Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds & Picks

Although the 2022 NCAA college football season technically began last week, things really kick off in a few days with Week 1. Among the top first-week matchups is a Big Ten tilt between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Purdue Boilermakers.

Coming ? pic.twitter.com/tCj3rTJWBs

— Purdue Football (@BoilerFootball) August 29, 2022

Both Purdue and Penn State had fairly forgettable 2021 campaigns. Aside from winning the Music City Bowl, the Boilermakers looked like a fairly average team while the Nittany Lions went 4-5 against the Big Ten, ending their season with an Outback Bowl loss to Arkansas.

There’s a lot to take in before the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions meet and, fortunately, Betting News has everything you need from Penn State vs. Purdue betting odds to a prediction for the game.

Penn State vs. Purdue Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions (0-0, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (0-0, 0-0 Big Ten)
• Venue & Location: Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
• Date: Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022
• Game Time: 8 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch Penn State vs. Purdue: FOX

Penn State vs. Purdue Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Penn State Nittany Lions -3.5 (-110)
• Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 53.5 (-110)
• Under 53.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Penn State Nittany Lions -192
• Purdue Boilermakers +155

Penn State Slightly Favored Over Purdue in Week 1

Even though the Boilermakers had a better 2021 campaign compared to their Big Ten rivals, it’s the Nittany Lions that are favored in the Penn State vs. Purdue Week 1 matchup.

On one hand, this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Penn State has had Purdue’s number in the majority of their head-to-head matchups. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 15-3-1 in 19 all-time tilts against the Boilermakers.

If that wasn’t convincing enough, Penn State has won each of the last nine matchups, having not lost to Purdue since October 2004. On top of that, the Nittany Lions have beaten their rivals by at least 24 points in each of the last four meetings.

Penn State and Purdue last met in 2019 and it was a bad game for the Boilermakers, who lost by a final score of 35-7. Even though a lot has changed since then, it’s clear that past results have led to oddsmakers giving the slight edge to the Nittany Lions.

Having said that, Purdue does have the tools to pull off an upset win here. Their offense looks great with Aidan O’Connell, who threw for over 3,700 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first full-time season under center last fall. Even with the loss of wideout David Bell to the 2022 NFL Draft, O’Connell is still talented enough to elevate those around him.

A Boilermakers victory is also possible thanks to a lackluster Penn State offense. Though QB Sean Clifford is decent, his play only resulted in 365.3 total yards per game in 2021 — the No. 90 mark in the entire nation. A big part of that was the ground game only generating an average of 110.1 yards (No. 113).

With both defences being solid, Purdue’s more dynamic offense could wind up being the difference in the end. Having said that, this should be a close game right up to the final whistle and the hometown crowd could wind up being the difference for the Boilermakers.

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Trends

• Penn State is 9-0 straight up in its last nine games against Purdue.
• Purdue is 5-1 straight up in its last six games.
• Penn State is 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 15 games against Purdue.
• Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Big Ten schools.
• The total has hit the under in 12 of Penn State’s last 15 road games.
• The total has hit the under in nine of Purdue’s last 12 games against Penn State.

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction and Picks

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction: Purdue 26, Penn State 21

Penn State vs. Purdue: Purdue ML (Best Value: +155 at BetOnline) & Under 54.5 Points (Best Value: -110 at BetMGM)

Though Penn State has succeeded more often in the past, I’m siding with Purdue here. With a better offense and the home crowd support, I like the Boilermakers’ chances of opening the college football season with an upset win.

Keeping that in mind, taking Purdue on the moneyline is easily the best bet. I’m also taking the total hitting under 54.5 points on BetMGM due to the two Big Ten rivals hitting the under in 75% of their last 12 meetings.

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