Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Betting: Will the Rebels rebound with resounding road win?

After steamrolling a number of opponents throughout this college football season, Ole Miss got a taste of its own medicine this past Saturday at LSU, who handed the Rebels their first loss.

Will Ole Miss quickly shake off their setback in Baton Rouge? They are on the road again this week, but while they caught the Tigers on the rise, they are catching Texas A&M when the Aggies have either hit rock bottom or don’t have far to go to get there.

While things imploded for the Rebels after taking an early 17-3 lead, the Aggies fell into a hole on the opening kickoff and never recovered in a 30-24 loss at South Carolina.

? 100 YARD KICKOFF RETURN TD ? @GamecockFB pic.twitter.com/1dfEDurzjk

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 22, 2022

It was a third straight loss for the Aggies, and the situation in College Station only continues to devolve, as three players were suspended indefinitely after a “locker room incident” in Columbia. Will Ole Miss take advantage of the current chaos to deliver another damaging defeat to Jimbo Fisher?

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas A&M Aggies Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Ole Miss Rebels (7-1, 3-1 SEC, #15 AP Poll/#12 Coaches Poll) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (3-4, 1-3 SEC)
• Venue & Location: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
• Date: Saturday, October 29, 2022
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time (6:30 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M: SEC Network

Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, October 27 at 5:10 p.m. Eastern.

Spread

• Ole Miss -1.5 (-110)
• Texas A&M +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 54.5 (-110)
• Under 54.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Ole Miss -126
• Texas A&M +105

Will Defense Give Texas A&M a Chance?

Over the last couple of seasons, Ole Miss has put up many an impressive offensive performance in their rise under Lane Kiffin.

It looked like they were well on their way to another one at LSU, as they scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and took just five plays to reach the red zone in their third drive.

But LSU’s defense managed to allow only a field goal on that drive, and it became a much different game after that on both sides of the ball. From that point, the Tigers outscored the Rebels 42-3 on the way to a 45-20 win.

A rushing attack that went in averaging over 285 yards per game and over six yards per attempt was held to just 117 yards on 37 attempts (3.2 yards per attempt), and QB Jaxson Dart was sacked three times after being sacked only twice in the first seven games.

Zach Evans was dealing with a knee injury, so Quinshon Judkins got the lion’s share of the carries, but the Rebels were unable to exert their will on LSU like they have other opponents.

Rushing Statistics for Ole Miss vs. LSU

• RB Quinshon Judkins: 25 attempts, 111 yards, 2 TD
• QB Jaxson Dart: 10 attempts, seven yards
• WR Dayton Wade: one carry, two yards
• RB Ulysses Bentley IV: one carry, -3 yards

A lack of adequate support from the offense has put them under extra pressure, but Texas A&M’s defense has done a lot of good things this season.

After forcing four turnovers in almost upsetting Alabama in Tuscaloosa, the Aggies had two takeaways against South Carolina, giving them more takeaways in their last two games (six) than they had in their first five (five). They also held the Gamecocks to only 13 first downs and 286 total yards.

But as has been the case numerous times over the last couple of seasons, the offense continues to hold back A&M’s potential to prosper.

Against South Carolina, they tallied 23 first downs and outgained the Gamecocks 398-286.

But after allowing the kickoff return touchdown to open the game, they turned the ball over on their first two offensive possessions, which South Carolina converted into a field goal and a touchdown and a 17-0 lead.

The passing game still has yet to turn the corner. Haynes King completed only 17 of his 32 passes and averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt against South Carolina before exiting with injury.

But he remains the starter, with there being no sense in burning Connor Wiegman’s redshirt for the final five games of a season that is already going to fall well short of expectations.

But just as glaring as Texas A&M’s issues on offense are, Ole Miss has similar issues on defense.

They weren’t able to overcome those issues against LSU, as the Tigers tallied 500 total yards (248 passing, 252 rushing), dominated time of possession, and scored six touchdowns on their final eight possessions.

And the Aggies appear to lack direction on offense, they don’t lack talent. Running back Devon Achane had 99 yards on 20 carries and seven catches for 57 yards against South Carolina, his latest impressive performance.

The junior has had at least 20 rushing + receiving touches in each of his last five games and has recorded at 130+ combined rushing + receiving yards in four of his last five games.

Game-by-Game Numbers for Devon Achane

• South Carolina: 20 carries, 99 yards, TD; seven catches, 57 yards
• Alabama: 16 carries, 62 yards; four catches, five yards
• Mississippi State: 16 carries, 111 yards; six catches, 21 yards
• Arkansas: 19 carries, 159 yards, TD; three catches, 15 yards
• Miami (FL): 18 carries, 88 yards; four catches, 42 yards, TD
• Appalachian State: 10 carries, 66 yards, TD; one catch, five yards
• Sam Houston State: 18 carries, 42 yards, TD; one catch, nine yards
• Totals: 117 carries, 627 yards (5.4 yards per carry), 4 TD; 26 catches, 154 yards (5.9 yards per catch), TD

Achane has 26 catches already this season after catching 29 passes in 18 games in his first two seasons at A&M. So, getting him the ball is a priority and should be even more of a priority against a defense he can exploit with his speed.

In their game prior to their visit to LSU, Ole Miss gave up 301 rushing yards against Auburn, and they gave up 262 on the ground in a close shave against Tulsa earlier this season.

Along with a heavy diet of Achane, this matchup is a good opportunity to use King’s mobility well. He’s no Dart or Jayden Daniels, but he can move.

Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Best Bets

Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Texas A&M to win

Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Best Bets: Texas A&M to cover (Best Value: +2 @ -110 at Bovada Sportsbook & BetMGM) & Texas A&M team total over (Best Value: over 26.5 @ -120 at BetUS)

This season has been a major disappointment in so many ways for Texas A&M, and even a strong finish may do only so much to quiet the doubts about Fisher’s ability to deliver.

But this is a game that they most certainly can win, and that is the outcome that I am backing here, behind a big night for Achane.

Ole Miss is vulnerable in areas that A&M can exploit on both offense and defense, and I think the Aggies will do just that.

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