San Diego State vs. Boise State Week 5 Betting: Back the Broncos, Over in MWC Clash

It’s a new week, which means another slate of NCAA college football games is right around the corner. Week 5 of the 2022 NCAAF schedule includes an MWC showdown between the San Diego State Aztecs and Boise State Broncos.

#WhatsNext ☛ Game 5

? SDSU
?️ Friday, Sept. 30
⏰ 6 PM MThttps://t.co/ySleil49WB | #BleedBlue pic.twitter.com/BDKUGR0yBW

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) September 28, 2022

San Diego State’s season has gone back and forth thus far. The Aztecs now look to continue their momentum following a 17-14 loss to Toledo in their last outing that saw running back Jordan Byrd rush for 115 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 16 carries.

Meanwhile, Boise State had its two-game winning streak snapped by a 27-10 loss to UTEP. The Broncos just couldn’t get anything going in that outing, totalling only 177 total yards while holding the ball for 32.4% of the game.

Here are BetOnline Sportsbook’s latest San Diego State vs Boise State betting odds, as well as a prediction and best bet for the upcoming NCAAF tilt.

San Diego State vs Boise State Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: San Diego State Aztecs (2-2, 0-0 MWC) vs. Boise State Broncos (2-2, 1-0 MWC)
• Venue & Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
• Date: Friday, Sept. 30, 2022
• Game Time: 8 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch San Diego State vs Boise State: FS1

San Diego State vs Boise State Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Friday, Sept. 30 at 8:11 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• San Diego State +6.5 (-114)
• Boise State -6.5 (-106)

Over/Under

• Over 38.5 (-115)
• Under 38.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• San Diego State +205
• Boise State -255

San Diego State vs Boise State Betting Trends

• San Diego State is 5-1 straight up in its last six road games.
• Boise State is 12-2 straight up in its last 14 Week 5 matchups.
• San Diego State is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games against Boise State.
• Boise State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.
• The total has hit the under in eight of San Diego State’s last 12 games played in September.
• The total has hit the under in six of Boise State’s last seven games against the MWC.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos Prediction and Picks

San Diego State vs Boise State Prediction: Boise State 24, San Diego State 18

San Diego State vs Boise State: San Diego State +6.5 (Best Value: -114 at BetOnline) & Over 38.5 Points (Best Value: -115 at BetOnline)

While Boise State might be favored here, it’s San Diego State that’s won both of the last two meetings between the MWC rivals. The most recent matchup took place in November of last year, ending in a 27-16 victory for the Aztecs.

However, it’s a new year and this is a better Broncos team. Boise State has one of the better defenses on paper this season, giving up only 171 passing yards (T-No. 11) and 305 total yards (No. 21) per game.

That could spell bad news for a San Diego State offense that just hasn’t been impressive. The only time that the Aztecs scored more than 20 points in a game this season was when they beat Idaho State — a program that’s now 0-4 — by a score of 38-7 in Week 2.

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— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) September 27, 2022

Since then, San Diego State has only scored 24 points over the last two games. It doesn’t help that the Aztecs have one of the worst aerial attacks in the nation, averaging only 62.3 passing yards per game (No. 130).

The Aztecs rely on their running backs to do the brunt of the offensive work. If the Broncos can find a way to shut their opponent’s backfield down, forcing them to throw the ball more often, a victory should be easier to come back.

At the end of the day, Boise State’s chances of success could hinge on how quarterback Taylen Green performs in his debut on Friday. The freshman QB has thrown out 28 passes in relief this season, connecting on 19 of them for 155 yards while also tossing out an interception.

The good news for Green is that San Diego State allows 259 passing yards (No. 83) and 29 points (No. 73) per game, meaning the Aztecs defense is beatable.

I do expect Boise State’s defense to come up big when it counts, helping the Broncos win at home. Green will have his struggles under center though, making things close — the reason why I’m backing San Diego State on the 6.5-point spread.

Six of the seven all-time San Diego State vs Boise State meetings have also surpassed 38.5 points, which is why I also recommend taking the over for this prop.

Other NCAAF Week 5 Stories on Betting News

• Washington vs UCLA Week 5 Betting: Who’ll Win the Pac-12 Showdown?
• Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Betting: Will the Bulldogs take a bite out of the Aggies yet again?
• Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Betting: Which top-15 SEC squad will emerge victorious in Oxford?
• Oklahoma vs. TCU Betting: Will the Sooners rebound to pass tough test in Fort Worth?