#4 Penn State vs USC: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

Big Ten Football is out on the West Coast this weekend, as the Nittany Lions of Penn State head to Los Angeles to take on the USC Trojans. Penn State is 5-0 this season and coming off two straight conference wins. However, this will be their first road game since Week 1. They took down West Virginia in Morgantown, beating them 34-12 to start the season, and have since handled business at home in every game. Can they bring the same fire on the road out West?

The USC Trojans are coming off a bad loss to the Minnesota Gophers on the road. They are now 3-2 overall and 1-2 in conference play. However they are 2-0 at home, beating Utah State and Wisconsin, and also beat LSU in Las Vegas, which was sort of a home game. Aside from Michigan, this will be the toughest defense Miller Moss and the Trojans have seen. But at least they are back at home where they are much more comfortable.

Can Lincoln Riley coach the Trojans into an upset win at home? Or will Penn State roll over USC in the City of Angels?

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Penn State v USC: Nittany Lions vs Trojans Out West

Can Miller Moss and the Trojans bounce back at home?

Matchup Information – Penn State vs USC

• Venue & Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, CA)
• Date: Saturday, October 12th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Penn State -5 (-105)
• USC +5 (-115)

Money Line

• Penn State -195
• USC +170

Total

• Over 50.5 (-117)
• Under 50.5 (-103)

Check out our #1 Texas vs #18 Oklahoma Preview!

Penn State Heads West for Showdown in LA

Will Penn State take down the Trojans on the road?

Penn State has been a bit overshadowed by teams like Texas and Ohio State in my opinion. This team is very good, and while they aren’t very flashy, they play hard nosed, old school football, that would make your grandpa proud. Drew Allar is throwing for just over 220 yards per game, and also has 9 TDs and just one interception in 5 games. He doesn’t have much pressure on him, as he has a pair of running backs who are great at what they do.

Nicholas Singleton has 408 rushing yards, running for over 7.5 per carry with 3 TDs. He’s also added 6 catches for 74 yards and 2 TDs. His counter part, Kaytron Allen has 19 more carries than Singleton, but has 367 yards to his name with 2 TDs. He’s still running for 5 yards per carry and has caught a TD pass as well. Offensively, the Penn State linemen control the line of scrimmage, create holes for their backs and overall make it easy on Allar to succeed.

Defensively, Penn State is just as good. They give up just 11.4 points per game, and less than 235 total yards of offense per contest. Teams have absolutely no success on the ground, and the Nittany Lions usually dominate the time of possession as well. This wears down the opponent’s defense, keeps their offense off the field, and makes them play fast when they do get on the gridiron.

Can USC Keep Up?

However, Moss and the Trojans are capable of doing that.

The Trojans passing defense is very good, ranking just being Penn State in yards allowed per game. However, their rushing defense is what’s going to be tested. Against Minnesota, USC allowed Darius Taylor to run 25 times for 144 yards, although it was Max Brosmer who ran in 3 TDs. Even if Singleton isn’t good to go, Allen is capable of taking over the workload for the Nittany Lions.

I can’t really figure out who wins this game, but my gut tells my Penn State wins it on defense. The Nittany lions defense will certainly win them some games if the offense has an off night, and this weekend could be an example of this. If USC struggles to stop the run, like I expect, it will be a long night for those Trojan defenders.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs USC Trojans Best Bets

Take Kaytron Allen to clear his yards prop this weekend

Penn State vs USC Prediction: Penn State Wins & Covers, Under 50.5

Best Bets: Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-113) BetOnline

Even if Singleton is out, Allen is capable of handling the ground work for the Nittany Lions. And I think there will be plenty of it this weekend. USC has a decent secondary, but their running defense was exposed against Minnesota last weekend, resulting in a loss. Here is how USC has done against good running backs this year.

• John Emery Jr (LSU): 10 carries for 61 yards
• Kahlel Mullings (MICH): 17 carries for 159 yards, 2 TDs
• Donovan Edwards (MICH): 14 carries for 74 yards, 1 TD
• Tawee Walker (WIS): 12 carries for 55 yards, 2 TDS
• Darius Taylor (MINN): 25 carries for 144 yards

With or without Singleton, Allen runs for 5 yards per carry, and the Trojans defense allows that per carry, along with over 150 yards on the ground. Kaytron Allen could be on the cusp of a career day, against a USC defense that is horrendous at stopping the run. Penn State is also going into a bye week, so if they handle business, there would be no reason to bring Singleton back early, resulting in even more touches for Allen.

Allen has cleared this number in 3/5 games this year, including 2 straight, and a game where he ended with 66 yards. I am counting on Singleton seeing minimal time on the field, so I have laddered Allen in the following fashion.

• 69+ Yards (-113): 1 Unit
• 80+ Yards (+140): 0.5 Unit
• 90+ Yards (+220): 0.25 Unit

While it isn’t quite a 2U play, Allen has 100+ yards in 2 games this year, and had 78 his last time out. I think the volume will be enough to get us to the top of this ladder.

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