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Penn State vs. Michigan Betting: Wolverines firmly favored for big-time Big Ten tilt
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The best Saturday of the college football season thus far will start bright and early with the first of two all top-ten matchups. Alabama’s trip to Tennessee might be the big draw of the day, but before the third-ranked Tide and sixth-ranked Vols tussle in Knoxville, #10 Penn State will duke it out with #5 Michigan in Ann Arbor.
Penn State has had a rather quiet 5-0 start, but a win at Michigan would bring them a higher ranking and a lot more attention.
The Wolverines haven’t been severely tested by their opposition thus far, save for Maryland’s plucky efforts last month. But they did very, very well to overcome the emotions they faced after running backs coach and legendary Michigan running back Mike Hart suffered a seizure in the first quarter of Saturday’s 31-10 win at Indiana.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines Matchup Information and Betting Odds
Matchup Information
- #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. Michigan Wolverines (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten, #5 AP/#4 Coaches Poll)
- Venue & Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
- Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
- Game Time: 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time
- How to Watch Penn State vs. Michigan: FOX
Penn State vs. Michigan Early Odds
Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.
Spread
- Penn State +6.5 (-102)
- Michigan -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under
- Over 52.5 (-115)
- Under 52.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Penn State +220
- Michigan -275
Penn State vs. Michigan Updated Odds (Friday, October 14)
Game odds are via BetOnline.
Spread
- Penn State +6.5 (-102)
- Michigan -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Penn State +215
- Michigan -265
Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction and Betting Picks
Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction: Michigan to win
Penn State vs. Michigan Picks: Michigan to cover (Best Value: -6.5 @ -110 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Penn State/Michigan under (Best Value: under 52.5 @ -105 at BetOnline)
The big battle in this matchup will be each team’s rushing offense vs. each team’s rushing defense. Both teams are highly productive running the ball but just as stingy with giving up yardage on the ground.
This game will be a big chance for Michigan RB Blake Corum to really thrust himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation. He currently comes in at +2000, giving him the best odds of any non-quarterback (Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs, at +3000, and Alabama LB Will Anderson, at +5000, are the only other non-QBs currently with odds of +5000 or shorter).
Corum has run for 500 yards and four scores in the first three Big Ten games, and there’d be no better nod to his RB coach than to hit the century mark in a win over Penn State, which Hart did not once, not twice, but in all of his games against the Nittany Lions.
Game-by-Game Numbers for Michigan RB Blake Corum (Big Ten Games)
- vs. Maryland: 30 carries, 243 yards, 2 TD
- at Iowa: 29 carries, 133 yards, TD
- at Indiana: 25 carries, 124 yards, TD
While Corum carries most of the load for the Wolverines, the Nittany Lions have a multi-pronged attack with Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Keyvone Lee.
The three combined for 213 yards on 52 carries in Saturday’s 17-7 win over Northwestern, but they also lost four fumbles.
That is a very, very untimely reversal of fortunes from their previous two games, in which they had eight takeaways and zero giveaways against Auburn and Central Michigan.
The success with the ground game has limited what QB Sean Clifford has had to do, but he will likely be needed to do more to at least keep Michigan’s defense honest.
Clifford has two wins in three games against Michigan, but the team that beat him last year and the team he’ll face on Saturday are much, much different than the teams he beat in 2019 and 2020.
That said, the same questions can be asked of Michigan QB JJ McCarthy, who had a career-best performance against Indiana (28 of 36, 304 yards, 3 TD, INT).
Clifford has not been under a lot of duress yet, as he’s been sacked only four times in five games. That will change on Saturday, as he’ll go up against a defense that has 22 sacks this season.
Ultimately, in a battle of two tough teams, Michigan’s defense will make more plays. And when it comes down to it, I have a more faith in Michigan than Penn State to play a cleaner game on offense.
It might take some time for Michigan to pull away, but they will cover and pick up a big win for their College Football Playoff resume.
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