three minutes left, TK Marshall got loose for a 29-yard touchdown run that tied the game, and after the teams traded touchdowns in overtime, Montana State’s extra point was blocked to give the Bison a thrilling win.

If North Dakota State is allowed to stay in the game, that is how things can turn out. In the first meeting with South Dakota, the Coyotes made the hottest possible start, which enabled them to hold on when the inevitable rally came.

In that matchup, USD scored touchdowns on their first three possessions and jumped out to a 21-3 lead at halftime. They were outscored 16-3 in the second half, but in their lone scoring drive after the break, they held the ball for 8:24 before booting a field goal to go up 24-13.

North Dakota State vs South Dakota Prediction and Pick

Prediction: South Dakota to win

Pick: South Dakota +6.5 (-105 at BetOnline)

The Bison were on the ropes in Bozeman and found a way to win, but can they pull off another great escape if they find themselves in a perilous position again this week? The experience gained in their win in Fargo should help fire the Coyotes to a momentous, memorable victory in Vermillion.

Where to Bet on College Football

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season, including on the two CFP semifinal matchups between Michigan and Alabama and Washington and Texas.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

There are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting. Below are some of the books that we highly recommend:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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